dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks to Dryslot. Roof clearing guy coming tomorrow...easy and at $85, well worth it. Thats a deal, And you will sleep better for it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks. I am sw of HFD so that's worrisome..hopefully we limit the ice accretion to < .5" I'm worried about my parents house in Torrington if the ice threat trends any further north. I couldn't make it home from college this weekend to help them shovel the roof, and they can't do it themselves. My brother's also not really able to get up there and do it. Hates heights lol. We have an older house, so it's slightly worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The sun is starting to do it's dirty deed ..6 weeks after the lowest angle day. Today we have had very light snow all day with sun at times...half inch tops. Actual sheltered temp. hasn't been above 26. That light amount melted right off the roof of my car....nasty. Dom, I feel like we're in a pretty good position for either side of a foot Wed... depending obviously on how much mixing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not bad. Not bad at all. Some of the SREF probability products at the HPC are starting to look pretty bullish. And again, that's not including probably a solid 3-6" between Tuesday and Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It could actually trend strong enough that it wraps far enough W that we see more snow too...kind of some weird possibilities with this one. That kind of happened in 12/16/07...which is why Binghamton and Watertown NY got less snow than BOS. I personally think its going to end up a bit on the colder side. Regardless of what extremely minor trends we've seen today. We were talking at the GTG yesterday (esp Phil and I) about how we seem to have become overly married to the models and its been showing this winter. Almost a sort of "too much information" syndrome. We sometimes mistake little bumps in the models for meaningful trends and we see congrats or rafter posts because of it. Something like Jerry said is simple but may have a lot of merit...big high up there...BOS doesn't usually see prolonged sleet storms...probably will stay either snow for longer or trend warmer and a period of rain...that combo would make me lean toward snow with the high in a great spot. But who knows, this might be the exception. Still a lot of time left. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Seems like zero at this point. Let's hope it stays that way. Yeah. I agree. I agree with many on here that we should favor the colder solutions, with the high to the north, antecedent cold Monday plus a 2-foot snow pack! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jack Suslak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Larry Cosgrove on fb telling me the models have a leftward bias on this storm and is seeing mostly ice for Boston, not the snowier scenario you guys seem to be leaning to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I discovered a friggen leak in my dining room this morning. Red Flag, Shovel off the 1st 6-12' if there is ice built up DON'T chop it, Get some calcium chloride pellets or flake and throw it up there or spread it on the ice to melt it, It will be like a rainstorm running off the roof when the ice melt kicks in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yes, the overnight teleconnectors have recharged the major thaw idea a bit - have to see if this is consistent but ...the snap shot appeal off last night's run would whip-lash season the other direction. I think that will happen, unfortunately...can't expect to shuffle the indecies correctly wall-to-wall and Feb may be the "weak" month, this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It could actually trend strong enough that it wraps far enough W that we see more snow too...kind of some weird possibilities with this one. That kind of happened in 12/16/07...which is why Binghamton and Watertown NY got less snow than BOS. I personally think its going to end up a bit on the colder side. Regardless of what extremely minor trends we've seen today. We were talking at the GTG yesterday (esp Phil and I) about how we seem to have become overly married to the models and its been showing this winter. Almost a sort of "too much information" syndrome. We sometimes mistake little bumps in the models for meaningful trends and we see congrats or rafter posts because of it. Something like Jerry said is simple but may have a lot of merit...big high up there...BOS doesn't usually see prolonged sleet storms...probably will stay either snow for longer or trend warmer and a period of rain...that combo would make me lean toward snow with the high in a great spot. But who knows, this might be the exception. Still a lot of time left. Yeah that's what I meant by occlusion/wrapped up. The euro and GFS sort of hint at that. I'm back and forth, but the old school Andy Tandy rules like big highs in the right spots, sometimes pay off. It's bad to sway your thoughts on each model run..I agree. I think today's runs showed you what could happen if the s/w trends stronger, but this is why I mentioned Ebb and Flow....because it could trend south 20 miles on 00z if the PV is slightly stronger, or the low wraps all the good WAA further west. I'm just kind of talking through different scenarios in my head. Excellent point that Jerry brought up. I can't remember a prolonged sleet event. I'm in the camp that believes it could trend colder, but I have Logan to potentially deal with and that is making life difficult. I hope my gut is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have feet of snow in my yard. It hasn't been above the mid 30s. Yeah still tons of snow on the ground everywhere for sure just saying the mid 30s temps combined with the sun being out the last few days has done a number on the roofs in brookline village. Apt is on the top floor so I've been looking around at the roofs in my area out of curiosity. Definitely agree with you that it's worth it to get someone to do it if you're able to before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost all the snow here blows right off...it's such a windy spot and not much wet snow falls here usually..... But last years 40"+ dump sat on the roof well into March and later I discovered it had been leaking in near where one of the dormers meets the structure. Leaked down and lay on top of the dray wall ceiling..leaving a stain across it. Cost some money to fix that and also have that section of ceiling plastered and repainted etc. I'm worried about my parents house in Torrington if the ice threat trends any further north. I couldn't make it home from college this weekend to help them shovel the roof, and they can't do it themselves. My brother's also not really able to get up there and do it. Hates heights lol. We have an older house, so it's slightly worrisome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well people are tossing numbers around for north and south of the pike, but not so much for BOS. Just curious is all. Wish I could learn to read the models myself. I've learned a lot on these threads. Boston is on the pike...use your imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Organizing Low should do well in the pattern over the next few weeks. im sweating the northern cutoff with this one Jerry.....can see the PV from my back porch window. looking forward to seeing the damage in new england though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My imagination predicts 20" of snow. I don't think that's likely. So my imagination isn't reliable. Boston is on the pike...use your imagination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost all the snow here blows right off...it's such a windy spot and not much wet snow falls here usually..... But last years 40"+ dump sat on the roof well into March and later I discovered it had been leaking in near where one of the dormers meets the structure. Leaked down and lay on top of the dray wall ceiling..leaving a stain across it. Cost some money to fix that and also have that section of ceiling plastered and repainted etc. Yes, Valley and dormers are the likely suspects other then daming, Wet insulation wet stained sheetrock, Can add to a big repair bill...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not bad. wonder what that would look like if they added the next 12 hours in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It could actually trend strong enough that it wraps far enough W that we see more snow too...kind of some weird possibilities with this one. That kind of happened in 12/16/07...which is why Binghamton and Watertown NY got less snow than BOS. I personally think its going to end up a bit on the colder side. Regardless of what extremely minor trends we've seen today. We were talking at the GTG yesterday (esp Phil and I) about how we seem to have become overly married to the models and its been showing this winter. Almost a sort of "too much information" syndrome. We sometimes mistake little bumps in the models for meaningful trends and we see congrats or rafter posts because of it. Something like Jerry said is simple but may have a lot of merit...big high up there...BOS doesn't usually see prolonged sleet storms...probably will stay either snow for longer or trend warmer and a period of rain...that combo would make me lean toward snow with the high in a great spot. But who knows, this might be the exception. Still a lot of time left. I was so happy to hear you tell me yesterday this exact same thing. The best mets are the ones who use all the tools available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The storm drain at the brookline apt has a solid 3" of ice around it from the ground up to the top floor (and growing), if that ever broke loose it would completely crush the cars in the parking lot next to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah that's what I meant by occlusion/wrapped up. The euro and GFS sort of hint at that. I'm back and forth, but the old school Andy Tandy rules like big highs in the right spots, sometimes pay off. It's bad to sway your thoughts on each model run..I agree. I think today's runs showed you what could happen if the s/w trends stronger, but this is why I mentioned Ebb and Flow....because it could trend south 20 miles on 00z if the PV is slightly stronger, or the low wraps all the good WAA further west. I'm just kind of talking through different scenarios in my head. Excellent point that Jerry brought up. I can't remember a prolonged sleet event. I'm in the camp that believes it could trend colder, but I have Logan to potentially deal with and that is making life difficult. I hope my gut is right. This is only my call but I see 90% chance that the models try to get warmer yet across another cycle or 3, only to have them all crash south inside of 48 hours type of deal - we've seen that play out time and time again in these high viscous BL scenarios. With an SPV N and a lower tropospheric +PP anomaly just N of Maine, there is every reason to think the same sort of error correcting will take place this time too. Also - those are about the ugliest photos of me I have ever seen, and I have seen some bad ones - I think the unending single status is finally understood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks to Dryslot. Roof clearing guy coming tomorrow...easy and at $85, well worth it. strong move people with older homes, defintely hope they are assessing their structures you dont want an epic winter turning into a nightmare, thats exacytly what it is when roof damage beings to occur....nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We had one day last week when it got close to or touched 32. Otherwise I'm not recalling any day above 32 since the New Years eve/day period. Not bad to go an entire month without thawing. no jan thaw this year of course it came the day before jan though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is only my call but I see 90% chance that the models try to get warmer yet across another cycle or 3, only to have them all crash south inside of 48 hours type of deal - we've seen that play out time and time again in these high viscous BL scenarios. With an SPV N and a lower tropospheric +PP anomaly just N of Maine, there is every reason to think the same sort of error correcting will take place this time too. Also - those are about the ugliest photos of me I have ever seen, and I have seen some bad ones - I think the unending single status is finally understood. Oh man, John.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Red Flag, Shovel off the 1st 6-12' if there is ice built up DON'T chop it, Get some calcium chloride pellets or flake and throw it up there or spread it on the ice to melt it, It will be like a rainstorm running off the roof when the ice melt kicks in Yeah, this happened 2 years ago as well. Getting it cleared tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Larry Cosgrove on fb telling me the models have a leftward bias on this storm and is seeing mostly ice for Boston, not the snowier scenario you guys seem to be leaning to. i saw someone posted LC map that had the storm track right up the St lawrence valley been here most of my life, aint happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JulieRI Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanls for the calcium chloride tip - hubby is now going out to get some. Red Flag, Shovel off the 1st 6-12' if there is ice built up DON'T chop it, Get some calcium chloride pellets or flake and throw it up there or spread it on the ice to melt it, It will be like a rainstorm running off the roof when the ice melt kicks in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Im not completely crazy to say 1-2 feet for my school. What an epic winter for me. Everywhere I go gets buried. Should have written a book about this winter, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thankfully the Euro isn't very good in that range. the euro was the only model that got this week's 500mb setup right at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanls for the calcium chloride tip - hubby is now going out to get some. I called home depot looking for a roof rake (knowing the answer already), but before I could ask the question the guy picked up the phone and said "no shovels, rock salt, snow blowers, or roof rakes. how can I help you?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How much of a "lull" is it on the euro? I know Will was saying that the 2 events are almost combined now but is there significant accumulation Tuesday night? On most other runs it seemed the tuesday event was over between 00z and 18z wednesday and there was like a 9 hour break with just -sn before some moderate to heavy snow starts 12z Wednesday. So what does the euro show for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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