dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ah. The day 3 congrats jinx. Better then bieng in the bullseye this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z runs thus far have come in just a nudge warmer. GFS probably gets PVD to 34 or so at the surface. This is definitely shaping up an event when NW RI sticks at 28-31 and sleet/zr while WST is in the upper 30s. 12z GFS gets BID to 45F before crashing. When the GFS only gets PVD to 34..that spells toruble.since it's always biased so warm in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah...I'm j/k. It'll be a major thump. Not to be a weenie, but do you have the specific QPF up here? I have the 1-2" contour, but it's really widespread from BML to 40N. No the SV peeps do, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 well that was disheartening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hevay heavy snowshower in progress.. Big fat flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Oops and Dryslot. Can't get 'em all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No the SV peeps do, unfortunately. OK...thanks. Dryslot will hook us NNE peeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still not seeing the PV relax that much. I would think that the cold air wins out more than what the models indicate. Where the 850's on the Euro get to the pike, I think that the MA/CT line maybe what verifies. Also, with low level cold air, I have a hard time believing anyone from 84 north would see anything besides snow/sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So ... what's QPF looking like around these parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12+ hours of sleet for parts of CT and MA?? 8-14 of sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No the SV peeps do, unfortunately. 1.00"-1.25" Southern NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 When the GFS only gets PVD to 34..that spells toruble.since it's always biased so warm in these setups Pretty much agree. 34 on the GFS at PVD is really 31-32 at best, always overdoes the warmth. But another tick north (still 60hrs out) and, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OK...thanks. Dryslot will hook us NNE peeps up. 1+ VT/NH-CAN border straight east. Everywhere S of that line.1.25+ for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So ... what's QPF looking like around these parts? 1.00" for us. Brian is 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 well that was disheartening. Hopefully the Plains s/w doesn't trend stronger. That kind of did it today, but the end result wasn't as bad as one would expect...thank to the PV. Still got 60+ hours here to figure things out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 8-14 of sleet? Sleet is generally a 3:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 8-14 of sleet? I'm probably 10 miles from joining you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12+ hours of sleet for parts of CT and MA?? This is gonna be a tough forecast here. I'm leaning more snowy, but I def think we'll be flirting with pingers. Its interesting that most guidance now has what I was kind of describing yesterday....a period where the high fights back along with dynamics and we actually see the mid-levels cool slightly for a few hours. The insane direct flow from Maine and those thicknesses not getting over 546 is still a red flag for me on how this could go on future guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1+ VT/NH-CAN border straight east. Everywhere S of that line.1.25+ for you. Thanks Jerry. Hopefully you guys put up quite a fight with that mid-level warming. Should be a nice net gain down there regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 8-14 of sleet? How much is on your roof currently? You need to do the deck today. Why chance it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm probably 10 miles from joining you. At least sleet isn't too heavy for infrasturcture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Pretty much agree. 34 on the GFS at PVD is really 31-32 at best, always overdoes the warmth. But another tick north (still 60hrs out) and, yeah. Also a benefit how quickly ocean temps have cooler. PVD right now is only at 33 with a wind off the water, while inland has spiked to 36-37. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If half of my qpf is sleet I don't think it will be possible to clear it without machinery. Need to lift high over the banks to put it somewhere..... Even if it's straight snow it will be rough but adding substantial sleet will make it nearly impossible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 OK...thanks. Dryslot will hook us NNE peeps up. Dendrite, you look to be right around 1.25"... give or take... by hour 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How much is on your roof currently? You need to do the deck today. Why chance it? 1-2 feet on the roof..depending on where the wind blew some of it off.. And there's also some ice in it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1.00" for us. Brian is 1.25" Ok, not as much as I was expecting but nothing to sneeze at. Sounds like an expansive 1" band, too. Screw that tight gradient from last weeks storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Out of our area but blizz watches posted for chitown and surrounding areas. IN EXCESS OF A FOOT AND A HALF OR MORE OF SNOW WILL NOT BE UNCOMMON OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHWEST INDIANA. SNOWFALL RATES UP TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE PROBABLE AT THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM TUESDAY NIGHT. Not to be too weenie but this looks to have the potential of one of the great winter storms of all time in terms of how broad of an impact it has across the entire US from the plains all the way to new england with a combo of heavy snow, heavy ice, wind, and even strong storms in the warm sector. I'd love to hear one of the weather historians put the potential in perspective in terms of another storm that has had such a broad impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1-2 feet on the roof..depending on where the wind blew some of it off.. And there's also some ice in it too Not kidding here, But you need to do that roof, Thats alot of pressure on the valleys.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If half of my qpf is sleet I don't think it will be possible to clear it without machinery. Need to lift high over the banks to put it somewhere..... Even if it's straight snow it will be rough but adding substantial sleet will make it nearly impossible... Shoveling sand sucks, gonna have to stay right on top of this, out every hour shoveling deal, straight sleet or FRZA , whatever falls flash freezes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1-2 feet on the roof..depending on where the wind blew some of it off.. And there's also some ice in it too If you have a way of removing it you should. And if you do happen to sleet, you are going to have a bear of a time clearing off your driveway and throwing the sleet over your personal mountain range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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