MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah... just my new fetish... not sure how to back it out, or if it is possible. DGEX time machine fail No backing it out; it starts at hour 84. Always good for a QPF bomb, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You're probably going to get your mashed potato snow fetish fulfilled in this one. Too cold. Mash potatoes are really more for when the lower levels are mild. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You're probably going to get your mashed potato snow fetish fulfilled in this one. I'm highly confident of a MA pike gradient in the mid levels and a cf attributed LLV gradient near rt 128. I could be wrong, but I feel good about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You're probably going to get your mashed potato snow fetish fulfilled in this one. I'm not so sure of that. Memory of similar setups suggests it's not that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 MET has been very good for awhile now. During last summer's heatwaves, it cleaned MAV's clock. However during the most recent extreme cold, MAV won the battle. Maybe the colder biased model does better when the cold is real? I generally find the MAV to be better. I think it has more of a statistical history over the MET right now. Ironically I found the MET to outperform the MAV during the last arctic outbreak so it's funny how 2 people can perceive a different thing from the same info. Maybe the MAV was better down there...I didn't look a lot for BOS. The MET tends to do very well with those low level cold shots from arctic highs. It was consistent on having the heart of the cold come in that Sun night and keeping a single digit high here for Monday. The places that decouple like mad leaned toward the colder MAV temps in NH from what I remember though.It's too bad they killed the NGM MOS. It had a "brain" going back many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 YeaH talking exact snow amounts right now is a fruitless task for the most part. I mean I guess you could throw out very general numbers. Most are probably looking good for 4"+ because of that front runner appetizer...but what happens after that is very uncertain other than there's going to be a crap load of winter precip...the type is what's tough to figure out at this juncture. The take it FWIW part should be 1) Probably a sick gradient on either side of I-90 by about 20-30 miles. and 2) All snow areas are probably going to get a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm highly confident of a MA pike gradient in the mid levels and a cf attributed LLV gradient near rt 128. I could be wrong, but I feel good about that. If there is a CF, it's going to be pegged pretty far south I think. Maybe for 3-5 hrs it gets to Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah... just my new fetish... not sure how to back it out, or if it is possible. DGEX time machine fail Well the DGEX continues running off of the GFS from the 84hr NAM. So you're only going to get 84hr+.You'd want to combine the 6z NAM snow with the 6z DGEX snow to get the 192hr total, but that's worth several frankfurters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If there is a CF, it's going to be pegged pretty far south I think. Maybe for 3-5 hrs it gets to Jerry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hoping for fluff, but I'm a bit nervous about crappy snowgrowth with the midlevels fairly marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You won't need CF. You've been fine without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GYX Snowfall, 14.1" Nam 16.6" GFS KAUG 13.0" Nam 19.0" GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GEFS suggest a continued cross polar flow into NOAM. Canada and the northern tier of the USA should have plenty of deep cold to tap. Time to cash in our lattitude for some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hoping for fluff, but I'm a bit nervous about crappy snowgrowth with the midlevels fairly marginal. Take 10:1 and like it. LOL, you're sitting pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GYX Snowfall, 14.1" Nam 16.6" GFS Holla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GYX Snowfall, 14.1" Nam 16.6" GFS Yummy! I imagine coastal areas will see some wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 , . . Can I officially start crying, and having a fit about my area being bombarded with sleet and rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Holla Yummy! I imagine coastal areas will see some wind? I threw KAUG in there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I threw KAUG in there as well I had SFM at 1.17 and 1.20. Do you have those numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I threw KAUG in there as well 19 inches at KAUG on the weenie site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 , . . Can I officially start crying, and having a fit about my area being bombarded with sleet and rain? Yes. But thank god for subforums this year, or you'd have DC weenies frothing and attacking like Zombies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 , . . Can I officially start crying, and having a fit about my area being bombarded with sleet and rain? Well, at least your pack can absorb some of that... Then all of Brooklyn (oops) will slide into a ravine of melted snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Take 10:1 and like it. LOL, you're sitting pretty. agree. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yummy! I imagine coastal areas will see some wind? The winds didn't seem to be a big deal. 25 kts maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z CMC is much slower ejecting energy out of the SW late in the week, giving time for confluence to weaken over us, and allowing for another significant storm to cut north on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I had SFM at 1.17 and 1.20. Do you have those numbers? No, Its not a reporting station like mine here, I have PWM though 12.3" Nam 14.3" GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think this could be really bad here. We were 5-10 degrees colder than forecast for much of the ice storm a couple of weeks ago. This looks colder, with more QPF, with trees and houses more snowloaded and traumatized than before. I like the idea that we don't lose our snowpack, but I'm worried this could cause some lasting damage. Is there any recent precedent for this kind of ice storm on top of this magnitude snowpack down here? If not, this could test structures in a way that hasn't been seen in decades. Don't buy into all this ice talk in CT..It's mostly snow..with maybe some sleet at the height Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes. But thank god for subforums this year, or you'd have DC weenies frothing and attacking like Zombies. Stormtracker's batphone just rang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I threw KAUG in there as well Do you have a link where I can find amounts for KIWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 19 inches at KAUG on the weenie site. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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