DomNH Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We get 5-8'' from the overrunning, but part 2 looks pretty warm on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think those of us in CNE will do fine. The 18z DGEX will be good weenie fodder when it comes out in a bit. Is this your way of saying I might not be ok? lol I feel pretty good about this one. Just taking stock of this Winter so far it's been a relentless assault cold/snow. It looks to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 From Box's AFD: SO THE PRESENT FCST THINKING IS THIS...PREV FCST EXPERIENCE AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY INCLUDED...THE GEM MDL SOLN SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. FOR THE GOING FCST WILL BLEND THE TRIO OF MDL SOLNS...GEM/ECMWF/GFS... WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS THE GEM. FROM SUCH THINKING THE PSBL OUTCOME IS THE FOLLOWING...STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINNING TUE MORN OF WARMER...HIGHER THETAE AIR...WILL LIFT NWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC WRM FRNT TUE MORN INTO WED NGT. ONSET MAY BE DELAYED TUE MORN BY THE COLDER AND DRIER LOW-MID LVL AIR IN ASSOC WITH THE RETREATING ARCTIC RIDGE. DRIER AIR MAY PREVENT SNOW ALOFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN WED MORN INTO MIDDAY FOR INTERIOR LOCALES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...MORE OR LESS RAIN FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...CAPE AND ISLANDS...CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW INTO WED NGT. BEST DYNAMIC MID-LVL FORCING IN ASSOC WITH PASSING SFC LOW LOOKS PREVALENT AROUND THE WED NGT TIMEFRAME...SO THIS COULD BE THE TIMEFRAME OF HEAVIEST SNOWS TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW. BUT AGAIN ATTENTION IS DESERVED TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT GUIDANCE AND FCSTS WILL CHANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM. FEEL A MEDIUM LVL OF CONFIDENCE IN GOING TRENDS...YET LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES SUCH AS PRECIP TYPE AND TRANSITIONS. REFER TO THE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND GEM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSES INTO THE FCST RGN IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM. ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW Interesting, weighting cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is this your way of saying I might not be ok? lol I feel pretty good about this one. Just taking stock of this Winter so far it's been a relentless assault cold/snow. It looks to continue. Huh? I consider you CNE with me. You'll get a lot of snow as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Huh? I consider you CNE with me. You'll get a lot of snow as usual. Were all in it together..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Huh? I consider you CNE with me. You'll get a lot of snow as usual. Good, Ray long ago banished me from SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is really digging (not more suppressed), going neg tilt, no signs of a secondary popping at t+84, it doesn't look good at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is really digging (not more suppressed), going neg tilt, no signs of a secondary popping at t+84, it doesn't look good at all I would not get real shook up over an 18z nam run at hr 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is really digging (not more suppressed), going neg tilt, no signs of a secondary popping at t+84, it doesn't look good at all Does look like a big mess for us on the CP but I'm not exactly sure how much further north it could go with the monster PV and confluence up there blocking its progression. Might need to dig out the ski helmet if we keep getting the torched 850s heavy IP yuck. Compare the 18z 84 hr NAM with the 90 HR 12z of other runs - there are sig differences so I wouldn't sweat it too much yet. I'm certainly not expecting 100% snow for this one but I am thinking 100% frozen is pretty likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is really digging (not more suppressed), going neg tilt, no signs of a secondary popping at t+84, it doesn't look good at all A bit N of and stronger than GFS 90, but ............its the NAM 18z at 84h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Huh? I consider you CNE with me. You'll get a lot of snow as usual. I think many of the W. Ma. folks probably qualify as more CNE than SNE. Especially those of us W. of the river and N. of Rt 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think many of the W. Ma. folks probably qualify as more CNE than SNE. Especially those of us W. of the river and N. of Rt 2. Yes i would think thats right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would not get real shook up over an 18z nam run at hr 84. Yeah remember what it was doing about a week and a half ago with the SWFE on 1/18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah remember what it was doing about a week and a half ago with the SWFE on 1/18? Thats right, Although this is a differnt beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i love the dgex snow map through 192 hrs..hec even the folks in the mid atlantic will love it! well the next two days as the arctic high settles in will tell the tale i guess..if its a good strong arctic high like everyone seems to think it will be then maybe this will get shunted way south over time. I am ready for some ahp to stop this torch going on out there right now. clipper fail lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think many of the W. Ma. folks probably qualify as more CNE than SNE. Especially those of us W. of the river and N. of Rt 2. Yeah, I think N of Rt. 2 is pretty much the cutoff between SNE and CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chim chiminey Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Does look like a big mess for us on the CP but I'm not exactly sure how much further north it could go with the monster PV and confluence up there blocking its progression. True, but we're only talking 50-100 miles from crippling snow and ice, to decimating the snowpack and catastrophic flooding with temps in the upper 50s. The more the system digs, the more opportunity there is for the PV to recede north... which is a worrisome possibility given the surging NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 True, but we're only talking 50-100 miles from crippling snow and ice, to decimating the snowpack and catastrophic flooding with temps in the upper 50s. The more the system digs, the more opportunity there is for the PV to recede north... which is a worrisome possibility given the surging NAO lol @ upper 50's, I think you're being dramatic... 50-100 miles north wouldn't toast us that bad - we'd dry slot and end up in the mid-upper 30s most likely then flash freeze as the arctic high drops in after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DGEX hitting the orographics with the main course hard. Congrats VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DGEX hitting the orographics with the main course hard. Congrats VT. Nice weenie run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nice weenie run I'm starting to get stoked. Now that we have the JMA and the DGEX working in concert this is a done deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm starting to get stoked. Now that we have the JMA and the DGEX working in concert this is a done deal. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm starting to get stoked. Now that we have the JMA and the DGEX working in concert this is a done deal. you made me look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Around 5 inches on Tuesday on the NAM... Another 15-18 on the DGEX... WOOSH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I like how the Nothern/Interior guys are breaking off into a seperate faction. I'm liking this whole look. Think we end up in the sweet spot. Agreed. Only concern here is that we're still several days out. Boy--almost hit freezing here today. 31.6. too close for comfort. lol 28.5/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am pumped that we have so much to track. I am confident/hopeful things will trend colder and we will get hammered.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 you made me look. Juicy at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Agreed. Only concern here is that we're still several days out. Boy--almost hit freezing here today. 31.6. too close for comfort. lol 28.5/16 31.8F here for a high, I think we will see a decent event up here tue/weds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Agreed. Only concern here is that we're still several days out. Boy--almost hit freezing here today. 31.6. too close for comfort. lol 28.5/16 We're inside 100hrs so not that far.Snow and Arctic cold shots populate our future as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z gfs not as bullish with qpf as nam was on tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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