TheCloser24 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does waterbury,ct have to be worried about a crippling ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Some of them even ping us. The ETA members were ridiculous with the snowfall though. I like seeing a few ping us...we want to be as close as possible to the changeover area, while still safely snow to get those 18+ amounts that are looking likely for someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I agree with that. If I was in BOS or ORH I'd feel pretty good. Tolland and Bradley could luck out if things tick a hair colder but I think I'm pretty much out of an all or mainly snow threat. Is it wrong to want 1" of ZR after 2-4" of snow on Tuesday? Lol...nah, the level of impact with the huge issues already around would be interesting to see. I said yesterday that part of me out of pure morbid curiosity would want to see what would happen to the infrastructure if we got an inch of ice on top of what already has happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I agree with that. If I was in BOS or ORH I'd feel pretty good. Tolland and Bradley could luck out if things tick a hair colder but I think I'm pretty much out of an all or mainly snow threat. Is it wrong to want 1" of ZR after 2-4" of snow on Tuesday? If you want to watch your state collapse into a state of total disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does waterbury,ct have to be worried about a crippling ice storm? I'd say waterbury could be in big trouble, but I'll defer to Ryan on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just catching up on reading here. Looks like it is still looking good up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 They are trending south 3z vs 9z. Reserve the spot in Brookline... Its an open res, fully flexible and changeable...and a first class place I might add. I think we are both looking really really golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'd say waterbury could be in big trouble, but I'll defer to Ryan on that. Yeah they look like they could be in the cross hairs to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Models seem to suggest a major sleet bastard for far NW CT and SW MA. NW MA above KPSF may actually stay mostly snow, with a few pingers at the height of the storm. This will likely be a primarily latitudinal gradient in these parts, as opposed to the past several storms which had a considerably larger longitudinal gradient. As always, orographics will probably play a bit of a role, but it will probably be fairly minor compared to most nor'easters. I could see a scenario where areas along the CT border get 6 inches of white sugar, while areas along the VT border get over a foot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 dang that GGEM looks toasty...anyone want to confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'd say waterbury could be in big trouble, but I'll defer to Ryan on that. Yeah I agree. I think "crippling" is probably overstated as crippling ice storms are pretty rare around here but it certainly could be a high impact ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah they look like they could be in the cross hairs to me. yeah, I was thinking ice jackpot there...but like you said I could see it 30 miles either way at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So Ryan where in CT could there be a major ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah they look like they could be in the cross hairs to me. HFD to OXC and over to MMK seem ground zero for ZR heaven on Wednesday lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah it will probably under do snowfall in the zone that is just barely N of the sleet line as any layer close to 0C (even if still under it) will reduce snowfall quickly in the algorithms. I think the tough part is trying to figure out where this gradient sets up. The arctic high and cold air source is so impressive...more impressive than in 12/16/07 (which was pretty impressive)....but the juiced system to our southwest is also pretty potent...so opposing forces battling it out. My gut tells me this ends up on the snowier side of guidance for a BOS-ORH line...and then working the gradient south from there. Yeah the GFS algorithm can be funky with marginal setups in my experience, but I think the GFS and the NAM have the right idea about one heck of a gradient wrt snowfall. That 1031 high north of Maine is in a beautiful spot...perfect.Of course this doesn't directly relate to mid level temps, but you know how models sometimes respond in a more colder fashion eventually, when these happen. I feel pretty good that if the GFS track happened verbatim, I'd probably see more snow than the GFS depicts. Of course if this amps up more, then all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone want to guess on a snow total amount for Boston/Brookline? Or how about one of these ranges: 0-4 4-8 8-12 12+ And how much IP and/or ZR should I expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12z GGEM has come more NW again. 1001 primary over CLE at 72hr and then 999 just E of BOS at 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 yeah, I was thinking ice jackpot there...but like you said I could see it 30 miles either way at this point. forecasting the exact location of the heaviest ice is such a crap shoot. Potential is certainly there across a good chunk of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Canadian loves the sleet and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 dunno how much it has shrunk in the last couple days, but 20 at least I think. Reassuring sound of ice dams being removed from my roof. Got a guy over here this morning....and he's coming back Thursday to get the new snow off. How did he get the dams out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 dang that GGEM looks toasty...anyone want to confirm? Looks like BOS is in the middle of the 540-546dm thkns at 72hr and the highest the GFS gets is 546dm at 78hr. So it's probably not much different. Of course we can't see the 78hr GGEM yet (or at least I can't). It's come more in line with the other models more than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 dang that GGEM looks toasty...anyone want to confirm? It does. But juicy as well. Lots of sleet in that setup. Rest assured of one thing, low levels aren't warming this event so the issue for our location is sleet or snow. And I believe it would mostly snow at this point with maybe sleet during peak warming for a relatively short time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Models seem to suggest a major sleet bastard for far NW CT and SW MA. NW MA above KPSF may actually stay mostly snow, with a few pingers at the height of the storm. This will likely be a primarily latitudinal gradient in these parts, as opposed to the past several storms which had a considerably larger longitudinal gradient. As always, orographics will probably play a bit of a role, but it will probably be fairly minor compared to most nor'easters. I could see a scenario where areas along the CT border get 6 inches of white sugar, while areas along the VT border get over a foot of snow. Thanks for the West perspective Mitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How did he get the dams out. with a fookin pickaxe dude! There was a thick one at the seam of a 1st floor roof and 2nd floor wall that likely caused the leak I came home to. That one was thick so he chipped it away totally. The dams on the edges of the roof will be handled by removing the snow above and removing some of the ice to create channels for the melting to flow. This sorta ****e can be a nightmare and I highly recommend everyone getting the snow off their roof given this coming storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 forecasting the exact location of the heaviest ice is such a crap shoot. Potential is certainly there across a good chunk of CT. Some of those hilly areas in sw ct look awful in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Robust snow numbers in MEX for many. BOS has 2, 4, and 8. Some have 4,6,8 further NW. But even down to the Cape there is a decent snow signal latter part of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 forecasting the exact location of the heaviest ice is such a crap shoot. Potential is certainly there across a good chunk of CT. Heavy rain on the shore or do we ice for an extended period as well? Thanks because I need to think about clearing my office roof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I drove down to New York yesterday. The potholes on the Deegan and Cross Bronx around Yankee Stadium are absolutely horrible!! I stopped in West Haven to look at the snow cover there and absolutely could not believe, absolutely could not believe how much snow was on the ground there...right smack on the Sound. Historic. Epic. 100 miles east I only have 4-5 inches on the ground here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Heavy rain on the shore or do we ice for an extended period as well? Thanks because I need to think about clearing my office roof. SE CT probably changes to rain. Really really hard for them to get big ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 guess the colder trend is over for now...sucks i want another big snowstorm...i want to be like ct and nyc this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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