Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wednesday is my birthday so im hoping for a good present out of this! Mother nature **** on me for my birthday last year...2/23/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12/16/07 forecast nightmare for someone in a narrow corridor. No nightmare up here man. Just snow baby. I would like to volunteer to be your easy part of the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ice ice ice ice ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I got hooked up for 2/11/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 probably a major ice storm for Hartford verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 probably a major ice storm for Hartford verbatim. kevin better hope the low level cold is deep enough for sleet at his place... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Its going to be just about impossible for anyone not along the immediate shore line to go to rain in this over SNE...when the GFS only brings the sfc frz line to PVD, you know its cold air mass. That model is awful with CAD and even its cruddy resolution is seeing it on this setup. The only way anyone outside of the south coast or Cape goes to rain is if this low rips up into central NY and the triple point low is late to the party...but given this airmass with that high position and the deep snow pack all the way to the ocean, I don't see it happening. right yeah that makes sense. I noticed that even though there was a bit more nosing of warm air in the mid levels on this run...the high and the confluence is even more ideal to keep areas further south below freezing at the surface. You can see the CAD even more over New England on the latest run...must be impressive to show up on a global model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Most certainly you wouldn't. Scott, about to leave to ski for a few hours, what's your prognosis based on the 12zGFS? Mostly snow or do I get 6" of pl sugar? It looks like a brief period of taint to me but I'm not to be trusted.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 kevin better hope the low level cold is deep enough for sleet at his place... yeah no kidding. someone just south of where the PL sets up is going to get one nasty ice storm after 2"-4" on Tuesday. Feb 1994 shifted north by 75 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Unfortunately (for us) this will be one of those storms where BOS is ripping +SN and TOL and HFD are a paint peeling +PL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 kevin better hope the low level cold is deep enough for sleet at his place... Looking at the HFD sounding verbatim, he would probably be pelting at his house further NE toward the cold air source as HFD is a cold ZR, not too far from sleet. BDL north of HFD actually looks like a lot more sleet. I was looking at ORH sounding and its nearly all snow...does get some sleet for a period....but man, what a gradient in the level/depth of that cold air. The gradient is so tight that I was thinking about how being 3-4 miles N of the airport latitude might actually matter in this. Of course this is all speculation...I wouldn't be surprised if these gradients setup 30 miles north or south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6Z/12Z trends: Boston's going to have to figure out some way to keep walkways open. Oy! (but bring it!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 you guys see srefs? 1.25+ for all, 1.5+ for many. perhaps a bit more to come for easties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not me in VT Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Do you think central shoreline of connecticut will go to plan in rain or do we have an ice storm? Also Do you think the models will tick cooler with time? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 you guys see srefs? 1.25+ for all, 1.5+ for many. perhaps a bit more to come for easties Some of them even ping us. The ETA members were ridiculous with the snowfall though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 you guys see srefs? 1.25+ for all, 1.5+ for many. perhaps a bit more to come for easties Nice probs for us to get 8+, but it is at the end of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Do you think central shoreline of connecticut will go to plan in rain or do we have an ice storm? Also Do you think the models will tick cooler with time? Thanks. Too early to say. Probably will go to rain though at some point after ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looking at the HFD sounding verbatim, he would probably be pelting at his house further NE toward the cold air source as HFD is a cold ZR, not too far from sleet. BDL north of HFD actually looks like a lot more sleet. I was looking at ORH sounding and its nearly all snow...does get some sleet for a period....but man, what a gradient in the level/depth of that cold air. The gradient is so tight that I was thinking about how being 3-4 miles N of the airport latitude might actually matter in this. Of course this is all speculation...I wouldn't be surprised if these gradients setup 30 miles north or south. These sw flow events are pretty fascinating. It could just be a few miles between good snow and disaster. If you're a tick north of the main gradient maybe you get mostly snow with a period of pingers. If you are a tick south of the gradient you get snow to sleet but perhaps more in the way of fzra...ie...maybe the "mainly sleet" corridor will be narrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 you guys see srefs? 1.25+ for all, 1.5+ for many. perhaps a bit more to come for easties Yea.. really juicy. Get ready For a 2 day 12-24" snowbomb Mahk! What do You have on the ground.. there's still about 15-20" here. Could be looking at 40" by storms end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS has a mega snow gradient..lol Almost 20" near the NH border to 6" near BOS. Probably underdone in BOS, but still...huge gradient sets up just nw of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS has a mega snow gradient..lol Almost 20" near the NH border to 6" near BOS. Probably underdone in BOS, but still...huge gradient sets up just nw of the city. Ray is going to be all over this one, snowpack climo fears be damned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS has a mega snow gradient..lol Almost 20" near the NH border to 6" near BOS. Probably underdone in BOS, but still...huge gradient sets up just nw of the city. The trend continues to be our friend. A few more ticks and we're in the big time huge snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yea.. really juicy. Get ready For a 2 day 12-24" snowbomb Mahk! What do You have on the ground.. there's still about 15-20" here. Could be looking at 40" by storms end.. dunno how much it has shrunk in the last couple days, but 20 at least I think. Reassuring sound of ice dams being removed from my roof. Got a guy over here this morning....and he's coming back Thursday to get the new snow off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ray is going to be all over this one, snowpack climo fears be damned. He's fine. He should be happy where he stands for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS has a mega snow gradient..lol Almost 20" near the NH border to 6" near BOS. Probably underdone in BOS, but still...huge gradient sets up just nw of the city. ray has gotta love his locale for this one. hubbardson dave as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS has a mega snow gradient..lol Almost 20" near the NH border to 6" near BOS. Probably underdone in BOS, but still...huge gradient sets up just nw of the city. Yeah it will probably under do snowfall in the zone that is just barely N of the sleet line as any layer close to 0C (even if still under it) will reduce snowfall quickly in the algorithms. I think the tough part is trying to figure out where this gradient sets up. The arctic high and cold air source is so impressive...more impressive than in 12/16/07 (which was pretty impressive)....but the juiced system to our southwest is also pretty potent...so opposing forces battling it out. My gut tells me this ends up on the snowier side of guidance for a BOS-ORH line...and then working the gradient south from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah it will probably under do snowfall in the zone that is just barely N of the sleet line as any layer close to 0C (even if still under it) will reduce snowfall quickly in the algorithms. I think the tough part is trying to figure out where this gradient sets up. The arctic high and cold air source is so impressive...more impressive than in 12/16/07 (which was pretty impressive)....but the juiced system to our southwest is also pretty potent...so opposing forces battling it out. My gut tells me this ends up on the snowier side of guidance for a BOS-ORH line...and then working the gradient south from there. I agree with that. If I was in BOS or ORH I'd feel pretty good. Tolland and Bradley could luck out if things tick a hair colder but I think I'm pretty much out of an all or mainly snow threat. Is it wrong to want 1" of ZR after 2-4" of snow on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 These sw flow events are pretty fascinating. It could just be a few miles between good snow and disaster. If you're a tick north of the main gradient maybe you get mostly snow with a period of pingers. If you are a tick south of the gradient you get snow to sleet but perhaps more in the way of fzra...ie...maybe the "mainly sleet" corridor will be narrow? Yeah it probably will be given the gradient in the MLs. You could go from what you described as mostly snow with some minor sleet contamination to a full blown ice storm (after initial light snows) within 30 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 you guys see srefs? 1.25+ for all, 1.5+ for many. perhaps a bit more to come for easties They are trending south 3z vs 9z. Reserve the spot in Brookline... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I agree with that. If I was in BOS or ORH I'd feel pretty good. Tolland and Bradley could luck out if things tick a hair colder but I think I'm pretty much out of an all or mainly snow threat. Is it wrong to want 1" of ZR after 2-4" of snow on Tuesday? Nah. Id rather have a nice layer of zr then rain. It might be pretty cool to have zr on top of 2'-3' of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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