MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 MPM, is that you? lol ... was wondering if that might be somebody's response. Just relaying what the models show. Heavy heavy snow-for-all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Meanwhile, -sn continues to fall here. Perfect Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOL... a 12-24" "blizzard" for me... Where is your map... the fate of thousands is in your hands! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'd be surprised if you and I get winds sustained over 20kt. I don't want high winds ruining my dendrites! I want heavy straight falling snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 He Ping Ping will be tossing the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS is way amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 He Ping Ping will be tossing the 12z GFS. Alot of snow here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS might be a hair colder than 06z and definitely colder than 00z. I like the PV further east in ME, despite the s/w in the Plains looking a little sharper on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 only .2 Tuesday...too warm...toss it.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Where is your map... the fate of thousands is in your hands! Hahaha....working on it now...I've had close to a thousand hits already today, snow=good for the website! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS might be a hair colder than 06z and definitely colder than 00z. I like the PV further east in ME, despite the s/w in the Plains looking a little sharper on this run. The ML warming just runs into a brick wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS might be a hair colder than 06z and definitely colder than 00z. I like the PV further east in ME, despite the s/w in the Plains looking a little sharper on this run. Looks like the mid-levels get a bit warmer down here and south of the Pike. That high is in a perfect position to keep mostly everyone below freezing at the surface for the whole event though. (546 line gets farther north..especially in Western Mass at 78 hours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The ML warming just runs into a brick wall. LOL, it's so freaking close on the soundings. I mean a few tenths of a degree or a few microbars of lift, could mean S+ or IP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The H8 nose is a little warmer than 6z on this run for most of us. It isn't much, but you can see it when comparing soundings from 12z 72hr and 6z 78hr. ASH looks OK this run though unless something sneaks in between the 6hrlies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like the mid-levels get a bit warmer down here and south of the Pike. That high is in a perfect position to keep mostly everyone below freezing at the surface for the whole event though. (546 line gets farther north..especially in Western Mass at 78 hours) I think part of it might be a function of lift too. You get a little more lift, and go from IP to SN. Talk about walking the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The ML warming just runs into a brick wall. ya, looks colder at 850 for sure relative to 06z i also typically look at the 1000-500 mb thickness which seems a tad warm, what's the significance of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOL, it's so freaking close on the soundings. I mean a few tenths of a degree or a few microbars of lift, could mean S+ or IP. 12/16/07 forecast nightmare for someone in a narrow corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like the mid-levels get a bit warmer down here and south of the Pike. That high is in a perfect position to keep mostly everyone below freezing at the surface for the whole event though. (546 line gets farther north..especially in Western Mass at 78 hours) Still absurdly close south of the Pike. idk I still sort of envision south zones transitioning to rain, and some flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 QPF-fetishists south of 45N rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wednesday is my birthday so im hoping for a good present out of this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like kevbo goes to fzra almost certain gfs verbatim. 550 thckns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12/16/07 forecast nightmare for someone in a narrow corridor. Yeah it will go the opposite direction of whatever you forecast just to screw you over lol. If you think it might hang onto to snow longer, you end up ripping pellets sooner...if you think you might get peppered with BBs, then you rip 1/4 +SN for 4 hours longer than you thought destroying the snowfall forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wow.. is close on this run. mostly snow it seems.. but so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12/16/07 forecast nightmare for someone in a narrow corridor. What was the date of the ice storm that trending a bit colder than forecast and brought ice storm warnings down into C RI and NW RI ended up with .5"+ of zr? Was that '07? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still absurdly close south of the Pike. idk I still sort of envision south zones transitioning to rain, and some flooding problems. I don't think I go over to rain...at least with that high position. It probably gets to about Providence at 78 hours then sinks back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wednesday is my birthday so im hoping for a good present out of this! Didn't work out well for me last week (2.1") but it looks like a better money shot for you. And happy birthday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 qpf looks similar or maybe a lttle less then the Nam: .2 or so from round 1 and .9 from round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think I go over to rain...at least with that high position. It probably gets to about Providence at 78 hours then sinks back south. That's what I meant, yeah. NW RI would tinker with freezing. The Pawtuxet can enjoy a minor flood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think I go over to rain...at least with that high position. It probably gets to about Providence at 78 hours then sinks back south. Most certainly you wouldn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think I go over to rain...at least with that high position. It probably gets to about Providence at 78 hours then sinks back south. Its going to be just about impossible for anyone not along the immediate shore line to go to rain in this over SNE...when the GFS only brings the sfc frz line to PVD, you know its cold air mass. That model is awful with CAD and even its cruddy resolution is seeing it on this setup. The only way anyone outside of the south coast or Cape goes to rain is if this low rips up into central NY and the triple point low is late to the party...but given this airmass with that high position and the deep snow pack all the way to the ocean, I don't see it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.