CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Cool...about 22" here. lol Yeah it's lovin' you guys. In some ways, I don't think it's all that crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As Kev says Colder is the way to go. BOX seems to agree. THE FIRST STAGE PCPN WINDS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHANGE FROM TUESDAY IS THAT ABOVE FREEZING AIR INTRUDES AROUND 800-850 MB. THIS SETS UP A THERMAL STRUCTURE THAT SNOW TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE TRACK...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRY TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR AT LEAST ALONG THE LANDWARD SIDE OF THE SOUTH COAST. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION THAT WOULD MEAN A CHANGE TO RAIN FARTHER NORTH. THE 00Z EURO JOINS THE NAM AND GGEM IN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COAST. THIS COLDER TRACK SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE LAND AND THE SNOWPACK ACTING AS A REFRIGERANT. What BOX is saying is a lot of sleet below the pike with snow on the front/back ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 8-14 is too low a call for Petes latitude right now? I wouldn't go too gung ho yet...it might end up being a 12-18 storm but it could easily trend into a 4-8" deal with a ton of IP/ZR Kevin touched me inappropriately last night. Maybe that's where that came from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 8-14 is too low a call for Petes latitude right now? I wouldn't go too gung ho yet...it might end up being a 12-18 storm but it could easily trend into a 4-8" deal with a ton of IP/ZR Best forecaster on this board says 12-24 with lollies to 30 though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Now that I'm a professional forecaster I find it more prudent to start low and bump up as needed. I think 12" is a high percentage play. Of course, I hope to bump up to 24-36" with 48" lollies but not quite ready to pull the trigger. Stay tuned. You can't bump up. You said "final call". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Easier to increse then decrease totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Kevin touched me inappropriately last night. Maybe that's where that came from. Oh nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Easier to increse then decrease totals It's not easier, it's just that decreasing is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As Kev says Colder is the way to go. BOX seems to agree. THE FIRST STAGE PCPN WINDS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHANGE FROM TUESDAY IS THAT ABOVE FREEZING AIR INTRUDES AROUND 800-850 MB. THIS SETS UP A THERMAL STRUCTURE THAT SNOW TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE TRACK...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRY TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR AT LEAST ALONG THE LANDWARD SIDE OF THE SOUTH COAST. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION THAT WOULD MEAN A CHANGE TO RAIN FARTHER NORTH. THE 00Z EURO JOINS THE NAM AND GGEM IN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COAST. THIS COLDER TRACK SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE LAND AND THE SNOWPACK ACTING AS A REFRIGERANT. Take that, Dendrite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 just looked out my back window and noticed the aluminum panels that cover my back porch are coming down a little bit snow removal time!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 When Pit and I agree you're too low, then my friend YOU ARE TOO LOW! Well, I hope you are both right. I'm just not convinced we don't see a period of pl that could hold down totals. I do think that the cold will win out but from this range a slam dunk isn't there yet. By this time tomorrow I would think the tea leaves will have fallen in place. 8-14" for now, that's what I'm going to put out to all my clients here in the Highlands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's not easier, it's just that decreasing is depressing. Decreasing is a phail....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Weenie radar says still heavy for Maine, light and occasional mod for much of the rest of the area probably nothing substantial though. That probably puts our friend Erik (MaineJayhawk) at over 1.5! Maybe a jackpot? Dryslot what is your name? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That probably puts our friend Erik (MaineJayhawk) at over 1.5! Maybe a jackpot? Dryslot what is your name? Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That probably puts our friend Erik (MaineJayhawk) at over 1.5! Maybe a jackpot? Dryslot what is your name? Finally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 good name! Jeff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 8-14 is too low a call for Petes latitude right now? I wouldn't go too gung ho yet...it might end up being a 12-18 storm but it could easily trend into a 4-8" deal with a ton of IP/ZR This is the difference between weenies and pros like you and me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Cool...about 22" here. lol Morning Brian.... would really be something if this storm exceeded Jan 12. I assumed that was going to be our biggest this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 good name! lol, I'm guessing your as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Heavy heavy gradient. lol 10" for me, take a few "steps" north and theres 16". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is the difference between weenies and pros like you and me. Out for a drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Kevin touched me inappropriately last night. Maybe that's where that came from. He's a weenie magnet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nice damming signature on the E side of the Appalachians on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Henry love you long time Kevin http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/45127/first-look-at-the-groundhog-day-blizzard.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Henry love you long time Kevin http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/meteomadness/story/45127/first-look-at-the-groundhog-day-blizzard.asp He is such a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Models are rolling back the QPF for the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 He is such a Blizzard.lol What hypsters over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Models are rolling back the QPF for the first storm. MPM, is that you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Henry love you long time Kevin http://www.accuweath...ay-blizzard.asp I'd be surprised if you and I get winds sustained over 20kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Henry love you long time Kevin http://www.accuweath...ay-blizzard.asp LOL... a 12-24" "blizzard" for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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