Mica Vim Toot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.nco.ncep....am_p60_084l.gif In the final analysis, the 12z NAM is very egalitarian - it gives more QPF to those it pings. Except for Vim Toot, of course............. A terrible fate is mine. Notorious for no snow in this, the year of the White Onslaught. Boo hoo. Vim Toot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 you guys look fine its gonna be a real mess though....trouble brewing structual failure FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The NAM did not come in warmer really...at least for CT...the primary cuts so far west that it slows down the 850mb WAA. On these graphics it has. But I'll defer to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 zr is a bit of a different animal. You originally said all snow. I do however think you will ping for more than an hour though. So are we at an impasse? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks for that link Bob. LCI CON ASH all below zero at every level. ORH goes above 0 at 800 briefly, as does Bos. So looks like the sleet line sets up somewhere in Northern Mass on the 12Z Nam. QPF is +1 for all those stations, from 1.17 for CON to 1.44 to BOS. PWM never even flirts with 0 and has 1.2ish qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rivers Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Southern connecticut could end up with a major icestorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So are we at an impasse? I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 On these graphics it has. But I'll defer to you. At this point the minor differences between 06z and 12z are well within the margin for error of the actual forecast at this period so its probably not worth straining over still 3 days out (for main event anyway). It could easily be 50 miles in either direction 24h from now rendering a debate over 10 miles useless. Not that its bad to analyze the model since we like to do that, but we should all remember that its just guidance...especially when 3 days out. If the last system didn't teach us enough.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks for that link Bob. LCI CON ASH all below zero at every level. ORH goes above 0 at 800 briefly, as does Bos. So looks like the sleet line sets up somewhere in Northern Mass on the 12Z Nam. QPF is +1 for all those stations, from 1.17 for CON to 1.44 to BOS. PWM never even flirts with 0 and has 1.2ish qpf Excellent. I think a first call can be given tonight or tomorrow, though I've already got one in my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 is there more precip after 84? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So are we at an impasse? You must be a pretty good sales guy - used to work as a sales engineer and enjoyed hearing the different negotiating styles. It sounds to me like kev expects to ping for 1-2 hours. This forecast seems to have very high bust potential given the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 is there more precip after 84? Yes, though it is on its way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 is there more precip after 84? Weenie radar says still heavy for Maine, light and occasional mod for much of the rest of the area probably nothing substantial though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 is there more precip after 84? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Final call for the East Slope of the Berks. 8-14". No need to fret about the minor points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Heavy heavy gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Final call for the East Slope of the Berks. 8-14". No need to fret about the minor points. That is exactly what I had in my head for me right now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, though it is on its way out. Probably some additional inches though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That is exactly what I had in my head for me right now lol. lol, I have the same, Right around there maybe a couple more depending what the 1st wave does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Final call for the East Slope of the Berks. 8-14". No need to fret about the minor points. Too low, imo. And I'm a conservative mofo. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Final call for the East Slope of the Berks. 8-14". No need to fret about the minor points. Believe it or not, Pete, I'm going to say your "floor" is too low. I'd go 10-15" between the two. Duration will keep it from going higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Heavy heavy gradient. Cool...about 22" here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 For whoever is all snow..this is 12-24 with lollis to 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Cool...about 22" here. lol I get screwed with 17''. Good way to be screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Probably some additional inches though. I was guessing maybe another .25" QPF, so yeah. Nothing inconsequential. Heavy heavy snow. I like Scott's accum map. 20" or so. That'd be something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As Kev says Colder is the way to go. BOX seems to agree. THE FIRST STAGE PCPN WINDS DOWN AND MOVES OFFSHORE BY MIDNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MOVING OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND REDEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTH NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE CHANGE FROM TUESDAY IS THAT ABOVE FREEZING AIR INTRUDES AROUND 800-850 MB. THIS SETS UP A THERMAL STRUCTURE THAT SNOW TO SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN. QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO THE TRACK...THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN TRY TO MOVE THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OR AT LEAST ALONG THE LANDWARD SIDE OF THE SOUTH COAST. THIS IS A WARMER SOLUTION THAT WOULD MEAN A CHANGE TO RAIN FARTHER NORTH. THE 00Z EURO JOINS THE NAM AND GGEM IN REMAINING SOUTH OF THE COAST. THIS COLDER TRACK SOLUTION MAKES MORE SENSE CLIMATOLOGICALLY WITH THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE OVER THE LAND AND THE SNOWPACK ACTING AS A REFRIGERANT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Heavy heavy gradient. I'll take that 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Believe it or not, Pete, I'm going to say your "floor" is too low. I'd go 10-15" between the two. Duration will keep it from going higher. When Pit and I agree you're too low, then my friend YOU ARE TOO LOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Believe it or not, Pete, I'm going to say your "floor" is too low. I'd go 10-15" between the two. Duration will keep it from going higher. Now that I'm a professional forecaster I find it more prudent to start low and bump up as needed. I think 12" is a high percentage play. Of course, I hope to bump up to 24-36" with 48" lollies but not quite ready to pull the trigger. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 When Pit and I agree you're too low, then my friend YOU ARE TOO LOW! 8-14 is too low a call for Petes latitude right now? I wouldn't go too gung ho yet...it might end up being a 12-18 storm but it could easily trend into a 4-8" deal with a ton of IP/ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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