CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 On the 06z GFS, you can see how the PV shifted a little east and tries to keep heights lower in Maine. Looks like a little south of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 A neat system with so many questions. I think it may provide me a good lesson will of the impact of temps at different layers in what actually plays out. Maybe the weenie in me, but I'm feeling pretty confident on seeing this a mostly snow (and a lot of it) in mby. A very good AFD out of ALY this morning. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD... OUR POTENT SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT WAVE WAS COMING ASHORE ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. DOWNSTREAM IMPACTS ARE INCREASING MOISTURE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH PACIFIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO PER THE H2O VAPOR LOOP ANALYSIS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL BE ATTEMPTING TO DIVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. ALL OF THESE FEATURES SPELL AN INCREASE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENESIS FIELDS. THE FIRST PIECE OF THIS STORM...IN THE FORM OF STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION...ARRIVES ON TUESDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED ENCASE THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERMAL PROFILES...WHILE THEY DO WARM...REMAIN BELOW 0C TO REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MIX. THE GARCIA TECHNIQUE WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 2-3 G/KG ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON THE THETA SURFACE...SUGGEST A 4-6 INCH SNOWFALL BY SUNSET TUESDAY. SURE SOME MESOSCALE IMPACTS SUCH AS UPSLOPE CONDITIONS FOR THE CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN GREENS AND THE BERKS MAY BE SLIGHT HIGHER WITH A BIT LOWER VALUES ACROSS THE DACKS /AS LEAST PER WHERE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EVENTUALLY SETS UP/. THIS WOULD LEAD TOWARD AT LEAST AN ADVISORY FOR MOST OF THE REGION. A QUICK RESPITE OCCURS TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SHOW ARRIVES OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE CALIFORNIA WAVE WILL SPAWN A NEW SURFACE LOW LEE OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AS ARCTIC AIR SPILLS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. DOWNSTREAM...IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT COMMENCES OVER THE EASTERN 2/3RDS OF THE CONUS WITH PRECIP QUICKLY RETURNING BACK TO THE CWA. MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE AND ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A WIDE DEGREE TO WHERE THIS SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK. THIS WILL HAVE HUGE IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO FORECASTING THE THERMAL PROFILES AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP TYPES. GEFS PLUME MEMBERS FOR ALBANY NY ALL AGREE THIS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT...WITH SEVERAL PTYPE MEMBERS SHOWING RAIN MAKING IT THIS FAR NORTH. THE ENSEMBLE MEAN OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE I80 CORRIDOR WHICH PLACES A WINTRY MIXTURE JUST SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. UTILIZING PARTIAL THICKNESS TECHNIQUE FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF...WE WILL PLACE THE WINTRY MIXTURE OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF I90. THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT ICE EVENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. FURTHER NORTH...MAINLY HEAVY SNOW WITH A HIGHER WATER CONTENT. QPF FROM THE VARIOUS SOURCES AND HPC ALL SUGGEST BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AND STRONGLY WORD THIS WINTER EVENT WITHIN THE HWO. AS CONFIDENCE LEVELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE...EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR HEADLINES TO APPEAR SOON...STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not bad for three days out..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not bad for three days out..... Wow, even includes my old stomping grounds in Kansas. 12" is a big deal out there. But enough about the Plains. Heavy heavy snow throughout New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well AWT colder is winning. This is going to be an all snow event for everyone north of NYC. Once again the GFS just be used as toilet paper and flushed down the toilet Feet and feet of snow for all.. Yes Eric...even you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not bad for three days out..... i think finally N. SNE starts to accumulate more than S SNE. i see the LP getting squashed just sw of pittsburgh and then a weenie low going across Long island out over Chatham. who knows how far N the pingers go? heavy heavy qpf 1.5 inches or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well AWT colder is winning. This is going to be an all snow event for everyone north of NYC. Once again the GFS just be used as toilet paper and flushed down the toilet Feet and feet of snow for all.. Yes Eric...even you GFS isn't bad. The ensembles are warm, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Don't forget about D6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS isn't bad. The ensembles are warm, however. at three days out...isn't this contradictory. i think kev would agree it's safe to toss the gfs AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Icing concerns for SNE peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS isn't bad. The ensembles are warm, however. Yeah but we're seeing the Euro go colder..now the NAM is catching on..The Ukie was colder..Euro ens are cold..frigid airmass north of us..all signs point cold and snowy..I'm honestly not worried about sleet at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 at three days out...isn't this contradictory. i think kev would agree it's safe to toss the gfs AWT. Huh?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah but we're seeing the Euro go colder..now the NAM is catching on..The Ukie was colder..Euro ens are cold..frigid airmass north of us..all signs point cold and snowy..I'm honestly not worried about sleet at all. The only real bad run that didn't make sense was the 18z run yesterday. Other than that, it falls into the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah but we're seeing the Euro go colder..now the NAM is catching on..The Ukie was colder..Euro ens are cold..frigid airmass north of us..all signs point cold and snowy..I'm honestly not worried about sleet at all. it might be the ZR that is the show stopper according to that HPC graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The only real bad run that didn't make sense was the 18z run yesterday. Other than that, it falls into the realm of possibilities. Yeah we crapped all over the 18z GFS yesterday at the GTG..Garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Scooter what did the Euro give for round 1 qpf on Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If you read the BOX zfp, you can get a nice appreciation of the anticipated p-type configurations as you works north to south. The good news per those is that everyone stays frozen. Far northern zones (Franklin County northward into SNH)--mostly snow, some sleet Between route 2 and the mass pike, mostly snow, a little more sleet than above Between the pike and the MA/CT line, less snow, a lot of sleet and zr Below the Mass/CT border, snow, some sleet but a lot of zr I think kevin and Steve should make sure they have lot of dry firewood and gas/diesel for their generators. One thing I would expect is that the ratios on this will be pretty ho-hum. So lots of qpf, but I would expect a standard/sub-standard ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 More snow here would be just an awesome sight. I am currently hauling snow off 84 in Vernon and can not believe the size of the snowbanks even in relation to NW HFD county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Roger Smith on board lol So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity). Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3. Another area to watch for very heavy snow would be Hamilton-Niagara in southern Ontario as intense cold in strong northeast flow generates heavy lake enhancement of what would otherwise be 3-5 inches towards 15-25 inches At an earlier stage Chicago to Milwaukee could be seeing considerable lake enhancement also, with bitterly cold air mass in place, could increase roughly similar scale to above.. Same effect less potent in northwest OH (due to frozen surfaces of Lake Erie) but this may merely blend into the synoptic scale which will be heavier to south anyway. Saginaw Bay could see the northeast wind lake enhancement spreading into s/c MI for an extra 3-5 inches there. Parts of western NY could pick up some of this lake enhancement too, as winds turn more northerly. Synoptic scale snowfall likely to be about 8-12 inches in SYR-ALB trending down to 3-5 in northern NY. Should also mention PIT with the potential to see 18-24 inches of snow on the current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Scooter what did the Euro give for round 1 qpf on Tuesday? Maybe 0.4 to 0.5" or so?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If you read the BOX zfp, you can get a nice appreciation of the anticipated p-type configurations as you works north to south. The good news per those is that everyone stays frozen. Far northern zones (Franklin County northward into SNH)--mostly snow, some sleet Between route 2 and the mass pike, mostly snow, a little more sleet than above Between the pike and the MA/CT line, less snow, a lot of sleet and zr Below the Mass/CT border, snow, some sleet but a lot of zr I think kevin and Steve should make sure they have lot of dry firewood and gas/diesel for their generators. One thing I would expect is that the ratios on this will be pretty ho-hum. So lots of qpf, but I would expect a standard/sub-standard ratio. Again, there's very little worry of an icing event anywhere in SNE..this is mostly all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Maybe 0.4 to 0.5" or so?? So a 3-6 or 4-8 event before the big dog..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Don't forget the euro still taints most of sne with IP, esp south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Don't forget the euro still taints most of sne with IP, esp south of the Pike. We'll see that push south at 12z and certainly by 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Again, there's very little worry of an icing event anywhere in SNE..this is mostly all snow Your confidence--though unfounded--is commendable. I think there's varying degrees of wintry ncp in store for all with a lot for many. EDIT: I agree with your statement re: icing. I'm not that concerned about that. But I think there will be mucho pinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We'll see that push south at 12z and certainly by 00z I feel pretty good where I'm at overall. It's very possible it does trend colder. I think what we want to look for, is the PV to try and sit closer to nrn Maine. This way, is deflects the incoming s/w to the south of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I like where I sit for this right now. Right now it looks like all snow to me and inside the best band. I'm feeling if anything this gets crunched a little more south with time , but quite a bit of margin so no northern fringe problems I dont think. Such a trend could save Kevin from an ice storm. Don't forget the euro still taints most of sne with IP, esp south of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00Z MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR WINTER EVENT FOR LATER IN THE PD AFFECTING A LARGE AREA OF THE PLAINS TO NORTHEAST. SRN STREAM SHRTWV WILL MOVE OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES ON TUES AND ASSUME A NEG TILT AS IT LIFTS OUT THRU THE SRN PLAINS... WHILE THE NRN STREAM TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE GT BASIN. THIS WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN A SFC LOW MOVING FROM THE SRN PLAINS EARLY TUE TO SRN NEW ENG BY MIDDAY WED. A STRONG LOW LVL JET DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN GOMEX INTO THE LWR MS VLY WILL CARRY A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE INTO THE SYSTEM AND THROW THE MSTR BACK ACROSS THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. TO SRN NEW ENG. STRONG DEFORMATION AND AN UPR JET COUPLET COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER FGEN FORCING WILL PROVIDE AMPLE LIFT WHILE ENERGETIC SWLY-WLY FLOW CARRIES MSTR THRU THE OH VLY INTO THE NORTHEAST/NRN MID ATLC... WITH AN AXIS OF OVERRUNNING. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF VERY SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMS FROM NORTHEAST OK TO SRN NEW ENG... AND VERY HVY SNOW FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS/MID LS VLY ACROSS TO NEW ENG. 00Z MODELS CAME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE SCOPE OF THIS EVENT INDICATING UP TO AN INCH OF FZRA CENTERED FROM SE IA TO W-CNTRL OH... AND WELL OVER A FOOT OF SNOW NORTH OF THIS AXIS. MANUAL GRAPHICS EMPLOYED AN INCLUSIVE BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF TO CAPTURE HIGHER OP MODEL OUTPUT ALTHO THE OFFICIALLY PREFERRED 00Z GEFS... WHICH WAS SEEN AFTER THE GRAPHICS WERE CREATED... SUPPORTED THIS HEAVIER APPROACH. FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONSIDERING THIS IS 3 DAYS OUT... BUT IMPORTANT PLACEMENT ISSUES REMAIN... SO THIS ONE WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF MAJOR IMPACTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I feel pretty good where I'm at overall. It's very possible it does trend colder. I think what we want to look for, is the PV to try and sit closer to nrn Maine. This way, is deflects the incoming s/w to the south of sne. I think I'm gonna have to break down and shovel my deck today. There's almost 3 feet of snow on it..and I've loved seeing it pile high to the point where I can't get out the sliding glass doors, but any more added weight and I think it could come down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think I'm gonna have to break down and shovel my deck today. There's almost 3 feet of snow on it..and I've loved seeing it pile high to the point where I can't get out the sliding glass doors, but any more added weight and I think it could come down My folks just did that. Probably a good idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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