dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The NAM should be a big hit. 850s look similar to the EC. It tries to close H5 off for 12-15hrs. Dry slot racing into upstate NY...hopefully that gets shunted SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 06z NAM is noticeably colder in the mid-levels down here. Compared to the 84h oz, the 78h 6z is less negatively tilted and the HP immediately N of NE is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, NAM MUCH colder! Looks like snow at the height IMBY just based off 850's..could be a warm layer there somewhere though. Good trend, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow, NAM MUCH colder! Looks like snow at the height IMBY just based off 850's..could be a warm layer there somewhere though. Good trend, The secondary pops S of LI before the 546 line ever gets to Rte 84, let alone the Pike. However, it IS 84h on the 06z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The secondary pops S of LI before the 546 line ever gets to Rte 84, let alone the Pike. However, it IS 84h on the 06z NAM Lol, I thought the same exact thing...wait, it's just the NAM...dammit. Maybe more snow here would be bad seeing as my roof is leaking right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The secondary pops S of LI before the 546 line ever gets to Rte 84, let alone the Pike. However, it IS 84h on the 06z NAM Its actually supported pretty well by the ECMWF ensemble mean....but given all the model troubles recently, tough to take much verbatim yet as easy as it is to get hung up on every model run. I'm basically looking at a lot of those 1994 events and a few others from other years and there is definitely a recurring them in several of those...the high to north actually fights back quite a bit and hold the sleet line stationary or even pushes it back south after its initial surge north. Gonna be an interesting forecast regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The secondary pops S of LI before the 546 line ever gets to Rte 84, let alone the Pike. However, it IS 84h on the 06z NAM The typical 06Z NAM bias is suppressed, dry, and cold so I wouldn't buy it yet, but its a positive sign at least for 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Its actually supported pretty well by the ECMWF ensemble mean....but given all the model troubles recently, tough to take much verbatim yet as easy as it is to get hung up on every model run. I'm basically looking at a lot of those 1994 events and a few others from other years and there is definitely a recurring them in several of those...the high to north actually fights back quite a bit and hold the sleet line stationary or even pushes it back south after its initial surge north. Gonna be an interesting forecast regardless. I mentioned how both the 2/8 and 2/11 1994 events were rain on the models 3-4 days out...the 2/8 event which can sort of be compared to the overrunning snows at 48-66 hours was also very underforecast....I would expect again that there will big overachivements with that round of snow and that someone will see double digits...probably south of where the NAM currently has it but I do think everyone from TTN to ORH will do relatively well with that 48-66 hour round of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Its actually supported pretty well by the ECMWF ensemble mean....but given all the model troubles recently, tough to take much verbatim yet as easy as it is to get hung up on every model run. I'm basically looking at a lot of those 1994 events and a few others from other years and there is definitely a recurring them in several of those...the high to north actually fights back quite a bit and hold the sleet line stationary or even pushes it back south after its initial surge north. Gonna be an interesting forecast regardless. Just looking at the point of closest approach of the 546 line (I think, maybe its the 0C line at 850 on EWALL) the NAM matches the 0z CMC and UK and is much further S than the 0z GFS. Interesting note on the HP........would that tendency to fight back be enhanced by the very cold temps and deep snowcover that we have? It would seem to make sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I mentioned how both the 2/8 and 2/11 1994 events were rain on the models 3-4 days out...the 2/8 event which can sort of be compared to the overrunning snows at 48-66 hours was also very underforecast....I would expect again that there will big overachivements with that round of snow and that someone will see double digits...probably south of where the NAM currently has it but I do think everyone from TTN to ORH will do relatively well with that 48-66 hour round of snow. Another event I was looking at that looks eerily similar at 5h. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/us0102.php But each setup will have its own quirks. I think the airmass is a bit colder in this one than the '96 event but the initial s/w also gets further north so its two conflicting forces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Another event I was looking at that looks eerily similar at 5h. http://www.meteo.psu...1996/us0102.php But each setup will have its own quirks. I think the airmass is a bit colder in this one than the '96 event but the initial s/w also gets further north so its two conflicting forces. I keep seeing that storm pop up as an analog..was that a mainly snow event for SNE or did CT/south of the Pike flip to IP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Congrats MA northward on the 06z NAM (and extreme NW CT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Lol, I thought the same exact thing...wait, it's just the NAM...dammit. Maybe more snow here would be bad seeing as my roof is leaking right now. Had my roof redone 2 years ago (it was ridiculously expensive). It would be a shame to make it collapse now......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Had my roof redone 2 years ago (it was ridiculously expensive). It would be a shame to make it collapse now......... So I've heard..I am glad I won't be the one paying for it to be re-done if need be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Congrats MA northward on the 06z NAM (and extreme NW CT) The clown map has me at 14" (and ORH at 18????) ......before the opening of the second act! 06z NAM, 06z NAM............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like we can lock in the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So I've heard..I am glad I won't be the one paying for it to be re-done if need be. Rich uncle? Insurance? If the latter, the company will prob try to deny coverage by pointing to your time spent here, saying you brought it on yourself, and it's not an Act of God....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The clown map has me at 14" (and ORH at 18????) ......before the opening of the second act! 06z NAM, 06z NAM............ No, a good amount of precip from round two is already added in I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks like we can lock in the 06z NAM. Not too much margin for error. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Rich uncle? Insurance? If the latter, the company will prob try to deny coverage by pointing to your time spent here, saying you brought it on yourself, and it's not an Act of God....... lol..no rich uncle..I'm 19 and a poor college student so either mom/dad or a combo pays. I hope insurance helps us out... crossed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I keep seeing that storm pop up as an analog..was that a mainly snow event for SNE or did CT/south of the Pike flip to IP? Yeah it sleeted up to the pike I think but there was still pretty good snow in CT. I remember narrowly avoiding sleet here but being worried about it because Windsor Locks was reporting it on the weather channel obs back then. But I think BDL still had like 10" out of that storm. But like said, just because that storm dumped a certain amount, it won't mean this one does the same. In a lot of these overrunning events, a matter of 10-15 miles can make a big difference. I'll use the 06z NAM as a good example of how 10-15 miles can make a huge difference....look at how tightly packed those isotherms are...and they 3C increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The euro wasn't too bad at all, actually a hair cooler at 850. I could see it cooling off even a bit more with a low track similar to what the 00z op had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 No, a good amount of precip from round two is already added in I believe. But they haven't found the second body yet.......still a lot to come Going to get some sleep.........let's see if the chorus sounds the same at 12z (to beat the metaphor into the ground) Night, all...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The euro wasn't too bad at all, actually a hair cooler at 850. I could see it cooling off even a bit more with a low track similar to what the 00z op had. The source region in Maine is brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah it sleeted up to the pike I think but there was still pretty good snow in CT. I remember narrowly avoiding sleet here but being worried about it because Windsor Locks was reporting it on the weather channel obs back then. But I think BDL still had like 10" out of that storm. But like said, just because that storm dumped a certain amount, it won't mean this one does the same. In a lot of these overrunning events, a matter of 10-15 miles can make a big difference. I'll use the 06z NAM as a good example of how 10-15 miles can make a huge difference....look at how tightly packed those isotherms are...and they 3C increments. Look at that 90 kt jet. Omega city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah it sleeted up to the pike I think but there was still pretty good snow in CT. I remember narrowly avoiding sleet here but being worried about it because Windsor Locks was reporting it on the weather channel obs back then. But I think BDL still had like 10" out of that storm. But like said, just because that storm dumped a certain amount, it won't mean this one does the same. In a lot of these overrunning events, a matter of 10-15 miles can make a big difference. I'll use the 06z NAM as a good example of how 10-15 miles can make a huge difference....look at how tightly packed those isotherms are...and they 3C increments. Thanks for the info Will. Wow, I'm surprised you get worried when BDL is reporting sleet. I would think you are still pretty safe but maybe not based on this temp height map you're showing me. Geeze, those are very close together..it's going to be interesting to watch this play out as you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Lovely discussion out of BTV this evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Will or Scott, thinking that things are looking good here for the mid-week system. Is this true?lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Will or Scott, thinking that things are looking good here for the mid-week system. Is this true?lol Almost pure latitude system. So if BOS or ORH rips pellets, you probably are too. If they are looking good for heavy snow, you are too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost pure latitude system. So if BOS or ORH rips pellets, you probably are too. If they are looking good for heavy snow, you are too. Thanks, I'm liking my chances of adding a significant amount of snow to the pack. I could see the East slope receiving low end warning level snow Tues before the main show even starts. I think the trend for the cold to overperform will show itself. As much as I hate to say it, the call JB made the other day with the heavy snow band centered on the Springfields looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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