simpsonsbuff Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Total precip for both storms on the GGEM... The raleigh link: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Let me just add there is some good overrunning in CNE for storm 1 included in those totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 8-12" N of the pike.....AWT. Ray, does that include the front end tues snow? Or is the euro different in that regard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sweating, hoping for sleet straight up, I like my power in the on position. I like my shovel in the on position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GEM and EURO in very good agreement on getting the sleet line to mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ray, does that include the front end tues snow? Or is the euro different in that regard? I think that is seperate...I'm too tired to go try to add it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ginx - THANK You for that Link Yes. Great for the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GEM and EURO in very good agreement on getting the sleet line to mby. W'ere getting warning snows I think...even if there's sleet taint. But it wouldn't surprise me if we end up a bit colder in MLs even. The Euro is just frigid with that airmass. Those sfc temps and never bringing the 546 thickness line N of a BOS-BDL line is always a bit of a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 W'ere getting warning snows I think...even if there's sleet taint. But it wouldn't surprise me if we end up a bit colder in MLs even. The Euro is just frigid with that airmass. Those sfc temps and never bringing the 546 thickness line N of a BOS-BDL line is always a bit of a red flag. Agreed....gun-to-head, I'd hold with what I have said all along....sleet line initally flies to the n, but then meets a great deal of resistance around the Sturbridge area....washes out for a couple of hours, then crawls to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So in layman's terms, how much snow/ice/whatever can we expect in Boston? Now what happens in Southern CT? If anyone could answer those two things for me, I'd be delighted. Agreed....gun-to-head, I'd hold with what I have said all along....sleet line initally flies to the n, but then meets a great deal of resistance around the Sturbridge area....washes out for a couple of hours, then crawls to the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00z EC ens were a little north of 12z, but still a bit cooler than the Op. Nice hit north of the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Those that think the low will track inland are wrong will track south of sne with snow pack in sne and the northeast area . most all storms this month have been snow and this one will be the same . Models dont see the snow on the ground .This week storm will be over 8 inches for everyone inland sne area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks SREFs ping to about MA/NH border but the spread in the mid-level temps is laughable once out to 3+ days....I've almost never seen a spread like that. So the mean is likely pretty usless for something on a small scale of just a few 10s of miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looks SREFs ping to about MA/NH border but the spread in the mid-level temps is laughable once out to 3+ days....I've almost never seen a spread like that. So the mean is likely pretty usless for something on a small scale of just a few 10s of miles. The mean is warmer than 21z, but we've gained a lot more spread like you said. I'm too tired to decide how I feel about that.One thing is for sure...they're ridiculously juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The mean is warmer than 21z, but we've gained a lot more spread like you said. I'm too tired to decide how I feel about that. One thing is for sure...they're ridiculously juicy. About all I'm willing to lock in is that SNE/CNE is seeing a major winter storm...working out where and what ptype occurs is a tougher issues though further north is obviously hedged toward more snow. I think only the south coast and maybe up to near BOS (even they are very iffy) are the only spots that have any chance of seeing rain out of this. The SREF uncertainty shows up well in their snow probs as round 2 gets underway. For the 12 hours between 75-87 hours, it has like a 55% of >1 inch of snow here, a 45% of >4", and a 25% of >8"....lol. To have >25% of 8" and only 55% for 1"+ is kind of ridiculous. Not that those probs mean a whole lot at the end of the run as does the mean of the solution, but I thought it was funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The difference tween Ekster's afternoon AFD and the discussion this evening from GYX is amazing in length and detail.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 About all I'm willing to lock in is that SNE/CNE is seeing a major winter storm...working out where and what ptype occurs is a tougher issues though further north is obviously hedged toward more snow. I think only the south coast and maybe up to near BOS (even they are very iffy) are the only spots that have any chance of seeing rain out of this. The SREF uncertainty shows up well in their snow probs as round 2 gets underway. For the 12 hours between 75-87 hours, it has like a 55% of >1 inch of snow here, a 45% of >4", and a 25% of >8"....lol. To have >25% of 8" and only 55% for 1"+ is kind of ridiculous. Not that those probs mean a whole lot at the end of the run as does the mean of the solution, but I thought it was funny. Would you say a 6-12" snowfall is locked for most of the interior? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Some of those SREF solutions are ridiculous. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Would you say a 6-12" snowfall is locked for most of the interior? Probably at least for north of the pike when you account for the first wave. CNE right now has the best chances for the heavier snow totals. Though there could be some pretty heavy totals in SNE if the sleet line holds steady for awhile....someone just north of the sleet line will probably get hammered....as thats where some heavy qpf might be. But the sleet line could be anywhere between Mt. Tolland and CON at this point...models seem to want to slow it down near Rt 2 in MA, so I would think N of that is going to be pretty good. This airmass is so cold though its going to be hard to tell what happens on the models the next couple days. The main system is quite juiced up too....so there's opposing forces battling it out which should be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 But the sleet line could be anywhere between Mt. Tolland and CON at this point. 3 SREF members ping up to Berlin. There's your spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Some of those SREF solutions are ridiculous. lol RSM5 tracking the low through PLB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Probably at least for north of the pike when you account for the first wave. CNE right now has the best chances for the heavier snow totals. Though there could be some pretty heavy totals in SNE if the sleet line holds steady for awhile....someone just north of the sleet line will probably get hammered....as thats where some heavy qpf might be. But the sleet line could be anywhere between Mt. Tolland and CON at this point...models seem to want to slow it down near Rt 2 in MA, so I would think N of that is going to be pretty good. This airmass is so cold though its going to be hard to tell what happens on the models the next couple days. The main system is quite juiced up too....so there's opposing forces battling it out which should be interesting to watch. The results are going to be sick. I wonder if we hit a snow breaking point this year by Feb 15th, epic 5-6' snowpack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 RSM5 tracking the low through PLB BTW a little OT...I just noticed after I typed this that they changed plattsburgh to PBG...when did they do that? I was used to PLB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So can anyone tell me what they think will happen at HVN, BDL, and BOS? I'm really curious, and I don't have the skills to figure it out... and no good forecasts on TV till Mon. The results are going to be sick. I wonder if we hit a snow breaking point this year by Feb 15th, epic 5-6' snowpack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 BTW a little OT...I just noticed after I typed this that they changed plattsburgh to PBG...when did they do that? I was used to PLB Well PLB is still Clinton County Airport (right next door)... I'm guessing it has to do with the change to PBG being the full time passenger airport in 07? I don't know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So can anyone tell me what they think will happen at HVN, BDL, and BOS? I'm really curious, and I don't have the skills to figure it out... and no good forecasts on TV till Mon. HVN looks like maybe a light snow on Tuesday changing to sleet...then the main event on Wednesday is mostly sleet/freezing rain perhaps changing to plain liquid rain? Gonna be tough to see how long the low level cold air stays there, but it can drain down the valley pretty good at HVN. BDL looks like snow on Tuesday and then a whole lot of sleet on Wednesday....BOS same thing but maybe a bit more snow. Its impossible to give an exact forecast on this at this time range with so many precip types. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 BTW a little OT...I just noticed after I typed this that they changed plattsburgh to PBG...when did they do that? I was used to PLB I think sometime in 09 or 10 I believe. One day the automated ASOS obs stopped and were replaced by intermittent manned obs. Then soon after it was gone and the ASOS popped up at PBG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well PLB is still Clinton County Airport (right next door)... I'm guessing it has to do with the change to PBG being the full time passenger airport in 07? I don't know... Yeah I see it now, they moved the ASOS to the new airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 06z NAM is noticeably colder in the mid-levels down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 3 SREF members ping up to Berlin. There's your spread. Look at the 2m temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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