Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 31-February 2 MAJOR Winter Storm


Powerball

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 991
  • Created
  • Last Reply

and it looks at 96 on freemaps.com that it is a touch north in ohio compared to the GFS

prime spot for DTW to get clocked.

but i digress....the PV is in a slightly better postion for the eastern lakes with a touch less confluence.....still though PV burps and things could change a fair bit.....i never trust that thing (the PV).

Not really showing it now, but with the models trending towards deeper ul features, I wouldn't be surprised if the sfc low track ends being more NE than E/ENE through New England. Might be better at shoving the better snows northward towards you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The canadian model is off its rocker now with just a band of wintry precip along the front. Doesn't seem to be much hope left for me here in Omaha, Nebraska but looking at satellite the storm is still well off shore and two days away from landing on the coast so maybe a track further north happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Isn't that quote in the movie Men in Black 2? lol

and OKC is 1.01" liquid for whoever that asked lol

not sure, it's something that was dropped by someone in AP back at eastern.

Impressive to have b2b Euro runs now showing around 2" of QPF in the area as we approach 84hrs out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The canadian model is off its rocker now with just a band of wintry precip along the front. Doesn't seem to be much hope left for me here in Omaha, Nebraska but looking at satellite the storm is still well off shore and two days away from landing on the coast so maybe a track further north happens.

Canadian model is unsupported by its own ensembles. That's usually a red flag, especially since the operational Canadian model has a notable SE bias.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not really showing it now, but with the models trending towards deeper ul features, I wouldn't be surprised if the sfc low track ends being more NE than E/ENE through New England. Might be better at shoving the better snows northward towards you.

good point SSC, that is true trendwise as it seems the euro headed that way too.

im riding the ragged edge here lol.....i need all the help.

all i need is like a 20 or so mile shift......doesnt sound like much but i know climo this time of year though doesnt favor our area on the BZ runners... if anything, i expect it may shift back south but if the UL features trend stronger, that would be great.

but DTW-YYZ looks too get hammered :)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Meh, lost 0.02" off the 0z run. Nice consistency. DET lost about 0.38" IIRC but I doubt anyone in SE MI crew are complaining. :snowman:

Best totals are usually to the NW of the low so I would assume chicago des moines and that area gets close to 2 inches. Question for the folks who pay for the euro. Do you get snowfall maps similar to the NAM and GFS with the package? Or just qpf maps?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's not all that odd of a track. In fact, New England has had two storms this year alone that did something similar.... low pressure advanced northeast toward Long Island, stalled slightly, then moved due East.

The Euro track is odd imo. I don't get how after moving northeast fron NE TX to western IN it takes a hard right and moves east along I-70 into OH/PA?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Man, I have been thinking the same thing...I am glad I am not the only one.

One thing to keep in mind is that surface lows are not advected, they move to a dynamic, synergistic process involving upper level and low level forcing. Thus, they don't necessarily move in a straight line. I am not advocating for this specific model track, just giving some reasons why they will deviate in a manner shown by the ECMWF.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...