snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol, gotta do this 6 more times before Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 90hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, IN. Nice hit from MO/IA to DTW. 96hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP in C. Ohio. Nice hit from DVN to YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 90hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, IN. Nice hit from MO/IA to DTW. And... We can relax... Phew... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 based on the 72 hr height field, the euro should be a touch north of the GFS i imagine.....but you know these tricky models like to play games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Chicago gets over 1.75 qpf this run it looks like. EURO consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 90hrs: 996mb SLP near Terre Haute, IN. Nice hit from MO/IA to DTW. hot and yes phew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 so SPG to STL to INDY got left out of the qpf a lot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sorry I can't read through all the previous posts, has anyone posted this yet? MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 1219 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 THE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA... WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE TO GROWING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES...A SOLUTION WHICH IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND ITS RELATIVE POSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...ALTHOUGH WITH INITIALIZATION ISSUES OF ITS OWN BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS...PRODUCES A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES...AND THUS IS CONSIDERED REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE NEW UKMET HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST NOR AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LOW BY 84 HRS...AND GIVEN ITS MORE RECENT AND MORE ACCEPTABLE INITIALIZATION...PRODUCES THE MOST PREFERRED SOLUTION. ...UPPER LOW MOVING FROM N. CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: UKMET don't think I ever seen that one to end a forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 don't think I ever seen that one to end a forecast. i guess they liked the way it handled some of the initializations, too bad it sucks with storm development. whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 850 mb flirts with 0 but LAF gets demolished if it's all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 96hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP in C. Ohio. Nice hit from DVN to YYZ. 102hrs: Sub 1000mb SLP in C. PA. Nice hit from ORD to YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Go ahead and loosen the noose around Powerball's neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 LAF gets 2-2.5 QPF. Jesus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am guessing the euro has a major ice to snow for STL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Alot of left over energy and a low in the Sw at 96. All of the energy isnt coming out together? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 At 96, looks like the EURO closes off an H5 low similar to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 closing it off like the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Alot of left over energy and a low in the Sw at 96. All of the energy isnt coming out together? Yes, the models have been pretty consistent in that regard. But it really isn't hurting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Anyone have storm total QPF for LAW, OKC, TUL, JLN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes, the models have been pretty consistent in that regard. But it really isn't hurting us. Yea I would assume because of the GOM and crazy baroclinic zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Norman gets killed this run. 0.14" of what would likely be ice, then 1.01" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes, the models have been pretty consistent in that regard. But it really isn't hurting us. nope, as long as a decent piece comes out into that cranked up height field and tight baroclinic zone that should be all we need and the hi-res models are confirming that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I will go to Defcon 1 snow alert around here if this holds through tomorrow afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ORD sitting at 1.0" liquid through 6z weds so far with .70" of that coming in 6hr. all snow ofcourse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 and it looks at 96 on freemaps.com that it is a touch north in ohio compared to the GFS prime spot for DTW to get clocked. but i digress....the PV is in a slightly better postion for the eastern lakes with a touch less confluence.....still though PV burps and things could change a fair bit.....i never trust that thing (the PV). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'll have a list of cities/QPF here in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm not trying to be overly dramatic here...but imo, it's utterly incredible that the Euro is spitting out qpf's of 1.75" at ORD and 2.25" at LAF (and probably similar for STL), with a low that never gets deeper than 995 mb. Just think if the NAM verifies at 988-990 mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 closing it off like the 12z GFS The new hotness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ORD at 1.94" through 18z weds. another 74" in 6hr then .21" 6hr after that. almost 1..5" over 12hr.... easily would be over 1"/hr during that for a long duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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