Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 UKIE takes the low from ARKLATEX to just SE of EVV to n-central PA. Looks similar to the GFS. GEM can shove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So many variables. We are literally in the toss up area right now. Not for the faint of heart... yeah you guys are really riding the ragged edge! i guess you guys are used to that with these big storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A few more of the GFS ensemble members end up east of the Apps with the low beyond 72, but there's actually less of them doing that than with the 0z GEFS. Even the ones that do do not look as ragged as the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah you guys are really riding the ragged edge! i guess you guys are used to that with these big storms? The stakes are unusually high this time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah you guys are really riding the ragged edge! i guess you guys are used to that with these big storms? Typically, yes. Even in the Feb 2007 blizzzard (17" here), the mix/sleet line was about 30-60 miles to our south at times. Doesn't get any easier, but at least we somewhat know what to expect with these types of storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS is just under 1.0" liquid at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Toronto Blizzard, 12z GAPS are a hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Very impressive thermal gradient at 850mb on the 09z SREF as well. The freezing line knifes right through central Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Toronto Blizzard, 12z GAPS are a hit. Another model telling GEM to go bleep off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So many variables. We are literally in the toss up area right now. Not for the faint of heart... Something I'm wondering is if a stronger low could actually help us (as long as it doesn't go crazy west)...the gradient is so tight and it would perhaps strengthen the cold conveyor. All in all a tough situation with considerable uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Something I'm wondering is if a stronger low could actually help us (as long as it doesn't go crazy west)...the gradient is so tight and it would perhaps strengthen the cold conveyor. All in all a tough situation with considerable uncertainty. this is exactly what could happen. If the vort is strong enough coming out of the SW...it could cause an SLP to bomb out in N. LA and Head NNE to the Indy/Ohio border or maybe east of there. this would def allow colder air to filter south....would be the nam but a bit stronger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The low doesnt really seem to bomb or intensify that greatly so couldn't that yield a track more like the GGEM but not as bad? If the system really winds up I can see a track like last nights euro but it isn't really wound up, just has a lot of GOM moisture with it. Or maybe I am way off and should step being a worrying weenie, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Very impressive thermal gradient at 850mb on the 09z SREF as well. The freezing line knifes right through central Illinois. Ya its a very tight baroclinic zone for sure 6 degrees in southern IL to -14 in nw IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The doctor is coming!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 AT 84 HOUR NAM 1053mb HIGH versus a 992 mb low...wow if all other things were equal and the surrounding average pressure wasn't as high, and the high was "only 1043" we could of been looking at a 982 mb low also nice pre hit on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 AT 84 HOUR NAM 1053mb HIGH versus a 992 mb low...wow if all other things were equal and the surrounding average pressure wasn't as high, and the high was "only 1043" we could of been looking at a 982 mb low also nice pre hit on the NAM was wondering where you were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM deepens the surface low from 1003 mb to 992 mb between 72 and 84 hours...probably headed for the 980's after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM deepens the surface low from 1003 mb to 992 mb between 72 and 84 hours...probably headed for the 980's after that. I don't think that kind of deepening is an out to lunch idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 EURO has started. Out to hr 18. Let's see if it can show over 2 inch qpf for the chicago region again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM deepens the surface low from 1003 mb to 992 mb between 72 and 84 hours...probably headed for the 980's after that. That's very impressive considering the 1050mb+ high coming down the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 With a quick look, it looks like only 3 of the GGEM Ensembles want to play ball with the OP. The rest are NW, with most closer to the rest of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 EURO has started. Out to hr 18. Let's see if it can show over 2 inch qpf for the chicago region again. That'd be ok, but if we can avoid a GEM like fiasco, that'd be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't think that kind of deepening is an out to lunch idea. Me either...and you have to wonder if even that may be a little underdone. Models often aren't deep enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM deepens the surface low from 1003 mb to 992 mb between 72 and 84 hours...probably headed for the 980's after that. wouldn't surprise me at all. 18z run will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 With a quick look, it looks like only 3 of the GGEM Ensembles want to play ball with the OP. The rest are NW, with most closer to the rest of guidance. It sort of seems the op GEM was close to what the other models showed, it just split the pieces of energy up more. The overall baroclinic zone looks pretty similar to other models. Shows what a big difference there would be if the waves come out in pieces, as opposed to one large wave. Luckily the overall trend of the models the last few days is for one large wave to shoot out after the initial WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 With a quick look, it looks like only 3 of the GGEM Ensembles want to play ball with the OP. The rest are NW, with most closer to the rest of guidance. well thats a relief lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It sort of seems the op GEM was close to what the other models showed, it just split the pieces of energy up more. The overall baroclinic zone looks pretty similar to other models. Shows what a big difference there would be if the waves come out in pieces, as opposed to one large wave. Luckily the overall trend of the models the last few days is for one large wave to shoot out after the initial WAA snows. Which are becoming healthier with each run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Me either...and you have to wonder if even that may be a little underdone. Models often aren't deep enough. I can't help but flash back to the MSP blizzard, it was totally different but did have an impressive baroclinic zone and the NAM did very well picking up on agressive development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 With a quick look, it looks like only 3 of the GGEM Ensembles want to play ball with the OP. The rest are NW, with most closer to the rest of guidance. 3 other idiots on the idiot train eh? Well I'd prefer it be 0 but as we know nothing is automatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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