Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For real being this far out it can only get worse. Very nervous and skeptical. Whens the last time the models nailed a storm of this magnitude 3-4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We were due for one of the models to show a solution not in line with what has been consistent so far.... that's not a big surprise. I am not going to say that the shift in the GEM is a harbinger of what is to come, but it does remind me of how quickly things can change. As the energy starts to come on shore, could the GEM be responding to that? The WV loop shows the leading edge of the low crossing the N CA, S OR coast over the last hour. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/alwv.html (it looks like it's the current loop) Is it possible that the GEM at least, is responding to changes as things begin to sample better? I predict a couple of shfts in the storms track throughout the day today as the models adjust and then it's my guess that by tomorrow we will have an even better track depiction, which is bound to make some happy, and disappoint others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the christmas blizzard stevo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 As usual, you're a beacon of optimism. You are set man, seriously... we haven't seen any models runs go way absurd..the nam might be ice to snow...but it has trended colder and further SE, exp the backside. oh and there is this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thinking back on it, there were a fair number yesterday that were showing a coastal. Also a fair bit showing a further NW track than the 0z GGEM, so the mean kind of hid the disagreement. How does the 00z GEM ensemble mean look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 judging by the 12z GFS ens mean, the members will look like 0z with maybe a couple more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For real being this far out it can only get worse. Very nervous and skeptical. Whens the last time the models nailed a storm of this magnitude 3-4 days out. For real.. Come on man. I see what you are trying to do but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iastfan112 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is the data for the recon flight going to be available tonight at 00z or tomorrow's 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You are set man, seriously... we haven't seen any models runs go way absurd..the nam might be ice to snow...but it has trended colder and further SE, exp the backside. oh and there is this: Nice agreement with the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For real.. Come on man. I see what you are trying to do but... Meant as the totals shown on the gfs map can only go down. We maxed it out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GFS shows 12" for IND, while 23.8" for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You are set man, seriously... we haven't seen any models runs go way absurd..the nam might be ice to snow...but it has trended colder and further SE, exp the backside. oh and there is this: I'd love for you to be right, but seriously Friv, this is screaming ice/mix storm for LAF IMO. Time will tell though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nice agreement with the OP. excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How does the 00z GEM ensemble mean look like? I doubt they're out yet. They tend to be sycophantic to their OP run, so it wouldn't surprise me if they went south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If only it could hold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Very impressive swath of massive precip. So nice to see an open gulf meshing with a strong southwest flow storm again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Page 1 by yours truly. thanks! not quite the NAM, but deifntely not the GGEM either lol the critical moments occur in the next couple panels though for us north (which is where the GFS trended mightily).... so i guess its hard to say what the outcome would be, but it would be better than the GEM seemingly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'd love for you to be right, but seriously Friv, this is screaming ice/mix storm for LAF IMO. Time will tell though... Generic call right now would be several inches of snow with mixing. A tight gradient like this makes me a little nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC... ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION AND PRELIMINARY PREFERENCES ...UPPER TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: UKMET THE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA... WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH OF ITS ACTUAL CENTER. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE TO GROWING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES...A SOLUTION WHICH IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND ITS RELATIVE POSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE...THE NAM...ALTHOUGH WITH INITIALIZATION ISSUES OF ITS OWN BUT NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS...PRODUCES A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS INCLUDING ENSEMBLES...AND THUS IS CONSIDERED REASONABLE. OTHERWISE...THE NEW UKMET HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF BUT IS NOT AS FAR WEST NOR AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LOW BY 84 HRS...AND GIVEN ITS MORE RECENT AND MORE ACCEPTABLE INITIALIZATION...HAS THE EARLY LEAD REGARDING PREFERENCES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It may be a bit early...but would it be useful to see how each of the 12z models initialized current conditions? While that probably won't help with the exact final track, it may be useful to spot red flags when Model A has an eventual solution that is quite different from the relative consensus solutions of Models B, C, D, etc. EDIT: looks like Chicago Storm beat me to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 UKIE takes the low from ARKLATEX to just SE of EVV to n-central PA. Looks similar to the GFS. GEM can shove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 UKMET came NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 UKMET came NW... Not by much though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Generic call right now would be several inches of snow with mixing. A tight gradient like this makes me a little nervous. So many variables. We are literally in the toss up area right now. Not for the faint of heart... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The UKMET would drop a foot here...so I am ok with that. bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Per the above HPC assessment, looks like they're giving the early edge to the Ukie, FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Maybe P002 looks GEMish. Everything else is locked and loaded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 UKIE takes the low from ARKLATEX to just SE of EVV to n-central PA. Looks similar to the GFS. GEM can shove it. Yeah, about 991-992 mb (I think...it's a bit difficult to reconcile the colors lol) near EVV...if so, pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Has the nogaps come out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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