snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Honestly I think Indy could be ground zero for the ice.. Really has been trending that way lately.. I think there will be a tight gradient between a crippling ice/sleet storm with minor snows to 12-24 inches of snow. I just hope I end up in the middle. I'll take 12 inches with sleet and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well well.. We got the NAM gives us some ice to rain to thump snow We got GFS tons of ice to a bit of rain and little snow.. This time tomorrow night it shows this.. It will be time to get the batteries and candles fired up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Where the hell has Buckeye been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21z SREF. This doesn't include the WAA snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I cant believe most of Indiana is looking at 2-2.5 inches of QPF with only far southern Ind. actually getting plain rain. Most of us are going to get clocked in one form or the other. I forsee a few vacation days for me. Monday I'll stock up on beer and firewood. I think us on the north side of Indy, could be majority of sleet. But, downtown area/I-70 southward is where I think the real ice issues will be.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Where the hell has Buckeye been? He said he's at a bball tournament with his kid/s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Between the nam and gfs stl gets 15-18 inches of snow and upwards of a half inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I cant believe most of Indiana is looking at 2-2.5 inches of QPF with only far southern Ind. actually getting plain rain. Most of us are going to get clocked in one form or the other. I forsee a few vacation days for me. Monday I'll stock up on beer and firewood. Yes, stocking up on beer is very important. Stupid Sunday liquor laws. I haven't looked at the details yet, but suffice to say at face value, the 0z GFS could/would be the biggest snowstorm I've seen in my life. Not that I buy completely what's it selling, but still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yes, stocking up on beer is very important. Stupid Sunday liquor laws. I haven't looked at the details yet, but suffice to say at face value, the 0z GFS could/would be the biggest snowstorm I've seen in my life. Maybe I need to make the 30mile journey up to LAF.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Between the nam and gfs stl gets 15-18 inches of snow and upwards of a half inch of ice. No worries for you, wish I could say the same about my situation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sean Ash (WXYZ/ABC) up here in Detroit finally bit the hook and mention the models showing 10"+ amounts for us. Paul Gross (WDIV/NBC) hasn't yet, but he kept emphasizing this storm means business and the models have shifted northward with the track over the last 24 hours. You does mention the potential for a mix however if the models keep trending NW. Paul Gross says 1-2" and Sean Ash says 2-4" with the WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madmaxweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The GFS did trend back colder 18z but a tick warmer than 12z.... Small shifts will make monumental differences in what we get here. More west and north.. Rain More south and east..- Severe Ice storm.... I would like to see some snow out of this which the NAM shows but we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Am i correct in assuming that it would be better to compare to 12z vs 18z based on the stuff the models get at each run? Always seems that the 06z/18z runs are a bit different then 12/00z and my guess is that? Yeah if I think the off-hour run is junk for whatever reason--I will revert to only the 12Z, for instance. Really can go both ways though--sometimes the off-hour runs are better. In this case the changes were consistent run-by-run on the GFS so I was ok using the 18Z to compare with tonights 0Z run. In this amped situation--sometimes track changes at 72+ hours out need to be taken with a grain of salt since there will be significant non-linear development of the low and likely a NW curving track--so tiny changes become larger with time than a situation with more linear development. If the whole mean shifted then there may be something going on--but with this one run I am not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOT MS Paint map lolz... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=lot&storyid=63314&source=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Maybe I need to make the 30mile journey up to LAF.. You know the GFS won't be right, to a tee. We won't be all snow regardless, but it could be one hell of a pl/sn storm in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah if I think the off-hour run is junk for whatever reason--I will revert to only the 12Z, for instance. Really can go both ways though--sometimes the off-hour runs are better. In this case the changes were consistent by run-by-run on the GFS so I was ok using the 18Z to compare with tonights 0Z run. In this amped situation--sometimes track changes at 72+ hours out need to be taken with a grain of salt since there will be significant non-linear development of the low and likely a NW curving track--so tiny changes become larger with time than a situation with more linear development. If the whole mean shifted then there may be something going on--but with this one run I am not worried. Thanks. This is simply incredible to watch unfold especially for this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBerg Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Am i correct in assuming that it would be better to compare to 12z vs 18z based on the stuff the models get at each run? Always seems that the 06z/18z runs are a bit different then 12/00z and my guess is that? The 18Z and 06Z runs don't have all of the surface based upper air obs to initialize on, and uses the 12Z GFS 6hr forecast as a first guess. It does assimilate aircraft and sat data, sfc data, etc.. As a general rule, I don't pay much attention to the 18Z and 06Z runs, and when I do except the only thing I really pay attention to is perhaps the first 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ok, let's get the GGEM back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IWX WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOT MS Paint map lolz... http://www.crh.noaa....=63314&source=0 Can I donate a copy of Photoshop to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not that it matters but the 0z NOGAPS looks like the 12z GGEM. ENE moving low off the MA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IWX WRF... heaviest band looks like it was pass southeast of here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'll take my 18-20 inch plus snow up here in Michiana, but I am really getting concerned for major icing along the I-70 corridor from St. Louis to Indpls on northeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not that it matters but the 0z NOGAPS looks like the 12z GGEM. ENE moving low off the MA coast. Has the HPC or any AFD's ever mentioned the nogaps, JMA, cras, and all the second tier models in their afd's? They seem useless and have a completely different solution every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21Z SREF mean shifted NW and is wetter compared to the 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Not that it matters but the 0z NO LOLGAPS looks like the 12z GGEM. ENE moving low off the MA coast. Fixed!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LOT MS Paint map lolz... http://www.crh.noaa....=63314&source=0 does LOT not know you can buy photoshop elements for about 80-85 bucks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21Z SREF mean shifted NW and is wetter compared to the 15Z. Significantly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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