Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We're seeing fairly good consistency though. 23" is the magic number for Chicago...can it be dethroned? Best chance they've had in a long time IM-amateur-O. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 can you post the 500 heighs please Prinsburg? 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 500 thank you sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think it was designed to handle stuff like that. Then again, it's not really designed to handle the ridiculous DGZ depths being progged either. SLRs are going to be a tough one to hammer out, but I think it's relatively safe to say that a general 15:1 should be widespread, with some places probably much higher than that. Yeah thats true. It will be pretty solid ratios either way regardless if flakes are blasted--this thing looks epic. The drift potential is going to be very high and will wreak havoc is anything close to the 15+" is realized across the blizzard prone areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am thinking about buying a power generator Where are u in Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z ukie 72 0z NAM 996 at the time. Ukie may be like 20 miles farther east at that point. Noise really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 500 If that verified with a beefcake S/W like that--it would be devastating. I don't buy that solution though. I haven't seen anything with a shortwave that strong yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 LSD will be shut down with even 60% of the NAM qpf. We've got a good 100 yards or more of near shore ice for snow to fall on and blow ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's amazing to pan through the 00Z GFS 850 temps and just watch the frontogenesis over MO and IL between 30 and 48. Textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks for the link. How do I interpret the following though for FWA? http://www.meteo.psu...NUS_NAM_00.html This is my first time visiting the bufkit site. Where do I pull the precip type and amounts from all of that data? http://www.meteor.ia...phtml?site=kfwa (just change the site which you want to view, example klnk=lincoln, ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Through 66 the GFS is mostly the same--I don't think it will trend N on this run at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 BTW--do we have any folks in the North Platte, NE region?? Soon I will be forecasting for them I know im a little late on this but congrats! Best wishes to you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 a tad weaker and a hair further south at 78hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00z GFS furthur east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 looks like GFS shifted SE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Through 66 the GFS is mostly the same--I don't think it will trend N on this run at least. Track is almost exactly the same through 84 even though the storm is a tad weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 GFS is coming in... You'll be back to reality after you see it. GFS gives me 12-15 inches or more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherguru Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Skilling 8 minutes ago: The jet stream's critical role in producing winter storms was highlighted in an important scientific paper which came out in 1987 from Dr. Louis Uccellini and Paul Kocin. With all the talk of storm tracks & model precip estimates today, the Uccellini/Kocin paper is relevant as we watch a storm which threatens to turn i...nto a full blown blizzard coming together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still some differences to be ironed out between the NAM and GFS in regards to the northern stream system. This might still be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 QPF's roughly about the same this way, but I prefer this run better since we're safely within the deformation band and not flirting with dry slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z GFS looks a very small tick further north with the slp at 78 versus the 12z at 90. Precip shield abit farther north and east into IL. A smasher. EDIT: late to the punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still some differences to be ironed out between the NAM and GFS in regards to the northern stream system. This might still be an issue. Yeah could very well be noise--who knows. I am interested in seeing if the ensemble mean shifted either which way much--or if the intensity is different. The GFS shows feedback effects later on after 84--so being even a tad bit too slow in development of the non-linear feedback process--it can throw it off. I have to think it will be more intense and stronger than the GFS has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Indy looked to be more snow than ice with that run. I pray it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just got in. Looks like the 0z NCEP models didn't disappoint. GFS seemed a little drier but the NAM was out of this world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Indy looked to be more snow than ice with that run. I pray it stays that way. Honestly I think Indy could be ground zero for the ice.. Really has been trending that way lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I cant believe most of Indiana is looking at 2-2.5 inches of QPF with only far southern Ind. actually getting plain rain. Most of us are going to get clocked in one form or the other. I forsee a few vacation days for me. Monday I'll stock up on beer and firewood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 00z GFS adjusts everything in the northern stream eastward a bit compared to the 18z... the Alaskan trough, east pac/sw Canada ridge, and the northern part of our storm, which is why the qpf field has been shifted back se a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is going to be one of those events where people are going to get 14-16" of snow and feel like they got screwed because a bunch more people got 24"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah could very well be noise--who knows. I am interested in seeing if the ensemble mean shifted either which way much--or if the intensity is different. The GFS shows feedback effects later on after 84--so being even a tad bit too slow in development of the non-linear feedback process--it can throw it off. I have to think it will be more intense and stronger than the GFS has. Am i correct in assuming that it would be better to compare to 12z vs 18z based on the stuff the models get at each run? Always seems that the 06z/18z runs are a bit different then 12/00z and my guess is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah could very well be noise--who knows. I am interested in seeing if the ensemble mean shifted either which way much--or if the intensity is different. The GFS shows feedback effects later on after 84--so being even a tad bit too slow in development of the non-linear feedback process--it can throw it off. I have to think it will be more intense and stronger than the GFS has. Its own 300mb charts certainly suggest that. Good grief at that coupled jet structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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