LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's good right where it's at. Yeah, looking like sleet storm here.. over 1" of sleet per 00z NAM. Then a few inches of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IKK: 1.99" all snow. Really hard to buy these once in 100 year numbers, totally epic stuff being spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard23 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Could someone please post the NAM 00Z Bufkit at 84 hours for Fort Wayne. Also, what is the link to the Bufkit site? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I still suspect that shield will come a little further NW in a situation like this. I'm interested to see if the 00Z GFS continues to push it slightly north or ends the trend here, just south of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 You can see LE kicking into gear at hr 30 of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z NAM output for ORD: 1.63" 24.7" that from Bufkit? really good ratios for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Could someone please post the NAM 00Z Bufkit at 84 hours for Fort Wayne. Also, what is the link to the Bufkit site? Thanks! http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/data/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Really hard to buy these once in 100 year numbers, totally epic stuff being spit out. I agree. Do you really buy some of these really high numbers? I can see a foot but 25"? That seems a little nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Really hard to buy these once in 100 year numbers, totally epic stuff being spit out. We're seeing fairly good consistency though. 23" is the magic number for Chicago...can it be dethroned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does BUFKIT take into account blowing apart of flakes when it develops its snow ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I still suspect that shield will come a little further NW in a situation like this. I'm interested to see if the 00Z GFS continues to push it slightly north or ends the trend here, just south of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 That is where my knowledge for weather hits the wall. Wouldn't it still form into atleast pellets or small flakes as it falls into the colder temps. Depending on how cold the layers are between 850 and the surface, yes most likely sleet or at best rimed flakes. There is almost a 10º spread from 850 (3.5C) to 950 (-5.7) at hour 66 with surface temps at 25.6º for IND. Pretty awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I still suspect that shield will come a little further NW in a situation like this. I'm interested to see if the 00Z GFS continues to push it slightly north or ends the trend here, just south of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1.65" of FZRA / .41" of SLEET / 3.8" of SNOW for IND.. Could bring alot of things to halt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 We're seeing fairly good consistency though. 23" is the magic number for Chicago...can it be dethroned? If I was betting I would say no but records always have to be broken.Who knows I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If I was betting I would say no but records always have to be broken.Who knows I guess. Accurate measurements are going to be very difficult as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Well I mean to just avoid all ice. Not to be all snow. I understand for the all snow scenario I'd need a decent shift south. Sorry for the confusion. Ah, I got you...my bad. Yes, pl>>>>>>>>zr. Root hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 epic Cleveland never really has ice storms, so this would be extremely unusual (but what else about this storm isn't unusual or extreme?) This has the potential to be devastating here, particularly in my neighborhood. The amount of mature 100 year old trees on every street here is sure to cause significant structural damage and a power nightmare. This is my street, every house has one or two 100 year old oak trees in front: 3/4" of an inch of ice is going to send these through roofs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 no major hiccups on the 0z GFS through 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z ukie 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Accurate measurements are going to be very difficult as well. Completely agree. Do you buy these big numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Really hard to buy these once in 100 year numbers, totally epic stuff being spit out. Euro has been barking big QPF. And I'm pretty sure it used to have the best QPF verification numbers. It may not anymore though, not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z NAM at a 70kt jet at 850mb at 72hr down in MS/AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBerg Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Surface temps don't get out of the 20's there per this run. It's pretty hard to get the surface layer warmed up much around here when the winds are from the north and in this case, east...especially with the snow cover over most of the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Does BUFKIT take into account blowing apart of flakes when it develops its snow ratios? I don't think it was designed to handle stuff like that. Then again, it's not really designed to handle the ridiculous DGZ depths being progged either. SLRs are going to be a tough one to hammer out, but I think it's relatively safe to say that a general 15:1 should be widespread, with some places probably much higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Euro has been barking big QPF. And I'm pretty sure it used to have the best QPF verification numbers. It may not anymore though, not sure. oh yeah, the agreement is real, this stuff is just totally nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z ukie 72 can you post the 500 heighs please Prinsburg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Completely agree. Do you buy these big numbers? Well, I'm an amateur but I basically do. The Gulf is wide open and the dynamics are excellent, and given the relative consistency/agreement, I doubt the qpf would be overdone by much if at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think it was designed to handle stuff like that. Then again, it's not really designed to handle the ridiculous DGZ depths being progged either. SLRs are going to be a tough one to hammer out, but I think it's relatively safe to say that a general 15:1 should be widespread, with some places probably much higher than that. I know we've seen better than 15:1 ratios in lake enhanced defo bands associated with cutters. The winds might keep things in check from getting crazy in that department, but we won't be talking 10-12:1 (assuming anything like being modeled materializes of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard23 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 http://www.meteor.ia...en/bufkit/data/ Thanks for the link. How do I interpret the following though for FWA? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/CONUS_NAM_00.html This is my first time visiting the bufkit site. Where do I pull the precip type and amounts from all of that data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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