Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's updated here: http://wxcaster4.com...UCHERA_84HR.gif Thanks but the map on the site isnt loading it has the 12z amounts. Maybe I am clicking the wrong link. NAM 84hr Radar Site Overlays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 1.94" for Detroit as of 84hr on the 00z NAM and 26" per 00z NAM BUFKIT for Detroit, and it's STILL SNOWING heavily beyond 84hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 THIS CANT BE HAPPENING. TALK ME DOWN. NAM GIVES ME 18 inches on top of ice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 THIS CANT BE HAPPENING. TALK ME DOWN. NAM GIVES ME 18 inches on top of ice! GFS is coming in... You'll be back to reality after you see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Devastating. Not to be overly dramatic I guess, but verbatim that's crippling. Surface temps don't get out of the 20's there per this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z GFS coming in now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Devastating. Not to be overly dramatic I guess, but verbatim that's crippling. Hopefully we dont end up like Paducah back in Jan 09'. Just a minor shift south (50 miles) and we could stay mostly snow. Still a long ways out. Were talking the 84hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1.94" for Detroit as of 84hr on the 00z NAM and 26" per 00z NAM BUFKIT for Detroit, and it's STILL SNOWING heavily beyond 84hr. It wont happen!!! 1.90" at the most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What a mess here in Cleveland. NAM has 9.8" of snow, followed by 1 inch of sleet, followed by .81" of ice for a total 84 hr QPF of 2.14 inches. Temp never gets above 27 degrees for the event. epic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Any chance of rain or snow/rain mix by the lake? .00000001% it would be a solid Zero but Aleking's neigborhood has the worst luck so i have to cover that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Devastating. Not to be overly dramatic I guess, but verbatim that's crippling. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 It wont happen!!! 1.90" at the most Fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I notice Henry Margusity hasn't updated on accuweather. It doesn't look like his forecast his going to verify. He called for snow in the mid atlantic states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 STL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 830 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 UPDATE /830 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011/ THE 18Z RUNS AND FIRST GLANCE AT THE INCOMING 00Z NAM CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A VERY POWERFUL WINTER STORM IMPACTING THE REGION EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEGIN AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE IN WAVES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. ICE ACCUMULATION DURING THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SIGNIFICANT ICE AND SNOW/SLEET ACCUMULATION FORECAST BY NEARLY ALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE. EXACT AMOUNTS/PLACEMENT ARE STILL UP FOR DEBATE AND WILL DEPEND HIGHLY ON WHERE THE TRANSITION FROM FREEZING RAIN...TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW LAYS OUT ACROSS THE CWA. SLU ANALOGS COMPARE THIS UPCOMING WINTER STORM TO THE 1982 SNOW STORM THAT MANY REMEMBER IN ST. LOUIS AS THE BLIZZARD OF 82...AND THE JANUARY 30 2006 ICE AND SNOW EVENT THAT LEFT NEARLY 500000 PEOPLE WITHOUT POWER FOR DAYS ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS. THIS WINTER STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE CRIPPLING AMOUNTS OF SLEET AND SNOW...IN EXCESS OF 12 INCHES...AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 1/2 INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF THIS MAGNITUDE WOULD LEAD TO POWER OUTAGES FROM DOWNED TREES AND POWER LINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Surface temps don't get out of the 20's there per this run. Yep. Proof that going by the 850 line as the freezing line is not always the best move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Man, LAF is on a razor thin margin. 2"+ of QPF, but some of that will undoubtedly be sleet, as it appears there's just enough heat aloft to do some melting. WAA is typically underdone somewhat, so I would expect that the 00Z NAM BUFKIT would be a +SNPL mix. Would still end up with anywhere between 10-16" of mixed sleet and snow though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 .00000001% it would be a solid Zero but Aleking's neigborhood has the worst luck so i have to cover that hey, i had an 11" event last year and a 12.5" the year before that, i'm doing alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM 00Z Bufkit 84HRS: Chicago IL-24.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yep. Proof that going by the 850 line as the freezing line is not always the best move. That is where my knowledge for weather hits the wall. Wouldn't it still form into atleast pellets or small flakes as it falls into the colder temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM has a heavy stripe of ice from Indy to Cleveland. For Indy that would be .41" of sleet, and 1.65" of freezing rain. I think Beau Dodson's PAH area had ice amounts around 2 inches in their devastating storm in early 2009. Really serious. Worried if this verifies for Indpls on ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z NAM output for ORD: 1.63" 24.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hopefully we dont end up like Paducah back in Jan 09'. Just a minor shift south (50 miles) and we could stay mostly snow. Still a long ways out. Were talking the 84hr NAM. In reality, you need like 200 or more miles south. The mid levels are scorching in tandem with relatively "very" cold surface temps (<30º throughout the run). Not good, not good at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z NAM output for ORD: 1.63" 24.7" With it still snowing after 84hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 0z NAM output for ORD: 1.63" 24.7" MDW making a run at 30"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IKK: 1.99" all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think the Beau Dodson's PAH area had ice amounts around 2 inches in their devastating storm in early 2009. Really serious. Worried if this verifies for Indpls on ne. Yeah it was awful, Beau I recalled his blog trees snapping all around him. Large trees. That would be frightening to me to say the least... Whats this storm looking to do to So.Il as you experts can see??? Very curious to northern PAH counties will pan out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 124 users on a Sat night, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 In reality, you need like 200 or more miles south. The mid levels are scorching in tandem with relatively "very" cold surface temps (<30º throughout the run). Not good, not good at all. Well I mean to just avoid all ice. Not to be all snow. I understand for the all snow scenario I'd need a decent shift south. Sorry for the confusion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Man, LAF is on a razor thin margin. 2"+ of QPF, but some of that will undoubtedly be sleet, as it appears there's just enough heat aloft to do some melting. WAA is typically underdone somewhat, so I would expect that the 00Z NAM BUFKIT would be a +SNPL mix. Would still end up with anywhere between 10-16" of mixed sleet and snow though. Yep, I'd take it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's good right where it's at. Yeah, looking like sleet storm here.. over 1" of sleet per 00z NAM. Then a few inches of snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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