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January 31-February 2 MAJOR Winter Storm


Powerball

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When is the last time you had more than 10", again 12 years and ticking here... climatology always favors central/ne iowa and central mo to northern indiana... we arent in a spot that climatology likes here on the mississippi in eastern iowa.

Wow, I cant complain. Last year was epic for us, glad most people are here are gonna get hit good thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

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All I can say is, "it's about time". Two years to the day (almost) after the February 2009 megabust, mother nature may be about to lift our snow probation. Just imagine: 10-12" for ottawa, maybe 17" for Toronto. I mean, the province of Ontario could be shut down.

In a way, this could be even better than December 16,2007. Not in terms of snowfall - it'll likely be less in Ottawa - but in terms of what follows. The 2007 storm was followed by mild air. This storm will be followed by brutal, frigid, Siberian air the likes of which could freeze your livers. Imagine if we hit -30C again, without the win, with a fresh foot of snow on the ground being blown around by a gusty north or northwesterly wind.

i think you just summed up a lot of people's thoughts.

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I didn't say it was likely :weight_lift:

Glad to hear your confident in a major storm. You think the Chicago area is looking good or do your favor something a litle more southeast?

Yeah I think the blizzard threat is high. Dry adiabatic layer is deep, the wind fields in the low levels are extreme, and the DGZ will be producing dry fluff that will be blown apart by the wind. May cut ratios down--but that increases blowing potential. Non-linear development like this also increases mixing--as will the strong CAA.

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I live in New York City metro area now but went to college up at Northwestern in Evanston, Illinois and am definitely rooting for you Chicago guys vicariously. The great New Years storm of 1999 (which dumped 22 inches in Chicago) was during my junior year and I remember the excitement from Tom Skilling on WGN tracking that monster. Here's hoping for a Blizzard of '99 redux and may all you Midwest folks reap the snow bonanza us East Coasters have experienced the past two winters.

Jersey Andrew

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STL and MCI just posted watches

LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL...BOWLING GREEN...

COLUMBIA...MEXICO...JEFFERSON CITY

830 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER

STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH

WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE

IN WAVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND

SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON

TUESDAY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH

AND SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT

AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

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Alek mentioned the lake effect. Just looking at the NAM it seems like lake enhancement/LES could really ramp up rates quite a bit higher then what they are currently for NE IL/SE WI. I know it's early to talk about this but this could be dramatic besides the storm itself. Any thoughts from you guys??

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Yeah I think the blizzard threat is high. Dry adiabatic layer is deep, the wind fields in the low levels are extreme, and the DGZ will be producing dry fluff that will be blown apart by the wind. May cut ratios down--but that increases blowing potential. Non-linear development like this also increases mixing--as will the strong CAA.

Not sure if you know, but i live lakeside. So if things get cranking with NE winds off the lake, i'll get some rooftop footage of the action.

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When is the last time you had more than 10", again 12 years and ticking here... climatology always favors central/ne iowa and central mo to northern indiana... we arent in a spot that climatology likes here on the mississippi in eastern iowa.

Yeah they're definitely few and far between. A few lucky ones I can remember was the Jan '95 blizzard where we got pegged with some of the heaviest amounts around. Over 15" IIRC. The Dec '87 and Jan '99 blizzards as well. Those are the only ones I can remember where a foot or more fell on the QC.

I'm happy to see the NAM recover a bit from the bogus 18z run. We miss the heaviest snows, but would still cash in on a decent snow. This run is just SICK for central Illinois to northwest Indiana. 15-20" over a relatively wide band is looking less and less a fantasy as we get closer. :snowman:

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Alek mentioned the lake effect. Just looking at the NAM it seems like lake enhancement/LES could really ramp up rates quite a bit higher then what they are currently for NE IL/SE WI. I know it's early to talk about this but this could be dramatic besides the storm itself. Any thoughts from you guys??

it won't be a ton since lake temps are pretty cool, but as 850s really crash on the back end of the defo band, i think things could get pretty wild. We've certainly had it happen before with less impressive set ups.

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Alek mentioned the lake effect. Just looking at the NAM it seems like lake enhancement/LES could really ramp up rates quite a bit higher then what they are currently for NE IL/SE WI. I know it's early to talk about this but this could be dramatic besides the storm itself. Any thoughts from you guys??

I don't know if the models account for lake effect snow well at this range, but unaccounted for lake-effect snow added to the current totals could tip the scales for a blizzard even on the northwestern fringes here, I would think.

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