A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It won't here. Small details need to be worked out--but this will be a big event. I didn't say it was likely Glad to hear your confident in a major storm. You think the Chicago area is looking good or do your favor something a litle more southeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 When is the last time you had more than 10", again 12 years and ticking here... climatology always favors central/ne iowa and central mo to northern indiana... we arent in a spot that climatology likes here on the mississippi in eastern iowa. Wow, I cant complain. Last year was epic for us, glad most people are here are gonna get hit good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 it's one of the most epic fantast blizzards here lakeside i've seen inside 84hrs. 1.4" of all snow and decent ratios (and still snowing at 84) with a ripping NE wind off the lake. INSANE. But I'm greedy alittle more northwest lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 All I can say is, "it's about time". Two years to the day (almost) after the February 2009 megabust, mother nature may be about to lift our snow probation. Just imagine: 10-12" for ottawa, maybe 17" for Toronto. I mean, the province of Ontario could be shut down. In a way, this could be even better than December 16,2007. Not in terms of snowfall - it'll likely be less in Ottawa - but in terms of what follows. The 2007 storm was followed by mild air. This storm will be followed by brutal, frigid, Siberian air the likes of which could freeze your livers. Imagine if we hit -30C again, without the win, with a fresh foot of snow on the ground being blown around by a gusty north or northwesterly wind. i think you just summed up a lot of people's thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 As usual, right on cue. seperated at birth no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I didn't say it was likely Glad to hear your confident in a major storm. You think the Chicago area is looking good or do your favor something a litle more southeast? Yeah I think the blizzard threat is high. Dry adiabatic layer is deep, the wind fields in the low levels are extreme, and the DGZ will be producing dry fluff that will be blown apart by the wind. May cut ratios down--but that increases blowing potential. Non-linear development like this also increases mixing--as will the strong CAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 But hoosier put me on a 5 day post limit That is a bummer. You are hilarious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I didn't say it was likely Glad to hear your confident in a major storm. You think the Chicago area is looking good or do your favor something a litle more southeast? I can sense the weenie coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 But I'm greedy alittle more northwest lol It's good right where it's at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone know how much ice Indy is getting? and what form of ice is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 seperated at birth no doubt. funniest line I've heard all day lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What a mess here in Cleveland. NAM has 9.8" of snow, followed by 1 inch of sleet, followed by .81" of ice for a total 84 hr QPF of 2.14 inches. Temp never gets above 27 degrees for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I can sense the weenie coming out. coming out, it's been flopping around since this morning. If we get anything close to even an inch of QPF, i'll get some video lakeside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I live in New York City metro area now but went to college up at Northwestern in Evanston, Illinois and am definitely rooting for you Chicago guys vicariously. The great New Years storm of 1999 (which dumped 22 inches in Chicago) was during my junior year and I remember the excitement from Tom Skilling on WGN tracking that monster. Here's hoping for a Blizzard of '99 redux and may all you Midwest folks reap the snow bonanza us East Coasters have experienced the past two winters. Jersey Andrew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 and still snowing in some places. Still in 20+ area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 STL and MCI just posted watches LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...QUINCY...HANNIBAL...BOWLING GREEN... COLUMBIA...MEXICO...JEFFERSON CITY 830 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ST LOUIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING...LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE IN WAVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SLEET AND SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE TO SNOW ON TUESDAY AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATION OF LESS THAN ONE QUARTER INCH AND SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. * WINDS...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Alek mentioned the lake effect. Just looking at the NAM it seems like lake enhancement/LES could really ramp up rates quite a bit higher then what they are currently for NE IL/SE WI. I know it's early to talk about this but this could be dramatic besides the storm itself. Any thoughts from you guys?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah I think the blizzard threat is high. Dry adiabatic layer is deep, the wind fields in the low levels are extreme, and the DGZ will be producing dry fluff that will be blown apart by the wind. May cut ratios down--but that increases blowing potential. Non-linear development like this also increases mixing--as will the strong CAA. Not sure if you know, but i live lakeside. So if things get cranking with NE winds off the lake, i'll get some rooftop footage of the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Anyone know how much ice Indy is getting? and what form of ice is it? NAM has a heavy stripe of ice from Indy to Cleveland. For Indy that would be .41" of sleet, and 1.65" of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 coming out, it's been flopping around since this morning. If we get anything close to even an inch of QPF, i'll get some video lakeside. ORD: 1.30" MDW: 1.53" Through 84 hours. Let it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 When is the last time you had more than 10", again 12 years and ticking here... climatology always favors central/ne iowa and central mo to northern indiana... we arent in a spot that climatology likes here on the mississippi in eastern iowa. Yeah they're definitely few and far between. A few lucky ones I can remember was the Jan '95 blizzard where we got pegged with some of the heaviest amounts around. Over 15" IIRC. The Dec '87 and Jan '99 blizzards as well. Those are the only ones I can remember where a foot or more fell on the QC. I'm happy to see the NAM recover a bit from the bogus 18z run. We miss the heaviest snows, but would still cash in on a decent snow. This run is just SICK for central Illinois to northwest Indiana. 15-20" over a relatively wide band is looking less and less a fantasy as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Alek mentioned the lake effect. Just looking at the NAM it seems like lake enhancement/LES could really ramp up rates quite a bit higher then what they are currently for NE IL/SE WI. I know it's early to talk about this but this could be dramatic besides the storm itself. Any thoughts from you guys?? it won't be a ton since lake temps are pretty cool, but as 850s really crash on the back end of the defo band, i think things could get pretty wild. We've certainly had it happen before with less impressive set ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 25.9" for DET on BUFKIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Alek mentioned the lake effect. Just looking at the NAM it seems like lake enhancement/LES could really ramp up rates quite a bit higher then what they are currently for NE IL/SE WI. I know it's early to talk about this but this could be dramatic besides the storm itself. Any thoughts from you guys?? I don't know if the models account for lake effect snow well at this range, but unaccounted for lake-effect snow added to the current totals could tip the scales for a blizzard even on the northwestern fringes here, I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ORD: 1.30" MDW: 1.53" Through 84 hours. Let it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If this run were to verify, blizzard warnings in NW Indiana points NE? Most definitely....we haven't seen one like this in ages in this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM has a heavy stripe of ice from Indy to Cleveland. For Indy that would be .41" of sleet, and 1.65" of freezing rain. Devastating. Not to be overly dramatic I guess, but verbatim that's crippling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 coming out, it's been flopping around since this morning. If we get anything close to even an inch of QPF, i'll get some video lakeside. Any chance of rain or snow/rain mix by the lake? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Any chance of rain or snow/rain mix by the lake? Zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Any chance of rain or snow/rain mix by the lake? on any of the runs today, not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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