Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 How can you tell where the DGZ is? Where the temperatures range from -12*C to -18*C in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 there is our insanely deep DGZ for here..from the 18z GFS for 12z weds morning. Almost 400mb deep. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND IMPRESSIVE QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS BEING INDICATED IN SEVERAL MODELS HEIGHTEN THE CONCERN FOR A MAJOR WINTER STORM AND HEAVY SNOWFALL EVENT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN COLD THERMAL PROFILES SUGGESTING LIQUID TO SNOW RATIOS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 20 TO 1 NORTH AND 15 TO 1 SOUTH WITH OPTIMAL SNOW GROWTH. MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECASTS AT THIS TIME RANGE TEND TO BE OVERDONE BUT CONSENSUS SEEMS TO BE AN INCH OR MOREOF PRECIPITATION...WITH LATEST 12Z ECMWF CLOSER TO 2 INCHES OF QPF FOR ENTIRE EVENT. EVEN A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THESETOTALS WILL YIELD A SIGNIFICANT SNOW BAND OF UPWARDS OF A FOOT WITHIN HEAVIEST AXIS. THE EXTREME END COULD YIELD UPWARDS OF 20 INCHES...A RARE EVENT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT FOR OUR AREA. COMPLICATING THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT WILL BE AN INCREASING PRESSUREGRADIENT BETWEEN 996MB LOW PRESSURE AND 1046MB SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL CREATE SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE DRIER SNOW WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH LESS SNOW AMOUNTS. That is part of this evening's Area Forecast Discussion from the National Weather Service in Northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Almost 400mb deep. Awesome. Another key factor is that it nearly extends to the ground. So you can continue crystal growth almost to the surface. Conversely, as has been mentioned already, the winds will have a significant effect on breaking up the dendrites as they fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Goodluck to those to my south and east I hope you experience serious rate with blizzard conditions it is awesome. I am hoping we get some good WAA snows here in minny but we had our big fun earlier this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUWeatherFan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Let's see what this 00 UTC NAM can do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Another key factor is that it nearly extends to the ground. So you can continue crystal growth almost to the surface. Conversely, as has been mentioned already, the winds will have a significant effect on breaking up the dendrites as they fall. So the more wind the less the ratios are? Never paid attention to how the wind may affect ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 500 vort seems weaker and not closed on this run of the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 So the more wind the less the ratios are? Yes, because it breaks up the dendrites that pile up the quickest. However, the impacts become greater due to blowing and drifting. So really a catch 22 from an operational standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 My sister was living in Springfield when this event happened. It was chaos in the city as everything went down. They had to move down to Branson and live in a hotel for over a week for this. yeah it was pretty bad and I hope nobody sees that kind of ice accumulation. The only catch is, seeing sleet kind of pisses you off since you know just a few degrees and it could be snow piling up. Congrats on your internship. You have a real passion for meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 re: 00z NAM, I don't see any significant changes through 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM looks a bit better then 18z so far in terms of heading more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUWeatherFan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM looks a bit better then 18z so far in terms of heading more NW. Would you say that according to the precipitation shield or area of low pressure. It looks pretty much the same as the 18 UTC in terms of wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The low is farther north comparing hr 39 0z to hr 45 18z. WAA snows in minny are more impressive so far as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wrt heights at h5 at hr 30, the 00z NAM looks a carbon copy of the 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 NAM through 36 hours--the upper height field has some small changes. One big change is the southern stream wave and a stronger mid-level wind max near the base of the overall PV max. What I think will happen is as the trough ejects over the plains that speed max will pivot to the eastward side of the PV max and will likely be stronger than the 18Z solution. We will see--this has potential to tick N-NW if that speed max can advect enough DPVA to speed up the wave into the plains ahead of the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hmm--NAM is weird through 45. Lets see what it does--for some reason it is lagging the southern PV max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hmm--NAM is weird through 45. Lets see what it does--for some reason it is lagging the southern PV max. gonna be NW of 18z but not way north west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Going neutral over Ern NM at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUWeatherFan Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 gonna be NW of 18z but not way north west. 1048 MB High pressure is almost identical to the 18UTC run, except a little bit further south and east, probably only about 20 miles or so... Otherwise, they look very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think NAM will be a tick N based on 57 hours. Stronger surface low and a tad bit more early DPVA ejecting into the plains early means this will feedback and tick N through the latter stages of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Galveston low at 60hr? wow! that is awesome..this might shoot right out of the Western GOM into Indiana and kill us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 1004 mb low near Corpus Christi at 60 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HR 60 has a Sub 1004 low in S. Texas. About 4 MB stronger then 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 mid level and low level temps CRASHING at HR 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At hr 57 it looks like a nice swat of WAA snows in Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Going neutral over Ern NM at 54. Yeah the height field does look better now through 60. This is going N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 At hr 57 it looks like a nice swat of WAA snows in Illinois. You sure that is snow? Looks like it is too warm in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The National Weather Service in St Louis Mizzou just issued Winter Storm Watches for their entire County Warning Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's pretty clear by 63hrs it's going to be farther NW than the 18z run...maybe close to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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