Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 18z GEFS is even more impressive than the run 24 hours ago I was discussing. We are now looks at 4 sigma anomalies at 850 of both the easterly wind (cold conveyor) and southerly wind (LLJ - and how that will relate to moisture transport). What is that better than about 99.9% of cases? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How about the 18z GFS Bufkit for Findlay (KFDY)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The DGEX isn't always crap. I saved this image from last year's mid atlantic snow blitz. It pretty much nailed it first to a T days out, including the 40 inch lollipops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And Bufkit caps snow ratios at 25:1. These types of DGZs are not strangers to higher ratios. Yeah, my jaw dropped when I saw those DGZs being progged and sustained for a while. A 925-500mb DGZ is nothing to fool around with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, my jaw dropped when I saw those DGZs being progged and sustained for a while. A 925-500mb DGZ is nothing to fool around with. I guess the wind would be the only thing that could keep the ratios from being sky high. Gonna be tricky to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't think anyone wants to be staring down the barrel of a 2" ice storm, I have seen what 3/4" of ice does to trees and power when I was at college. Yep..Ice is nasty nasty stuff. We had two ice storms in 2007 that were 1"+ Our community was cleaning up limbs for a year after the storm was over. Trees with vertical limbs like Bradford Pear trees can't take it and usually end up splitting down the middle. Branches on older trees break off and end up in people's houses. If your power goes out, it may be out for days depending on how much damage was done and if the electric company can get there due to limbs all over the roads. Overall, not a good situation. Images around Springfield, MO thanks to NWS Springfield: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, my jaw dropped when I saw those DGZs being progged and sustained for a while. A 925-500mb DGZ is nothing to fool around with. DGZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Underdone?GFS usually seems overdone. I meant it seems to be one of the weaker models in terms of generating precipitation. Until the last run or two, the Euro had much more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yep..Ice is nasty nasty stuff. We had two ice storms in 2007 that were 1"+ Our community was cleaning up limbs for a year after the storm was over. Trees with vertical limbs like Bradford Pear trees can't take it and usually end up splitting down the middle. Branches on older trees break off and end up in people's houses. If your power goes out, it may be out for days depending on how much damage was done and if the electric company can get there due to limbs all over the roads. Overall, not a good situation. Images around Springfield, MO thanks to NWS Springfield: My sister was living in Springfield when this event happened. It was chaos in the city as everything went down. They had to move down to Branson and live in a hotel for over a week for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, my jaw dropped when I saw those DGZs being progged and sustained for a while. A 925-500mb DGZ is nothing to fool around with. Yeah I don't even know if I have ever seen a DGZ that large in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 DGZ? Dendritic Growth Zone. Basically where ice crystals form in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 What is that better than about 99.9% of cases? Safe to say it is progging significant dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah I don't even know if I have ever seen a DGZ that large in this area. 12/26/09 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 if the 18z GFS is right, then mom and dad here in Flora are literally looking down the barrel of 2" of ice bufkit for SLO 25 miles west of Flora 2.9" of snow 2" of Freezing rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12/26/09 here Yeah, that one dumped 8-12" on .25" of liquid. Amazing system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 12/26/09 here Fake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 18z GEFS isn't the only ensemble forecast hinting at those magnitudes either. The SREF and CMC ensembles are also on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 there is our insanely deep DGZ for here..from the 18z GFS for 12z weds morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 18z GEFS is even more impressive than the run 24 hours ago I was discussing. We are now looks at 4 sigma anomalies at 850 of both the easterly wind (cold conveyor) and southerly wind (LLJ - and how that will relate to moisture transport). very very nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 It's rare you see 1 inch plus amounts in MI/IN/OH region but what is more impressive are the high temps during the storm. High temps are forecasted to top out at 21 degrees here in SE MI. I know your not supposed to depend on ratios but this is the most incredible setup I have seen. Time to hop in the time machine and fast forward to tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, that one dumped 8-12" on .25" of liquid. Amazing system. my #1 fav event due to its surprise nature, 2"/hr rates for 3 straight hours and final total of 12.2" but this system might but that one at #2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The DGEX isn't always crap. I saved this image from last year's mid atlantic snow blitz. It pretty much nailed it first to a T days out, including the 40 inch lollipops. yeah that was one of the remarkable performances by the DGEX to be sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21Z SREF 60, 72 & 84 slp maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I cant believe this is going to happen. One way or another this will be historic if we get even 75 percent of what they show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Nice map prinsburg_wx. Would it be possible for you to omit the ETA members and make a mean from just the other models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 there is our insanely deep DGZ for here..from the 18z GFS for 12z weds morning. How can you tell where the DGZ is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, that one dumped 8-12" on .25" of liquid. Amazing system. Lets use that as a template so i can get my 40-60" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How can you tell where the DGZ is? A good ballpark is -10 to -20 C, but more specifically -12 to -18 C is the preferred DGZ. Edited for fat fingering the keyboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 From WFO Downsview There is hope, but we snow-storm lovers must pray hard... Kuhny On Storm Patrol IN THE LONGER RANGE..AFTER A QUIET AND COLD START MONDAY WITH THE WHOLE PROVINCE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HUGE E-W RIDGE OVER NRN ONTARIO..THINGS BEGIN TO GET QUITE INTERESTING WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS POSSIBLE FOR SRN ONTARIO. THE NAM/SREF AND EXTRAPOLATING THE 18Z GEM EWD ALL SUGGEST A LEAD IMPULSE OF SNOW FROM A STABLE WAVE PASSING JUST S OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PERHAPS A FEW CM OF SNOW FROM THIS..BUT WITH COLD ENELY FLOW FORECAST OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WE MAY BE DEALING WITH AN EMBEDDED SNOWSQUALL GIVING MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO PLACES LIKE OAKVILLE TO HAMILTON TO NIAGARA (DEPENDING ON EXACT WIND DIRECTION) OFF THE LAKE. BRISK WINDS FROM THIS MAY ALSO BE AN ISSUE. THEN AFTER A RELATIVE LULL LATER TUESDAY..THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A TEXAS-LOUISIANA TYPE LOW TO TRACK NEWD..AND IF IT IS ABLE TO TRACK NEWD UP THE W SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS LONG ENOUGH BEFORE HOPPING TO THE COAST..WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM ACROSS AT LEAST THE SRN PARTS OF SRN/ERN ONTARIO. THERE STILL IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW..SO WILL OF COURSE MONITOR CLOSELY. HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ISSUES INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A VERY INTERESTING GROUNDHOG DAY. IF GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT ENOUGH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO..AN EARLY HEADS UP TYPE OF SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY BE ISSUED SOMETIME SUNDAY OR INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE NRN ONTARIO WILL BASICALLY BE ON THE SIDELINES..MOSTLY SUNNY AND C..C..COLD UNDER THE LARGE ARCTIC RIDGE. STAY TUNED. THIS COULD BE VERY INTERESTING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 How can you tell where the DGZ is? It's not labeled on there, but it's between the -12 and -18C isotherms, or the temperature at which the difference between the saturation vapor pressure of ice and water vapor is the biggest, and therefore the zone in which the fastest and most efficient growth of ice crystals occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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