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January 31-February 2 MAJOR Winter Storm


Powerball

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The 18z GEFS is even more impressive than the run 24 hours ago I was discussing. We are now looks at 4 sigma anomalies at 850 of both the easterly wind (cold conveyor) and southerly wind (LLJ - and how that will relate to moisture transport).

What is that better than about 99.9% of cases?

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I don't think anyone wants to be staring down the barrel of a 2" ice storm, I have seen what 3/4" of ice does to trees and power when I was at college.

Yep..Ice is nasty nasty stuff. We had two ice storms in 2007 that were 1"+

Our community was cleaning up limbs for a year after the storm was over.

Trees with vertical limbs like Bradford Pear trees can't take it and usually end up splitting down the middle. Branches on older trees break off and end up in people's houses.

If your power goes out, it may be out for days depending on how much damage was done and if the electric company can get there due to limbs all over the roads.

Overall, not a good situation.

Images around Springfield, MO thanks to NWS Springfield:

ice07%20005.jpg

icestorm07%20058.jpg

icestorm07%20040.jpg

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Yep..Ice is nasty nasty stuff. We had two ice storms in 2007 that were 1"+

Our community was cleaning up limbs for a year after the storm was over.

Trees with vertical limbs like Bradford Pear trees can't take it and usually end up splitting down the middle. Branches on older trees break off and end up in people's houses.

If your power goes out, it may be out for days depending on how much damage was done and if the electric company can get there due to limbs all over the roads.

Overall, not a good situation.

Images around Springfield, MO thanks to NWS Springfield:

My sister was living in Springfield when this event happened. It was chaos in the city as everything went down. They had to move down to Branson and live in a hotel for over a week for this.

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It's rare you see 1 inch plus amounts in MI/IN/OH region but what is more impressive are the high temps during the storm. High temps are forecasted to top out at 21 degrees here in SE MI. I know your not supposed to depend on ratios but this is the most incredible setup I have seen. Time to hop in the time machine and fast forward to tuesday.

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From WFO Downsview

There is hope, but we snow-storm lovers must pray  hard...

Kuhny On Storm Patrol

IN THE LONGER  RANGE..AFTER A QUIET AND COLD START MONDAY WITH THE 
WHOLE PROVINCE UNDER THE  INFLUENCE OF THE HUGE E-W RIDGE OVER NRN 
ONTARIO..THINGS BEGIN TO GET QUITE  INTERESTING WITH TWO SIGNIFICANT 
SYNOPTIC SNOW EVENTS POSSIBLE FOR SRN  ONTARIO. THE NAM/SREF AND 
EXTRAPOLATING THE 18Z GEM EWD ALL SUGGEST A LEAD  IMPULSE OF SNOW 
FROM A STABLE WAVE PASSING JUST S OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES  MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PERHAPS A FEW CM OF SNOW FROM THIS..BUT WITH  
COLD ENELY FLOW FORECAST OFF OF LAKE ONTARIO WE MAY BE DEALING WITH 
AN  EMBEDDED SNOWSQUALL GIVING MORE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW TO 
PLACES LIKE  OAKVILLE TO HAMILTON TO NIAGARA (DEPENDING ON EXACT WIND 
DIRECTION) OFF THE  LAKE. BRISK WINDS FROM THIS MAY ALSO BE AN 
ISSUE. THEN AFTER A RELATIVE LULL  LATER TUESDAY..THERE IS A 
POTENTIAL FOR A TEXAS-LOUISIANA TYPE LOW TO TRACK  NEWD..AND IF IT IS 
ABLE TO TRACK NEWD UP THE W SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS LONG  ENOUGH 
BEFORE HOPPING TO THE COAST..WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A SIGNIFICANT  
SNOWSTORM ACROSS AT LEAST THE SRN PARTS OF SRN/ERN ONTARIO. THERE 
STILL  IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW..SO 
WILL OF COURSE  MONITOR CLOSELY. HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COULD BE 
SIGNIFICANT ISSUES  INTO WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A VERY INTERESTING 
GROUNDHOG DAY. IF GUIDANCE  REMAINS CONSISTENT ENOUGH OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO..AN EARLY HEADS UP TYPE OF  SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT MAY 
BE ISSUED SOMETIME SUNDAY OR INTO MONDAY.  MEANWHILE NRN ONTARIO WILL 
BASICALLY BE ON THE SIDELINES..MOSTLY SUNNY AND  C..C..COLD UNDER THE 
LARGE ARCTIC RIDGE. STAY TUNED. THIS COULD BE VERY  INTERESTING.

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How can you tell where the DGZ is?

It's not labeled on there, but it's between the -12 and -18C isotherms, or the temperature at which the difference between the saturation vapor pressure of ice and water vapor is the biggest, and therefore the zone in which the fastest and most efficient growth of ice crystals occurs.

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