MidwestChaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I know everyone is really excited about the snow, but PLEASE be concerned for us that could get a massive amount of ice. Can someone post some ice accumulation maps from the 12Z and 18Z GFS???????????? http://wxcaster.com/regional_snowfall.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Riding the edges on the clown map. Tippecanoe County (LAF) goes from 10" in the SE corner to 18" in the NW corner. No kidding.. 1" to 8" for Boone county.. Model giveth and model taketh.. At least with the 18z GFS, shows to be a sleet storm for me.. Which would be ok, no crippling ice or snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Those wxcaster maps have been dead right...but they have also been dead wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DGEX at 90. Look at those 6 hour amounts in N OH. HOLY CRAP! Take a look at the snowfall map.That's all post hour 84, tack on another 6-12" before that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Do you have the 18z GFS BUKIT numbers for KDTW or KDET? I'll get those up for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 HOLY CRAP! Take a look at the snowfall map.That's all post hour 84, tack on another 6-12" before that! That's most likely the 18z NAM extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HOLY CRAP! Take a look at the snowfall map.That's all post hour 84, tack on another 6-12" before that! DGEX is the NAm extended basically? I know It's been dicussed several times. On GFs data though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Now the 18z Snow/Sleet/Zr map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 DGEX is the NAm extended basically? I know It's been dicussed several times. On GFs data though? Pretty much. See my last post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The new 21z SREF isn't out yet. my bad lol don't know why I put that. excitement must be getting to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am anxiously awaiting the 0z NAM here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Although it's called the clown map for a reason, that 18z GFS snow map is astonishing. The 18+ band looks to be about 150 miles wide. Could we push that 30 miles SE please, it's a lot easier to walk in 18" of snow than 5" with .4-.5" of ice on top.... although should that verify I would expect Eastern Illinois University to be closed...... Actually no matter WHAT I expect EIU to be closed at least Tuesday night classes and Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I am anxiously awaiting the 0z NAM here shortly. I'm with ya! Would love to see some se movement to at least get out of the ice storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't want to wish away anyone's snow but I'm hoping for a NW tend to continue. The 1.5" inches of ice in 2009 was enough for awhile, I'll take the rain. I would wish for a more southern solution but I think that is less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Some BUFKIT numbers from the 18Z GFS, using max temp in profile method: KSTL .5" ice 1" sleet 12-14" snow KLAF 1.5" sleet, some of that mixed in with the snow ~13-15" snow - lower ratios KPIA 21" snow -- awesome ratios (1.3" QPF) KDPA 17" snow -- awesome ratios (1.1" QPF), DGZ > 400mb deep for a while KORD 20" snow -- awesome ratios (1.25 QPF), DGZ > 400mb deep for a while And Bufkit caps snow ratios at 25:1. These types of DGZs are not strangers to higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Lake Erie is for the most part frozen over. I'm trying to envision what happens when 2 feet of fresh snow falls on a flat 100 mile plane accompanied with 40 mph winds with no barriers. The drifts here at the lakeshore would be mind boggling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jendoc Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thanks for all of the updates on this! I learn more and more each time I follow one of these threads. Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Funny how everybody wants to miss the "ice" portion of the storm and would be willing to 'sacrafice" the snow with a further NW track just to avoid the ice. Not me.. Ill take the ice. I'm rooting for snow. That's the risk. If it don't swing far enough se its gonna be ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Lake Erie is for the most part frozen over. I'm trying to envision what happens when 2 feet of fresh snow falls on a flat 100 mile plane accompanied with 40 mph winds with no barriers. The drifts here at the lakeshore would be mind boggling! If the setup holds in terms of snow/wind, and based on drifting accounts in previous big storms, I imagine there could be some 10-15 foot drifts especially in more open and rural areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Funny how everybody wants to miss the "ice" portion of the storm and would be willing to 'sacrafice" the snow with a further NW track just to avoid the ice. I don't think anyone wants to be staring down the barrel of a 2" ice storm, I have seen what 3/4" of ice does to trees and power when I was at college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the setup holds in terms of snow/wind, and based on drifting accounts in previous big storms, I imagine there could be some 10-15 foot drifts especially in more open and rural areas. Yeah, as luck would have it for us up here in Detroit Metro, Lake Huron is still open for business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 DGEX is the NAm extended basically? I know It's been dicussed several times. On GFs data though? Yeah the DGEX is the NAM/WRF NMM 4km core extended based on GFS boundary / etc data.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the setup holds in terms of snow/wind, and based on drifting accounts in previous big storms, I imagine there could be some 10-15 foot drifts especially in more open and rural areas. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Funny how everybody wants to miss the "ice" portion of the storm and would be willing to 'sacrafice" the snow with a further NW track just to avoid the ice. I get that, totally. I have been through a few ice storms. NOT fun. You haven't lived until you slide about 200' in your car, because of seriously icy streets. It was only by the grace of God I missed the signs, fire hydrants and 3 parked cars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Wow! We had 8-10 foot drifts outside of LAF in 2007 and there have been accounts of 15-20 foot drifts in 1978. I don't see why not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The 18z GEFS is even more impressive than the run 24 hours ago I was discussing. We are now looks at 4 sigma anomalies at 850 of both the easterly wind (cold conveyor) and southerly wind (LLJ - and how that will relate to moisture transport). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If the setup holds in terms of snow/wind, and based on drifting accounts in previous big storms, I imagine there could be some 10-15 foot drifts especially in more open and rural areas. It'd be like the January 1977 blizzard event in Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18Z GFS BUFKIT for more selected sites: KDTW 18" snow (1.2" QPF) KCMH 1" snow .5" sleet .2" freezing rain .9" RAIN KCLE 2" snow .5" sleet .2" ice .4" RAIN (surface temps very near freezing) 2" snow KTOL 12-14" snow, some PL mixed in during height of storm (1.3 QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yeah, I know what you mean. All I need is probably a 60 mile shift NW of the QPF to get near 20" territory. And that is the possibly underdone GFS. Underdone?GFS usually seems overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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