Hoar_Frost Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I take it they threw the 18z NAM out. Considering that it does not have the warm front leading the system--so, its solution is synoptically flawed--I would have disregarded the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Agreed. That map looks nearly spot on, although I could see the track shift about 20-25 miles farther NW then that. But in my opinion the "significant" changes are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Glad it isn't just me thinking that... How do you feel about where your sitting at right now? Im only 30 miles south of you and I still think we get alot of ice...then hopefully a thumping of snow on the backside like the 18z NAM show's. I may just explode if the EURO comes in just a tiny bit further south tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 All I gotta say is, clipper, skimper.... I actually expected more of these SW events this winter, but that whole blocking thing really screwed things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Askew Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If this SLP tracks into NE MS. So IL. looks to get a major icing event. Im getting generator prepped tomorrow and picking up a few items just in case.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 just got home from being out for 2hrs...ugh that was hell not having internet haha. good to see the 18z GFS continue its baby step trend in the northward direction. and hoping the NAM just had an off run and will come back north and showing the same intensity it was earlier. I think that is a pretty decent bet. MKX/DVN always seem to be bullish before LOT does so not a surprise there. and congrats to Baro! Note that the synoptic "logic" (if you will) of the 18Z NAM run is wrong. Warm fronts tend to lead cyclones, don't they? I think that it can be safely disregarded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looking at the 18z GFS BUFKIT.. IND gets 1.7" of snow and 1.26" of FZRA LAF gets 18" of snow and 1.44" of Sleet And this is why I have to try to stay grounded for now. There's gonna be a nasty gradient, we just don't know exactly where it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This seems surreal... Yeah, I have to agree with that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quite the cutoff, obviously I'd prefer more snow than ice. Im well north of KIND though, but probably not enough to make a diff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This seems surreal... It is dude. My excitement/anticipation level is Feb 2007-ish. Eh, it's probably past that right now. All that and I still think we're going to fighting p-type here in LAF. But the area of the region that could be effected by this with heavy snow and ice/sleet is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 And this is why I have to try to stay grounded for now. There's gonna be a nasty gradient, we just don't know exactly where it will be. Hopefully things shake out similiar to FEB. 07 so we can all at least get a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How do you feel about where your sitting at right now? Im only 30 miles south of you and I still think we get alot of ice...then hopefully a thumping of snow on the backside like the 18z NAM show's. I may just explode if the EURO comes in just a tiny bit further south tonight. I have been nervous but feel a tiny bit better after the Euro 12z and the 18z NAM/GFS runs. I know the mixing line won't be far away but it also wasn't in Valentine's Day 2007 and I made out very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have been nervous but feel a tiny bit better after the Euro 12z and the 18z NAM/GFS runs. I know the mixing line won't be far away but it also wasn't in Valentine's Day 2007 and I made our very well. I had sleet all day in that storm but still managed almost 10 inches. I'd take that in a heartbeat with some good winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I have been nervous but feel a tiny bit better after the Euro 12z and the 18z NAM/GFS runs. I know the mixing line won't be far away but it also wasn't in Valentine's Day 2007 and I made our very well. I was in South Bend today, so if you dont mind me asking how was the EURO today? Any better for c. ind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Looking more and more like that I will be looking at an all rain situation with a little bit of light snow on the back side. Congratulation guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Just doing a bit of catchup from my nap/sleep BI congrats on the excellent news, You will love the weather extremes out there. Plus I have visited North Platte before, its a very nice community. As for the models :wub: :wub: :wub: and I probably could put a few more up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Note that the synoptic "logic" (if you will) of the 18Z NAM run is wrong. Warm fronts tend to lead cyclones, don't they? I think that it can be safely disregarded. your from Geneva?? thats not good....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I was in South Bend today, so if you dont mind me asking how was the EURO today? Any better for c. ind? Much better. I was right on the edge but didn't go above freezing at 850. It might have went slightly above at another level. QPF was unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 Larry Cosgrove's thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Might have been posted already, and if so I apologize for doing it again. Reminder you can find these maps on this site under the "go to" tab on the upper right hand portion of the page/forum. 12z Euro ensemble mean at 72 and 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 some of these are definitely more wound up than the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 BTW--do we have any folks in the North Platte, NE region?? Soon I will be forecasting for them congrats man! thats why you were so excited yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 some of these are definitely more wound up than the op If the 18z OP wasn't high enough on QPF for your liking, might I offer the 18z GEFS with several members as high if not higher on QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 wow. looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Some BUFKIT numbers from the 18Z GFS, using max temp in profile method: KSTL .5" ice 1" sleet 12-14" snow KLAF 1.5" sleet, some of that mixed in with the snow ~13-15" snow - lower ratios KPIA 21" snow -- awesome ratios (1.3" QPF) KDPA 17" snow -- awesome ratios (1.1" QPF), DGZ > 400mb deep for a while KORD 20" snow -- awesome ratios (1.25 QPF), DGZ > 400mb deep for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 21z SREF at 850mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18z GFS is a little further NW than I thought it was going to be. If several mets are right and the models may not be showing a strong enough storm would that mean it could go even further NW or that the precip shield go be more expansive? LArry cosgrove has it going pretty far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Kooky. 0.75-1.00" in a six hour period in fairly good sized "isolated" areas. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.