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January 31-February 2 MAJOR Winter Storm


Powerball

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I'd also say even around St Louis the upper level dynamics could quickly change them right on over to plain ole snow too. Or during periods of more intense omega/lift they would become all snow pretty easily. It just may be all snow in periodic bursts. I think if you are in the mix zone keep the dynamics in mind...this could lead to some surprise heavy snow totals that may be forecast for sleet/snow or just sleet and ZR.

It's going to be brutal down that way. I still see a stripe of +ZR on the south side and some ZR/PL/SN on the north side for a while followed by heavy snows and driving winds to exacerbate the issue. I'll run the STL 18Z BUFKIT from the GFS when it comes up.

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And yes congrats BI!!!! you put your thoughts into such clear and concise sentences and I love reading it. its like taking a refresher course sometimes! I think sometimes I try to simplify things a bit to much. I'm always afraid of talking over everyone and confusing people. And sometimes I don't lay out my thoughts clearly.

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I decided to make 2 calls for this system. One today and One more Tomorrow night and maybe Monday Morning.

my city list:

STL:

BLV:(my hometown)

LAF:

ILX:

CHI:

SPG:

COL(Columbia MO.

Some Factors weighed.

1. Is QPF overdone? Or maybe Underdone. The 1st WAA may smash areas from STL To LAF and north with ice south snow north, with this going north and east from there.

This may give LAF a few shots in the arm with snow, a surprise 3-6 is not out of the question....the waa will yield heavy returns somewhere.

2. Exact track and Timing..models continue to advertise a East Texas/LA./AR to Central Indiana track or so. That leaves somewhere in MO, IL, IA, IN as the jackpot winners. this would also mean some ice for LAF and STL. I think ice will be limited but not sleet, which will contaminant things.

3. How much will things slow down? The GFS and the NAM both slow things down quite a bit in recent runs..the EURO is also having max qpf shift a bit south with LAF, CHI, STL in the slammer again.

the Ensembles are still somewhat south and models have trended that way but stronger and they have trended MUCH colder on the backside.

Chicago: 10" inches of snow. No ice or sleet

St. Louis: 12" inches of snow. 2 inches of sleet, quarter inch of ice on the front end.

Lincoln: 20 inches of snow. little ice and sleet..going to get crushed.

Columbia: 18 inches of snow. little to no sleet, .10 or so ice on the front end

Lafayette: 16 inches of snow, 1 inch of sleet front end, .10 tenth of ice front end.

Belleville: 9" inches of snow, 3 inches of sleet, .30 tenths of ice front end

Quad Cities(7-9) to Peoria(9-13) inches of snow.

Good luck all!

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I'd also say even around St Louis the upper level dynamics could quickly change them right on over to plain ole snow too. Or during periods of more intense omega/lift they would become all snow pretty easily. It just may be all snow in periodic bursts. I think if you are in the mix zone keep the dynamics in mind...this could lead to some surprise heavy snow totals that may be forecast for sleet/snow or just sleet and ZR.

hope so... cuz it would suck to have a 2006 repeat, or if the 18z models verify in QPF 09 repeat, only a few hundred miles north..

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I decided to make 2 calls for this system. One today and One more Tomorrow night and maybe Monday Morning.

my city list:

STL:

BLV:(my hometown)

LAF:

ILX:

CHI:

SPG:

COL(Columbia MO.

Some Factors weighed.

1. Is QPF overdone? Or maybe Underdone. The 1st WAA may smash areas from STL To LAF and north with ice south snow north, with this going north and east from there.

This may give LAF a few shots in the arm with snow, a surprise 3-6 is not out of the question....the waa will yield heavy returns somewhere.

2. Exact track and Timing..models continue to advertise a East Texas/LA./AR to Central Indiana track or so. That leaves somewhere in MO, IL, IA, IN as the jackpot winners. this would also mean some ice for LAF and STL. I think ice will be limited but not sleet, which will contaminant things.

3. How much will things slow down? The GFS and the NAM both slow things down quite a bit in recent runs..the EURO is also having max qpf shift a bit south with LAF, CHI, STL in the slammer again.

the Ensembles are still somewhat south and models have trended that way but stronger and they have trended MUCH colder on the backside.

Chicago: 10" inches of snow. No ice or sleet

St. Louis: 12" inches of snow. 2 inches of sleet, quarter inch of ice on the front end.

Lincoln: 20 inches of snow. little ice and sleet..going to get crushed.

Columbia: 18 inches of snow. little to no sleet, .10 or so ice on the front end

Lafayette: 16 inches of snow, 1 inch of sleet front end, .10 tenth of ice front end.

Belleville: 9" inches of snow, 3 inches of sleet, .30 tenths of ice front end

Quad Cities to Peoria: 7-10 inches of snow.

Good luck all!

That looks pretty good for an early guess.

Edit: I'd bump Peoria up quite a bit though, since they're pretty close to Lincoln.

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That looks pretty good for an early guess.

I tried to go with a compromise of the 12z gfs and 12z euro also weighing the ukmet and all of there ensembles.

the ensemble means are south and colder. The 12z euro has moved colder and south with heaviest snow and more ice.

so the trend is for the East Texas to South Central Indiana track.

If it bombs more and makes it to Detroit..well then there might be 20-30 inches between Lincoln, Chicago, and LAF.

I might be under playing the ice threat.

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I decided to make 2 calls for this system. One today and One more Tomorrow night and maybe Monday Morning.

my city list:

STL:

BLV:(my hometown)

LAF:

ILX:

CHI:

SPG:

COL(Columbia MO.

Some Factors weighed.

1. Is QPF overdone? Or maybe Underdone. The 1st WAA may smash areas from STL To LAF and north with ice south snow north, with this going north and east from there.

This may give LAF a few shots in the arm with snow, a surprise 3-6 is not out of the question....the waa will yield heavy returns somewhere.

2. Exact track and Timing..models continue to advertise a East Texas/LA./AR to Central Indiana track or so. That leaves somewhere in MO, IL, IA, IN as the jackpot winners. this would also mean some ice for LAF and STL. I think ice will be limited but not sleet, which will contaminant things.

3. How much will things slow down? The GFS and the NAM both slow things down quite a bit in recent runs..the EURO is also having max qpf shift a bit south with LAF, CHI, STL in the slammer again.

the Ensembles are still somewhat south and models have trended that way but stronger and they have trended MUCH colder on the backside.

Chicago: 10" inches of snow. No ice or sleet

St. Louis: 12" inches of snow. 2 inches of sleet, quarter inch of ice on the front end.

Lincoln: 20 inches of snow. little ice and sleet..going to get crushed.

Columbia: 18 inches of snow. little to no sleet, .10 or so ice on the front end

Lafayette: 16 inches of snow, 1 inch of sleet front end, .10 tenth of ice front end.

Belleville: 9" inches of snow, 3 inches of sleet, .30 tenths of ice front end

Quad Cities(7-9) to Peoria(9-13) inches of snow.

Good luck all!

How much for northwest Ohio?

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Probably very little additional N trend--but likely stronger and more intense low level cyclone than the GFS and even the Euro. SREF/NAM/nonhydro guidance will have an advantage here--and expect this will be stronger than the GFS currently progs. I would be excited if I was in your location and wanting some storm action.

You are KILLING me.

Congrats on the new job as well. Seems like a perfect fit for you with the extreme wx they get there. :thumbsup:

You guys are on a roll today. Thanks for all of the analysis. :)

And Baro, congrats on the forecasting gig.

This. I'll second it. :)

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just got home from being out for 2hrs...ugh that was hell not having internet haha.

good to see the 18z GFS continue its baby step trend in the northward direction. and hoping the NAM just had an off run and will come back north and showing the same intensity it was earlier. I think that is a pretty decent bet.

MKX/DVN always seem to be bullish before LOT does so not a surprise there.

and congrats to Baro!

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LOT finally on board?

This from the LOT office.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

406 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-

301000-

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-

LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...

WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...

WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...

FOWLER

406 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 /506 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011/

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES

REGION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...

A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT

NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA NEXT WEEK.

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY AND

CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION

POSSIBLE.

A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE

SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THE

EXACT TRACK OF THIS STORM. SMALL CHANGES IN THE TRACK CAN CAUSE

MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND LOCATIONS.

HOWEVER...IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW

WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

THE SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH

MUCH OF THE SNOW FALLING OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. WINDY

CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT CAUSING SIGNIFICANT

BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN

GREAT LAKES...MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. ANYONE WITH TRAVEL

PLANS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...INCLUDING THOSE TRAVELING THROUGH

CHICAGO OHARE AND MIDWAY AIRPORTS...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR

LATER FORECASTS REGARDING THIS WINTER STORM.

$$

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At least they note that the estimates are preliminary. Funny considering not much more than a day ago, they barely gave consideration to the system. Is it also possible the models are underdoing the QPF amounts in areas near Lake Michigan due to the unknowns of possible lake effect?

And to be a little more fair they did have this before the weenie map. Their Zone forecast really takes the cake to me.

Heavy Snow Possible on Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning

There is an increasing liklihood for a significant winter storm to affect portions of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes early next week. Long range computer guidance has been showing better consistency in this forecast scenario over the past several days, however, differences still exist in the exact track of the low pressure system.

Low pressure is expected to develop over Texas and track eastward Monday night. Low track differences are seen as the storm moves northeast into the Ohio River Valley Tuesday night and into Pennslyvania for Wednesday.

JPCStormTrackJan29.png

A large swath of heavy snow is likely from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions no matter which track the low pressure follows. If the low takes the more northern track, then portions of southern Wisconsin would be in a favorable location to receive significant snowfall exceeding 6 inches and possibly even more than a foot. The heavy snow would remain south of Wisconsin if the low were to take a more southerly track.

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Had to go and fix the dishwasher, and in 2 hours there was over 5 pages added to the thread.. :lol:

Caught a few of the local weather casters here (not Angela ChicagoWX), they are being very conservative with the storm. Saying could be alot of rain, and maybe a little ice (south of I-70) and an inch or two of snow (north of I-70).

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And to be a little more fair they did have this before the weenie map. Their Zone forecast really takes the cake to me.

Heavy Snow Possible on Tuesday Night and Wednesday Morning

There is an increasing liklihood for a significant winter storm to affect portions of the Midwest into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes early next week. Long range computer guidance has been showing better consistency in this forecast scenario over the past several days, however, differences still exist in the exact track of the low pressure system.

Low pressure is expected to develop over Texas and track eastward Monday night. Low track differences are seen as the storm moves northeast into the Ohio River Valley Tuesday night and into Pennslyvania for Wednesday.

JPCStormTrackJan29.png

A large swath of heavy snow is likely from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes regions no matter which track the low pressure follows. If the low takes the more northern track, then portions of southern Wisconsin would be in a favorable location to receive significant snowfall exceeding 6 inches and possibly even more than a foot. The heavy snow would remain south of Wisconsin if the low were to take a more southerly track.

Which track most likely to verify?

I would tend to think, going with model guidance that the far SE track is the least likely, I would think, based on guidance as well, that the most likely track is somewhere between the one in white, and that northern edge. Unless we see some large shift in the guidance back to the SE, I think the above map is pretty solid, and that "most likely" track in white stands a good chance of verifying.

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