baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 At this point I can't help but think there will be a bigger impact than '99 and could possibly come close to rivaling '78 in some areas. Only differences are that '78 was a more dazzling meteorological display and a bigger windmaker, but other than that??? I am watching the blizzaction potential for large metro areas like Chicago and into southern Michigan/Detroit. This definitely has potential--probably not 78 tho haha--that was the mother of all storms. This is probably not close to that phased bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah not yet it looks like. GFS itself is insane--it does seem the GFS will likely trend stronger given the Euro/nonhydro guidance. Agreed. GFS alone is wicked strong with the low level wind fields as that ridiculous baro zone is processed. I think if the Euro track were to verify and if the GFS keeps ticking a tad N, the SREF/NAM potential in terms of deepening are plain scary. This storm is looking more and more like a historic one. as one of the benefactors further north, i actually dont mind this solution. i get a great burst of heavy snow and i dont want to turn any of the folks further south of to rain, that would suck. i love historic storms, as long as i get 6+ and im a part of it im cool. the trough postion and the indices seem to show lots of potential beyond this storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Some folks complain about the GFS and claim its lack of value--but this is exactly why it is such a good and reliable global model. It typically makes small but verifiable and trackable changes in the height/dynamic fields that a forecaster can reliably make use of. Euro/GFS are the best global models for that very reason-IMO. Compare with the CMC--and the CMC looks like junk in comparison. yes, yes, yes!!! if i did this for a living, thats what i want.....thats all i want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 as one of the benefactors further north, i actually dont mind this solution. i get a great burst of heavy snow and i dont want to turn any of the folks further south of to rain, that would suck. i love historic storms, as long as i get 6+ and im a part of it im cool. the trough postion and the indices seem to show lots of potential beyond this storm too. It happens. Not everyone in this huge region will like certain shifts in track. Personally just tracking this beast is going to be amazing to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am watching the blizzaction potential for large metro areas like Chicago and into southern Michigan/Detroit. This definitely has potential--probably not 78 tho haha--that was the mother of all storms. This is probably not close to that phased bomb. Confluence over the Lakes caused by the proximity of the PV leads me to believe this can only track so far to the NW, but the 18z GFS showed the mid level center getting awfully close for people such as myself and those in Detroit. Do you think further substantial shifts to the NW are likely? Only asking because I'm not sure if I should put my excitement into 2nd gear or hold off and watch things unfold a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 MKE is really hyping things up. My god. THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. IT APPEARS THAT ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON TOP OF THE MONDAY SNOWFALL WILL TOP 6 INCHES SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LONE ROCK TO BEAVER DAM TO SHEBOYGAN. A FOOT OR MORE IS POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MONROE TO WAUKESHA TO MILWAUKEE. VERY COLD STORMS WITH LONG DURATIONS LIKE THIS IN THE PAST HAVE PRODUCED 2 FEET OR MORE OF SNOW IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S DURING MOST OF THE EVENT...DECREASING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF SALT. INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY NIGHT MAY RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE SHORE. THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM COULD BE HIGH GIVEN IT OCCURS DURING THE WORK WEEK. IN ADDITION...SNOW REMOVAL CREWS WILL BE CHALLENGED BY THE MORE THAN 48 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THAT COULD REALLY STRESS RESOURCES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It happens. Not everyone in this huge region will like certain shifts in track. Personally just tracking this beast is going to be amazing to watch. i know what you mean....you know me, im always in the east coast threads too, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Confluence over the Lakes caused by the proximity of the PV leads me to believe this can only track so far to the NW, but the 18z GFS showed the mid level center getting awfully close for people such as myself and Detroit. Do you think further substantial shifts to the NW are likely? Only asking because I'm not sure if I should put my excitement into 2nd gear or hold off and watch things unfold a little more. Additional shifts in that direction are likely to be smaller in magnitude since we are starting to get closer to the event, though a couple more would not surprise me in the least. Keep an eye on those 21Z SREF members when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Confluence over the Lakes caused by the proximity of the PV leads me to believe this can only track so far to the NW, but the 18z GFS showed the mid level center getting awfully close for people such as myself and those in Detroit. Do you think further substantial shifts to the NW are likely? Only asking because I'm not sure if I should put my excitement into 2nd gear or hold off and watch things unfold a little more. Probably very little additional N trend--but likely stronger and more intense low level cyclone than the GFS and even the Euro. SREF/NAM/nonhydro guidance will have an advantage here--and expect this will be stronger than the GFS currently progs. I would be excited if I was in your location and wanting some storm action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Probably very little additional N trend--but likely stronger and more intense low level cyclone than the GFS and even the Euro. SREF/NAM/nonhydro guidance will have an advantage here--and expect this will be stronger than the GFS currently progs. I would be excited. Baro, the thing that has me nervous about SE Missouri is the cold air. Do you think we are going to be borderline with transitioning back and forth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 BTW--do we have any folks in the North Platte, NE region?? Soon I will be forecasting for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Additional shifts in that direction are likely to be smaller in magnitude since we are starting to get closer to the event, though a couple more would not surprise me in the least. Keep an eye on those 21Z SREF members when they come out. Probably very little additional N trend--but likely stronger and more intense low level cyclone than the GFS and even the Euro. SREF/NAM/nonhydro guidance will have an advantage here--and expect this will be stronger than the GFS currently progs. I would be excited if I was in your location and wanting some storm action. BTW--do we have any folks in the North Platte, NE region?? Soon I will be forecasting for them You guys are on a roll today. Thanks for all of the analysis. And Baro, congrats on the forecasting gig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 BTW--do we have any folks in the North Platte, NE region?? Soon I will be forecasting for them Congrats BI! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DVN getting a little more bullish now. 12Z MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET CONTINUING TO LIFT THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ON A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COMPARED TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY GFS...WRF AND CANADIAN/GEM MODELS. MOISTURE FIELDS REMAIN SOMEWHAT SUSPECT...BUT IF THE WETTEST ECMWF VERIFIED WITH .50 TO .75 IN JUST THE 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME...WOULD EASILY SEE TOTALS OVER 12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST 2/3RDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You guys are on a roll today. Thanks for all the analysis. And Baro, congrats on the forecasting gig. csnavywx should be posting more--I love his analysis and input. And thanks--I am uber excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Congrats BI! Thanks man! I am really excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 csnavywx should be posting more--I love his analysis and input. And thanks--I am uber excited did you get the nws intern spot there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 BTW--do we have any folks in the North Platte, NE region?? Soon I will be forecasting for them Nice! Congrats man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 did you get the nws intern spot there? I did. I am so thankful--can't wait to get down there and work with them. The folks seem awesome in that office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Grats BI. You'll do great there. It sucks being on the very northern fringe of things here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nice! Congrats man. Thanks a lot man! Glad to see you in here again--you were gone for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 BTW--do we have any folks in the North Platte, NE region?? Soon I will be forecasting for them Congrats! That would be a very interesting location for weather too. High plains blizzards, and LP sups in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I did. I am so thankful--can't wait to get down there and work with them. The folks seem awesome in that office. awesome!!!!! Glad to hear you got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Probably very little additional N trend--but likely stronger and more intense low level cyclone than the GFS and even the Euro. SREF/NAM/nonhydro guidance will have an advantage here--and expect this will be stronger than the GFS currently progs. I would be excited if I was in your location and wanting some storm action. Music to my ears. And congrats on the new job. Hope you're into severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think we will eventually see a trend towards a stronger system in the models esp. the GFS there to much going on in the atmosphere to keep this weak. Combine the intensity fields from the NAM and combine/blend the tracks of the GFS/Euro which are getting closer and closer and you have what I think we will be dealing with. That initial WAA snow may also help up this way in terms of lessening the effect of a dry NE flow as the main show is occurring. I'm getting a bit more pumped about this. If I lived in KC, Quincy, Peoria, Chicago, Fort Wayne, Detroit, NW and North Ohio I'd be doing a hip hip hooray dance at all the snow I could be seeing. I think the Quad Cities is likely a bit to far NW to be in the heaviest snow band to be sure, but as our NWS forecaster stated, even with the moisture being printed out on the models we will make out quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Grats BI. You'll do great there. It sucks being on the very northern fringe of things here though. Congrats! That would be a very interesting location for weather too. High plains blizzards, and LP sups in the summer. Yeah definitely classic high plains weather. I am from the plains though so I will feel at home. I can't wait for the barrage of learning material that will be thrown at me I am ready to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 congrats, we do have some people in the york to lincoln to omaha areas on here and i make it out that far west sometimes in spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah definitely classic high plains weather. I am from the plains though so I will feel at home. I can't wait for the barrage of learning material that will be thrown at me I am ready to learn. Let me be the first to say, congrats! You know so much about dynamics, mesocacle aspects and of course the whole package about weather, that I think you will fit in just fine, if not be one of the better forecasters there. In fact I wish you were working for Upton NWS, but you are from the Plains... Just go to Lead South Dakota for all your snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'd also say even around St Louis the upper level dynamics could quickly change them right on over to plain ole snow too. Or during periods of more intense omega/lift they would become all snow pretty easily. It just may be all snow in periodic bursts. I think if you are in the mix zone keep the dynamics in mind...this could lead to some surprise heavy snow totals that may be forecast for sleet/snow or just sleet and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think we will eventually see a trend towards a stronger system in the models esp. the GFS there to much going on in the atmosphere to keep this weak. Combine the intensity fields from the NAM and combine/blend the tracks of the GFS/Euro which are getting closer and closer and you have what I think we will be dealing with. That initial WAA snow may also help up this way in terms of lessening the effect of a dry NE flow as the main show is occurring. I'm getting a bit more pumped about this. If I lived in KC, Quincy, Peoria, Chicago, Fort Wayne, Detroit, NW and North Ohio I'd be doing a hip hip hooray dance at all the snow I could be seeing. I think the Quad Cities is likely a bit to far NW to be in the heaviest snow band to be sure, but as our NWS forecaster stated, even with the moisture being printed out on the models we will make out quite well. Agree. This may not be our 10" storm, but we should still do very well from this. That's a really good point about the WAA snows moistening the boundary layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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