michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DTX expresses higher than normal confidence. Very rare to see that in a big storm like this. Still nervous but getting excited! LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY QUIET PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE BRIEF AS IT IS LOOKING INCREASING LIKELY THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT THE REGION FROM THE LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. IN FACT...INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHEARING OUT IN ADVANCE OF THIS MAIN STORM SYSTEM MAY VERY WELL BRING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ON THIS...FEEL LIGHT SNOW WILL BE LIKELY DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND WILL INCLUDE AN INCH OR TWO FOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM IN QUESTION IS WELL DEFINED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SPINNING INTO THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL DIG AROUND THE BASE OF A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE TRACK ESSENTIALLY TAKING IT THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THIS TIME FRAME...A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL SETTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS. MODELS VARY ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE CONUS...BUT ALL ARE SUFFICIENTLY AGGRESSIVE WITH IT TO ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WHICH WILL STEER THE SOUTHERN STREAM STORM SYSTEM NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH TIME...ONCE IT REORGANIZES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE RISK OF JINXING THE FORECAST...AS WINTER STORMS GO...THIS ONE APPEARS TO BE REASONABLY STRAIGHTFORWARD AT THIS POINT. THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVES THAT WILL INTERACT...AND DETERMINE TO A LARGE EXTENT THE TRACK OF THE MAIN STORM SYSTEM...ARE BOTH ALREADY WELL DEFINED. SO...THE EVOLUTION OF THE DEEPENING WESTERN TROUGH SHOULD BE RATHER CLEAN...AS WILL BE RESULTING STORM TRACK. BY FAR THE TRICKIEST PART OF THE FORECAST WILL COME AS THIS STORM SYSTEM TAKES AIM ON THE GREAT LAKES AND THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS MUCH OF THIS WINTER WILL ACT TO STEER THIS SYSTEM EAST ONCE IT LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THIS...ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED DOME OF POLAR/ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS/SOUTHERN CANADA WILL PRODUCE A SHARP EDGE TO THE MODERATE/HEAVY PRECIPITATION FIELD. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW WILL LIKELY ALIGN ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF LOWER MICHIGAN. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE FORECAST IS THAT THE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL SEEMS RELATIVELY HIGH...EVEN BEING 3-4 DAYS OUT FROM THE MAIN EVENT...ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS AREA WOULD EXTEND FROM SAY METRO DETROIT SOUTH TO THE OHIO BORDER WITH A SLIGHTLY LESSER PROBABILITY FURTHER NORTHWEST. AS FOR THE 12Z MODEL RUNS...CONSENSUS STRONGLY FAVORS SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS WELL NORTH THROUGH MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CWA...WITH THE SHARP CUT OFF TO LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS SITUATED THROUGH/JUST NORTH OF THE SAGINAW VALLEY. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TOWARDS THIS GENERAL IDEA...GIVEN THE HIGHER THAN NORMAL CONFIDENCE ATTM...BUT MAINTAIN THE LOWER CHANCES OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AS ABOUT HALF THE GLOBAL GEM ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND A FEW OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILL TRACK THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND JUST BRUSH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH THE BAND OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE NORTH OF THE STORM TRACK. IF CONSENSUS TRACK REMAINS SIMILAR TO TODAY ONCE THE SHORTWAVE IS ONSHORE AND SAMPLED EVEN BETTER ON SUNDAY...THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL CAN LIKELY BE EXTENDED FURTHER NORTH INTO THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB REGIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Anyone have a link to BUFKIT soundings? Specifically I am looking for MIE. It looks like we are going to be right on the line between epic snow and major ice. Thanks. http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/bufkit/training/gs_bufkitsites/gs_bufkitsites.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Seriously--GFS alone has close to blizzard conditions for Chicago area with that kind of mixing potential and that shallow dry adiabatic layer. CAA will help big too for horizontal momentum transport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think the NAM had one of its "toss it in the bin" runs in terms of the overall track since the northern stream interactions it has seem suspect. 18Z GFS is probably the one to take here--NAM just shows the potential for extreme deepening. Comes up pretty close to the Euro, but gets there somewhat differently. Biggest difference is the handling of the northern stream, which the GFS has east of the Euro's position and is a little more aggressive with moving it. It's relatively small, but still a shift north in the track. Past 3 runs have done exactly the same thing. Trend on the GFS is undeniable. I believe the SREFs (minus the ETA) are going to take this one to the bank. Even the NAM/ETA shows the explosive deepening potential, as you noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Actually, a SE shift wouldn't hurt, but this run is still perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have to go change my shorts.. BRB God dangit I only got one pair left... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 looking at surface now....Southern Michigan gets ROCKED! LAF riding the ragged edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Actually, a SE shift wouldn't hurt, but this run is still perfect. Look at the track of the mid level center. We wouldn't want this to trend any further NW. Leaves us prone to slotting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS has no WAA snows really, while NAM gives S. WI and minny a decent sized event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Its going to be a long few days with these models. The Euro gives, the NAM takes away and then the GFS gives it right back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS has no WAA snows really, while NAM gives S. WI and minny a decent sized event. My guess is that the truth is somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Doesn't look like, keeps it around 995 into the eastern Lakes area. Yeah not yet it looks like. GFS itself is insane--it does seem the GFS will likely trend stronger given the Euro/nonhydro guidance. Comes up pretty close to the Euro, but gets there somewhat differently. Biggest difference is the handling of the northern stream, which the GFS has east of the Euro's position and is a little more aggressive with moving it. It's relatively small, but still a shift north in the track. Past 3 runs have done exactly the same thing. Trend on the GFS is undeniable. I believe the SREFs (minus the ETA) are going to take this one to the bank. Even the NAM/ETA shows the explosive deepening potential, as you noted. Agreed. GFS alone is wicked strong with the low level wind fields as that ridiculous baro zone is processed. I think if the Euro track were to verify and if the GFS keeps ticking a tad N, the SREF/NAM potential in terms of deepening are plain scary. This storm is looking more and more like a historic one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Look at the track of the mid level center. We wouldn't want this to trend any further NW. Leaves us prone to slotting. While still in the heavy snow, I'm still flirting with dry slotting, especially at 96hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For anybody in doubt: All centered on 00Z WED 00Z GFS Last night: 06Z GFS 12Z GFS 18Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 My guess is that the truth is somewhere in the middle. What do you think of the new 18z GFS. I it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 looking at surface now....Southern Michigan gets ROCKED! LAF riding the ragged edge Yeah, I ran the soundings and there's a narrow layer that pokes just above freezing for a time, but it's obviously majority snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What do you think of the new 18z GFS. I it. How can you not it? Still 4 days to go though. I'll run bufkit for some weather pron in a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty easy to see the slow, but steady shifts to the north every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS has no WAA snows really, while NAM gives S. WI and minny a decent sized event. Not to the extent of the NAM, but it does have decent WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How can you not it? Still 4 days to go though. I'll run bufkit for some weather pron in a sec. Sounds good. Earl barkers map should be porn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah not yet it looks like. GFS itself is insane--it does seem the GFS will likely trend stronger given the Euro/nonhydro guidance. Agreed. GFS alone is wicked strong with the low level wind fields as that ridiculous baro zone is processed. I think if the Euro track were to verify and if the GFS keeps ticking a tad N, the SREF/NAM potential in terms of deepening are plain scary. This storm is looking more and more like a historic one. At this point I can't help but think there will be a bigger impact than '99 and could possibly come close to rivaling '78 in some areas. Only differences are that '78 was a more dazzling meteorological display and a bigger windmaker, but other than that??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty easy to see the slow, but steady shifts to the north every run. and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty easy to see the slow, but steady shifts to the north every run. Some folks complain about the GFS and claim its lack of value--but this is exactly why it is such a good and reliable global model. It typically makes small but verifiable and trackable changes in the height/dynamic fields that a forecaster can reliably make use of. Euro/GFS are the best global models for that very reason-IMO. Compare with the CMC--and the CMC looks like junk in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 114 User(s) are reading this topic 81 members, 29 guests, 4 anonymous users That has to be a record as well. Impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Moneyman gfs still gives southern minny .25 plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Some folks complain about the GFS and claim its lack of value--but this is exactly why it is such a good and reliable global model. It typically makes small but verifiable and trackable changes in the height/dynamic fields that a forecaster can reliable make use of. Euro/GFS are the best global models for that very reason-IMO. Didn't you in the past trash the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 north is good, now just want a little more west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah, I ran the soundings and there's a narrow layer that pokes just above freezing for a time, but it's obviously majority snow. wow totally destroyed :arrowhead: i cant even see indiana's state line under all that qpf lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 and east. Yes, slightly so. Definitely stronger, by about 4-8mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Didn't you in the past trash the GFS? Overall no. Perhaps in past events it had its ugly moments and I may have suggested "tossing" it or giving it less credence--but all guidance has those moments. I mean in an overall sense--a very solid global model. Buckeye said he thinks I am a "salesman" for the GFS. Not quite haha--but it is very good overall. In terms of specific storms sometimes it stinks it up--but the Euro does the same thing--as does every other model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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