Macintosh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A little dramatic? Absolutely not dramatic. I witnessed some life threatening situations in western KY during the Jan 2009 ice storm. I saw giant trees on top of houses, trapping residents. Fire trucks and rescue could not get to the homes because the ice was so bad. People were stranded. If you have trees overhanging the house, I would consider leaving for sure rather than be trapped for days with potentially no help. I'm not joking or being dramatic here, it's awful being in an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS through 48 has a more consolidated southern stream PV max and a better looking northern stream. My guess is it will be a tad NW and a little stronger as it passes through the plains and into the OV. That's what it looks like at the surface through 60hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know some think this is bunk but i strongly believe that the quicker the NAO/AO rise the better the odds are that this comes further nw. Keep in mind of how they ( especially the AO ) relate to that PV/Northern stream. interesting point Harry hope you are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS through 48 has a more consolidated southern stream PV max and a better looking northern stream. My guess is it will be a tad NW and a little stronger as it passes through the plains and into the OV. Neutral going negative already over NM/TX border at 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS will be farther NW then 12z easily. Already a decent bit NW at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What a dramatic difference between the NAM and GFS conccerning the WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah after 66 hours the northern stream difference is more Euro like--this is definitely going NW from 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DGEX looks crazy. I can't imagine what that UK run that was sub 980 mb would be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Absolutely not dramatic. I witnessed some life threatening situations in western KY during the Jan 2009 ice storm. I saw giant trees on top of houses, trapping residents. Fire trucks and rescue could not get to the homes because the ice was so bad. People were stranded. If you have trees overhanging the house, I would consider leaving for sure rather than be trapped for days with potentially no help. I'm not joking or being dramatic here, it's awful being in an ice storm. I have been in many as well but the odds of that happening are slim that is worst case scenario. People just get hyped when there is big storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM seems to be bullish on the WAA. I don't see the GFS/EURO etc showing this type of qpf for the waa. Any reason on why this is? Would the NAM be able to show it better since it's more of a hi-res model in a way? In the short range, the NAM can (and usually does) a better job at picking out these scenarios. Note that past 36-48 hours, it's not worth speculating most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArmyGreens Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For those of you that have been through a major ice storm...what would you recommend as far as prep? Was looking at generators but not quite sure how big of one I would need for a family of 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 PV is substantially further north 50-75 miles but with much better northern stream interaction to me it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Neutral going negative already over NM/TX border at 66. Definitely looks better aloft compared to the 12Z. Interested if it catches on to the rapid deepening later on like the NAM--probably not yet but the small difference through 72 will yield bigger differences down the road. It does seem the SREF/NAM guidance definitely has the upper hand here based on the potential for feedbacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sub 1000mb SLP centered near EVV on the 18z GFS. Came a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 CAUTION I would like to caution the good people of this board about using 850 mb temps as the mixing demarcation line with this storm. The warm nose on BUFKIT CLEARLY does not match up to that level for most places. Use your soundings. Just because you're at or just below 0C at 850 doesn't mean it's at or below freezing through the rest of the sounding. It could be +2 or +3 in a layer above or (in the case of this storm) below that. /caution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For those of you that have been through a major ice storm...what would you recommend as far as prep? Was looking at generators but not quite sure how big of one I would need for a family of 6. depends on if you want tv internet and all that stuff lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For those of you that have been through a major ice storm...what would you recommend as far as prep? Was looking at generators but not quite sure how big of one I would need for a family of 6. Should probably take this to another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yup, like I said before, it's catching up to the EURO. Sure looks like it anyways. Hopefully by 0z tommorow night we get a better handle on what's gonna happen but small shifts like these will probably happen for the next 48-60 hours, possiblly even longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Epic 18z GFS. Epic. I'd probably want the H7 low a little further SE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So NAM and GFS essentially flip flop with each other. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have to go change my shorts.. BRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For those of you that have been through a major ice storm...what would you recommend as far as prep? Was looking at generators but not quite sure how big of one I would need for a family of 6. Buy 2 and when the storm his and they sell out, sell the extra at a premium and pay nothing for yours. Really something around 3000 to 4000 watts is fine for most homes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z gfs has 2 inches of qpf for stl all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So NAM and GFS essentially flip flop with each other. Interesting... I think the NAM had one of its "toss it in the bin" runs in terms of the overall track since the northern stream interactions it has seem suspect. 18Z GFS is probably the one to take here--NAM just shows the potential for extreme deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Anyone have a link to BUFKIT soundings? Specifically I am looking for MIE. It looks like we are going to be right on the line between epic snow and major ice. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 PV looks to extend a lobe and try to get involved at 90 thats what we need up here, either its gets involved or it gets the heck further NE out of the picture. none of this half-ass in the middle, cant decide wishy washy stuff.... EDIT just saw 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Even with gas, you still need electricity for the fan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Definitely looks better aloft compared to the 12Z. Interested if it catches on to the rapid deepening later on like the NAM--probably not yet but the small difference through 72 will yield bigger differences down the road. It does seem the SREF/NAM guidance definitely has the upper hand here based on the potential for feedbacks. Doesn't look like, keeps it around 995 into the eastern Lakes area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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