B-Rent Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ive been there done that. Dec 2004 was a devastating ice storm, this one looks like it could be worse. So why in God's name would you wish for it?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?! :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I liked it better when there was just an Ohio thread. well Ohio posters arent posting there much for some reason, so i am over here for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WOOW 18Z NAM SHOWING A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE EVEN THE MAIN EVENT Those are some killer WAA snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not sure how MKE can have High Confidence in anything let alone the long range and storm. was just going to post this. WOW going with 4-8 WAA snows on Monday and then this PROBLEM IS THAT THE CONSISTENT AND OFTEN SUPERIOR NORTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF PROVIDES STORM TOTAL LIQUIDS ON THE ORDER OF 2" OVER NORTHEAST IL AND 1.5" IN KENOSHA AREA. EVEN NOT COUNTING THE FIRST SNOW EVENT MONDAY...1.2" IN KENOSHA WITH A 15:1 RATIO IS 18 INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -16C AND A LAKE TEMPERATURE AROUND 3C...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THIS STORM. PUT ON TOP OF THIS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OR BLIZZARD FOR THE LAKE SHORE. IMPACTS WOULD BE ENHANCED BY THE WIND...COLD TEMPERATURES AND INEFFECTIVE SALT...AND THE LONG DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT DURING THE WORK WEEK. SNOW REMOVAL EFFORTS MAY BE ONGOING NEARLY CONTINUOUSLY FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF AND RATHER CONSERVATIVE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 15:1 TO 18:1 RANGE YIELD STORM TOTALS IN KENOSHA AREA ON THE ORDER OF 2 FEET BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So why in God's name would you wish for it?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?! :axe: Im wishing for snow lol.. That means I need a se trend, which risks getting an Ice storm. Not wishing it, but it would look amazing with all the trees covered in 2" of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Picking at tiny details here--but through 18 hours on the 18Z GFS the Pacific cyclone is just a tad farther E. That has big implications later if the GFS were to take on a more negative tilt early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Im wishing for snow lol.. That means I need a se trend, which risks getting an Ice storm. Not wishing it, but it would look amazing with all the trees covered in 2" of ice. Yep, all those trees on the ground looking like firewood would look good with 2" of ice caked on them. Dilly, I love ya, man, but you just don't understand how bad that much freezing rain would be for our community. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So why in God's name would you wish for it?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?! :axe: Probably because plain rain is so boring. I would much rather have a devastating ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol mke office. 6-10 for Sheboygan Sunday Night, followed by 4-8 for the WAA and then if the storm can track farther NW, more snow on Tuesday? That would be insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yep, all those trees on the ground looking like firewood would look good with 2" of ice caked on them. Dilly, I love ya, man, but you just don't understand how bad that much freezing rain would be for our community. at least youre in the city.. I live in a town of 700 people lol.. Trees all around me lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol mke office. 6-10 for Sheboygan Sunday Night, followed by 4-8 for the WAA and then if the storm can track farther NW, more snow on Tuesday? That would be insane. This is epic and typical MKE lulz, knew they would weenie out.. This is just foolish INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MILWAUKEE 344 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 TONIGHT CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. SUNDAY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. SUNDAY NIGHT CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 50 PERCENT. MONDAY LIGHT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. MONDAY NIGHT LIGHT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 18. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. TUESDAY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY. BRISK. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT PERIODS OF SNOW. BRISK. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. LOWS AROUND 17. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY SNOW LIKELY. BRISK. MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Probably because plain rain is so boring. I would much rather have a devastating ice storm. In Duluth? On those roads that would be an epic disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Perhaps a bit OT...but it's currently 75F in Tulsa, OK and 69F in Wichita, KS. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 no question Torchartie is running the MKE office...surprised we don't see a projected 65 degree temp. after the mega blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 In Duluth? On those roads that would be an epic disaster. I have been through it. It is a mess but I don't mind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ahh....ice storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WOOW 18Z NAM SHOWING A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE EVEN THE MAIN EVENT Wow...virtually CENTERED over my house. That is awesome. Hope it verifies IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Those wishing for an ice storm don't own a home surrounded by large mature trees (and a roof full of amateur radio antennas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ...QUIET ALBEIT COLDER CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW AND INTO MONDAY AS LARGEARCTIC HIGH PLUNGES INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...WITHRIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.AS COLDER AIR SETS UP LOOKS LIKE OVERRUNNING SITUATION DEVELOPSMONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH A QUICK COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW.NAM IS FASTER THAN GFS OR ECMWF AND MOVES SNOW IN MONDAY AFTERNOON .BUT SINCE NAM IS OUTLIER WILL KEEP MONDAY DRY.MID WEEK LOOKS UGLY. MODELS BOTH DEVELOP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVERTEXAS ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVE IT ACROSS OHIO DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. EXACT TIMING AND TRACK STILL IN DOUBT. FOR NOW ECMWF IS FASTER AND TRACKS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO...WHILE GFS A LITTLE SLOWER AND TRACKS LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL OHIO. EITHER WAY WILL SEE SOME HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH AT LEAST ACHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE...NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AND NW PA LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS STRONG AS THE HIGH GFS SOLUTION SEEMS MORE REASONABLE...AT LEAST FOR NOW. That is part of the Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Cleveland. Also, the forecast for Findlay... TUESDAY...CLOUDY. SNOW LIKELY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW DEVELOPING. WINDY WITH LOWS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT.. WEDNESDAY...SNOW. WINDY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. We could get nailed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DGEX at 90. Look at those 6 hour amounts in N OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Those wishing for an ice storm don't own a home surrounded by large mature trees. No joke. Better take some action if you see that bad boy headed your way. I'd probably leave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Perhaps a bit OT...but it's currently 75F in Tulsa, OK and 69F in Wichita, KS. Wow. That's not OT, since such a warmup often foretells a major storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'll never forget the January 1994 ice storm back when I was living in Philadelphia, PA. We had a terrible ice storm followed by temperatures that tanked below zero. We were shut down for days. That was when weather stopped being fun for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 18z NAM has 55 kt winds at 900 mb over LAF at 84 hours, and it looks like it could mix down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS through 48 has a more consolidated southern stream PV max and a better looking northern stream. My guess is it will be a tad NW and a little stronger as it passes through the plains and into the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 No joke. Better take some action if you see that bad boy headed your way. I'd probably leave. A little dramatic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 353 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ARZ001-002-010-011-OKZ054>070-301100- /O.NEW.KTSA.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110202T1300Z/ BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA- CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE- OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE- 353 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES... * IN OKLAHOMA...WASHINGTON...WAGONER...OTTAWA...PAWNEE... DELAWARE...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CRAIG...NOWATA...CREEK... OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...MUSKOGEE...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES AND OSAGE. IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...WASHINGTON...CARROLL AND MADISON. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WILL CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS...YET NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS POTENTIAL STORM. * SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS FROM 4 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ADDITIONALLY...ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER ICING EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. IMPACTS... * ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS IN THE WATCH AREA...MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE. * EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM SYSTEM. ANY PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES WOULD QUICKLY ESCALATE INTO A SHELTERING RESPONSE. DEFINITION... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS HEAVY SNOW OR A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF ICE OR SLEET IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * CONSIDER CHANGING TRAVEL PLANS. MAKE SURE YOU HAVE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF FOOD...WATER AND THE NECESSARY MEDICATION TO LAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WINTER STORM. * STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION CONCERNING THIS WEATHER EVENT. ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT: WEATHER.GOV/TULSA. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM seems to be bullish on the WAA. I don't see the GFS/EURO etc showing this type of qpf for the waa. Any reason on why this is? Would the NAM be able to show it better since it's more of a hi-res model in a way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs looks very solid through 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DGEX at 90. Look at those 6 hour amounts in N OH. monster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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