Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Every single member of its ensembles is further NW. You rarely see that with the GGEM. disregard my ignorance. I did not know the GGEM was the Canadian model as I already knew to throw it out based on board observations. Learn something everyday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I can't like you for 6 hrs NAM.. That shift it was I get for saying I liked the NAM for this storm.. lol. Hopefully just a blip.. WAA snows look nice but who knows how that sets up. Gawd I just want like 6" or so somehow so we can take the snowmobiles out and not have to go to the chiro the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC agrees with the Euro/UKMET: 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE NEW ECMWF AND FINAL PREFERENCES ...UPPER TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD... PREFERENCE: MIDWAY BETWEEN THE UKMET/ECMWF THE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA... WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THE DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH... AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH...WHILE THE UKMET/ECMWF INITIALIZE THE BEST. THESE ERRORS APPEAR TO CONTRIBUTE TO GROWING DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE NAM MOVING TOWARD THE DEEP EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE AS THE LOW BEGINS TO CUTOFF OVER MONTANA WHILE THE GFS MOVES PROGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE FAST EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE. MEANWHILE...THE NEW ECMWF AND UKMET APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING TOWARD EACH OTHER...AND GIVEN COMPARABLE INITIALIZATIONS...ALONG WITH THEIR RELATIVE POSITIONS WITHIN THE SOLUTION ENVELOPE WHICH WHEN AVERAGED REPRESENT THE CONSENSUS...THE RECOMMENDATION IS FOR A SOLUTION ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE UKMET/ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Green Bay... Not sure why I'm posting it.. Guess becasue of LES potential LONG TERM SUNDAY NIGHT THRU NEXT SATURDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL MON NIGHT/TUESDAY...THEN TRACK OF MAJOR STORM SYSTEM MID-WEEK. FIRST CONCERN WILL BE DEALING WITH SNOW CHANCES/AMOUNTS FROM MONDAY THRU TUESDAY. BAROCLINC ZONE WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...AS A UPPER TROF DIGS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE IN THE RRQ OF A DEPARTING JET ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...THEN IN THE LFQ OF A JET NOSING IN FROM PLAINS. THIS WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE LIFT...AND ISENTROPIC LIFT AND WARM AIR ADVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL CREATE A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT SNOW. VERY DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH REGION SETS UP ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY AS WELL...POSSIBLY ENHANCING SNOW RATIOS. ONE NEGATIVE WILL BE THE DRY AIR CAMPED OUT OVER ONTARIO WHICH WILL TRY TO FEED INTO THE AREA ON THE NE WIND. THINK FAR NE WI WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS THE MOST...SO WILL KEEP POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS LOWER THAN THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL BUMP UP POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS ALL THE INGREDIENTS COME TOGETHER HERE. THIS WILL BE A PROLONGED LIGHT SNOW EVENT...WITH THE ONLY CHANCE FOR HEAVIER SNOW CONFINED TO THE LAKESHORE WITH LAKE BAND. SPEAKING OF LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL...SETUP IS LOOKING FAVORABLE FOR A PROLONGED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE MONDAY AFTERNOON THRU TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS START OFF OUT OF THE ENE/E MONDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NOT A FAVORABLE FETCH...BUT WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING...PRODUCING A LONGER FETCH AND MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A LAKE BAND TO SETUP. LAKE TEMPS ARE HOVERING AROUND 2-4C ACROSS MID-LAKE...COMBINED WITH 850MB TEMPS GENERALLY BETWEEN -14C AND -16C...WILL CREATE DELTA T/S IN THE 15-20 RANGE. AREA AT MOST RISK WILL BE KEWAUNEE AND MANITOWOC COUNTIES...WHEN THE NE WIND SETS UP. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO...BUT WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...BUT AN ADVISORY TYPE EVENT IS LIKELY STARTING MONDAY. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD BECOME A PROBLEM AS NE WINDS RAMP UP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKESHORE. WHILE LAKE EFFECT CONCERNS ARE ONGOING...THE MAIN SYSTEM WILL EJECT OUT OF THE PLAINS TUESDAY...AND WORK INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL SOUTH OF THE CWA...HOWEVER ANY JOG TO THE NORTH WILL CAUSE THE HEAVY SNOW BAND TO SHIFT INTO NE WI. SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON WITH NEW MODEL RUNS AND THIS SYSTEM GETS BETTER SAMPLED BY THE RAOB NETWORK. FOR NOW WILL KEEP 30/40 POPS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WI...WITH HIGHER POPS NEAR THE LAKESHORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yeah agreed--the huge shift is due to the northern stream tracking E faster--and it looks suspect on the NAM. I would tend to throw it out--but the southern stream PV max is more realistic. This storm is amazing either way we look at it. I know some think this is bunk but i strongly believe that the quicker the NAO/AO rise the better the odds are that this comes further nw. Keep in mind of how they ( especially the AO ) relate to that PV/Northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z NAM looks wild, euro and ukmet say foot of snow here so that is cool. The SE trend has continued today so far, look how far SE the vort max is on the 18z nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, 18Z NAM steps towards the GFS here in CMH with 1.29" of nothing but freezing rain. I'm genuinely scared of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, 18Z NAM steps towards the GFS here in CMH with 1.29" of nothing but freezing rain. I'm genuinely scared of this. at least it went SE.. What us Oh guys want lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am actually jealous - I wish we would get snow in PHX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think the models are underdoing this still... expect thunderstorms with snow and ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 La Crosse and just some WAA talk. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 235 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 SHORT TERM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS IS ON A SNOW EVENT TO START UP AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION LIKELY. ON MONDAY...THE 12Z GFS/NAM POINT TO AN ELONGATED PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...WITH SOME HINTS THAT BITS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WOULD SPIN OUT OF A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...TO ACROSS IA BY MONDAY EVENING. OVERALL...THE SHORTWAVE FORCING LOOKS RELATIVELY MEAGER FOR THE LOCAL AREA IN THIS TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...A BIT FARTHER A LOFT...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS THE REGION BY 00Z TUE. THIS WOULD ENHANCE ANY AVAILABLE LIFT...AND THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE LIFT... THERMODYNAMICALLY. LOOKING AT THE 850-700 MB LAYER A BROAD WEST-EAST REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SETS UP ACROSS SOUTHERN MN/IA INTO WI AND ILL FROM 06Z MON-00Z TUE. A SIMILAR SWATH OF LONG LIVED ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON THE 280-295 K SFCS IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE SAME LOCATION/TIME FRAME. THE FORCING ISN/T OVERLY STRONG...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PCPN WITH DEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE. WEST-EAST RUNNING X-SECTION SHOWS AN INCREASING SATURATED ATMOSPHERE BY 06Z MON...HOLDING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUES. AMPLE FOR SNOW PRODUCTION...AND A LONG-LIVED SNOW EVENT LOOKS LIKELY FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THE THERMAL PROFILE IN THE VERTICAL. 12Z BUFKIT GFS AND NAM SOUNDINGS DURING THIS SNOW EVENT SIT SQUARELY IN THE FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE REGION OF -12 TO -18 FROM NEAR THE SFC TO AS MUCH AS 12 KFT. AN INCREDIBLY DEEP LAYER FOR PRODUCING DENDRITES...WHICH LEAD TO GREATER ACCUMULATIONS. WINDS THROUGH 5 KFT DO INCREASE FOR THIS SAME PERIOD THOUGH...WHICH COULD SERVE TO BREAK APART LARGER FLAKES...AND PERHAPS LIMIT THE AGGREGATION POTENTIAL. IF THE FORCING WAS STRONGER...ESPECIALLY IF THERE WAS AN INDICATION OF STRONG FRONTOGENETIC BANDING...HEAVY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS COULD BE COUNTED ON. HOWEVER...THAT ISN/T THE CASE...AT THE MOMENT. STILL...SEVERAL INCHES OVER 24-30 HOURS LOOKS REASONABLE...WITH COBB OUTPUT OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. SOME 8 INCH AMOUNTS APPEAR POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST MN/NORTHEAST IA...ALTHOUGH MORE IN THE 30 HOUR PERIOD. THIS WOULD PUT IT OUTSIDE OF WARNING CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH SOME CONSIDERATION IS GIVEN TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WATCH FOR THESE AREAS. MORE LIKELY...SEE THE NEED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOMETHING AROUND THE 06Z MON - 12Z TUES TIME FRAME. WILL GIVE IT ONE...TWO MORE SHIFTS TO REFINE THE SCIENCE AND MODEL SOLUTIONS... BUT SOME SORT OF HEADLINE DOES LOOK PROBABLE WITH THIS SNOW EVENT. LIGHT SNOW COULD LINGER ON TUESDAY...BUT BELIEVE THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE FROM OVERNIGHT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. LONG TERM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO SWING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY ON WED. GOOD SURGE OF MOISTURE AHEAD AND INTO THE SYSTEM...AND THE GFS/EC HAS THIS SYSTEM PACKING A PRETTY GOOD PUNCH. LOCALLY...THE CONCERN IS HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL TRACK...AND WILL IT HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE LOCAL AREA. TRENDS WOULD KEEP THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW ACROSS MO/IA/ILL. THE EC IS THE FARTHER NORTH OF THE TWO MODELS...AND THUS SHOWS A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATIONS...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHWEST WI. WILL LIKELY HOLD WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 at least it went SE.. What us Oh guys want lol. Has a LONG way to go SE to get us out of this ice storm debacle. The easier way would be back NW with the Euro and just get plain rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Has a LONG way to go SE to get us out of this ice storm debacle. The easier way would be back NW with the Euro and just get plain rain! Ice or snow now. I already got prepared for the ice. Done made arragements etc.. So Id rather have ice than plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 from MPX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 328 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ...LONG DURATION SNOWFALL EXPECTED SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FROM WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA... .A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS IN WEST CENTRAL TO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. BETWEEN 6 AND 8 INCHES OF SNOW COULD FALL IN LOCATIONS GENERALLY NEAR OR SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM MORRIS...TO WILLMAR...TO FARIBAULT OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. A WINTER SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SNOW INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA SUNDAY EVENING. STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MONDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Norman AFD is some good porn. COLD SFC HIGH HAS BUILT NICELY OVER CANADA AND WILL PROVIDE THE COLD AIR THROUGH MONDAY TO SET UP A POTENTIAL MAJOR MESS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WINTER STORM WATCH IS INEVITIBLE BUT WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW DUE TO THE WORST OF THE EVENT LIKELY UNFOLDING IN PERIODS 5/6. STILL MANY VARIABLES AND UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND AMOUNTS - ANOTHER REASON WE ARE HOLDING OFF ON HEADLINES FOR THE TIME BEING. IT LOOKS LIKE A TRANSITION FROM RA/DZ TO ICE TO SNOW WILL BE RATHER SWIFT AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. LARGE-SCALE PATTERN FAVORS HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA BUT TRACK OF UPPER SYSTEM IS UNCERTAIN AND THEREFORE SO IS THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS. STRONG WINDS LEADING TO BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW AND POSSIBLY BLIZZARD OR NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SOME AREAS BY TUESDAY... AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS -10 TO -20 BY WED MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow, you would rather have a big, large, devestating ice storm over plain rain? Seriously? MKE going with 3-6 here for the WAA snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow, you would rather have a big, large, devestating ice storm over plain rain? Seriously? MKE going with 3-6 here for the WAA snows. at this point, yes. I will take my chances. If it is ice so be it, but I want it to come SE. That's the risk ya take here if you want snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow, you would rather have a big, large, devestating ice storm over plain rain? Seriously? MKE going with 3-6 here for the WAA snows. If i had no power lines/power poles so close to my house i wouldn't mind seing such a Ice storm as well. Thus i would take it over the rain IF that were the case. As IS...NO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macintosh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO 257 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027- 034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-301015- GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL- MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL- CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX MO- LEWIS MO-SHELBY MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-RALLS MO-PIKE MO-BOONE MO- AUDRAIN MO-MONITEAU MO-COLE MO-OSAGE MO-CALLAWAY MO-MONTGOMERY MO- LINCOLN MO-GASCONADE MO-WARREN MO-ST. CHARLES MO-FRANKLIN MO- ST. LOUIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-JEFFERSON MO-CRAWFORD MO- WASHINGTON MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE MO-IRON MO- MADISON MO-REYNOLDS MO- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LITCHFIELD...VANDALIA...SALEM... CHESTER...QUINCY...EDWARDSVILLE...BELLEVILLE...HANNIBAL... BOWLING GREEN...COLUMBIA...MEXICO...JEFFERSON CITY...ST CHARLES... UNION...ST LOUIS...FARMINGTON 257 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... THE LATEST RUNS OF THE COMPUTER MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL LIKELY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING ICE AND SNOW TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE COMPUTER MODELS ON THE EXACT STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS FREEZING RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW AND HOW MUCH OF EACH. AT THIS TIME...LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI ON SUNDAY NIGHT WELL AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME STEADY AND HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL LIKELY SEE ALL SNOW...WHILE LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL TEND TO SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL RESULT IN A RAPID ACCUMULATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND ICE. PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT AND TAPER TO FLURRIES ON WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. IN ADDITION...BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH AND WHAT TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AT ANY GIVEN LOCATION. HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKELY THAT A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINTER STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR THIS STORM LATER TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST FORECAST. $$ BRITT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If i had no power lines/power poles so close to my house i wouldn't mind seing such a Ice storm as well. Thus i would take it over the rain IF that were the case. As IS...NO. What if your home is all electric like mine...no gas! No thanks, I'll take the plain rain over that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow, you would rather have a big, large, devestating ice storm over plain rain? Seriously? at this point, yes. I will take my chances. If it is ice so be it, but I want it to come SE. That's the risk ya take here if you want snow lol I liked it better when there was just an Ohio thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ARX hit the potential for the farther northwest areas (wherever they may end up being in this storm). Just a huge DGZ depicted on the 12z Bufkit soundings (400+ mb deep!). Even the lighter QPF on the far southeast solutions yield several inches of snow, because of the extreme ratios this DGZ would tend to produce. Another factor to why the northwest cut off to snow accumulations should not be as great with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ARX hit the potential for the farther northwest areas (wherever they may end up being in this storm). Just a huge DGZ depicted on the 12z Bufkit soundings (400+ mb deep!). Even the lighter QPF on the far southeast solutions yield several inches of snow, because of the extreme ratios this DGZ would tend to produce. Another factor to why the northwest cut off to snow accumulations should not be as great with this storm. Good to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 An ice storm would destroy the community, be bad for the economy etc. I've been through .35-.4 inch of ice or so, and it shut the city down for a few days. I couldn't imagine over 2 inches of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 An ice storm would destroy the community, be bad for the economy etc. I've been through .35-.4 inch of ice or so, and it shut the city down for a few days. I couldn't imagine over 2 inches of ice. Ive been there done that. Dec 2004 was a devastating ice storm, this one looks like it could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Wow, you would rather have a big, large, devestating ice storm over plain rain? Seriously? MKE going with 3-6 here for the WAA snows. Not sure how MKE can have High Confidence in anything let alone the long range and storm. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 336 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011 SHORT TERM TONIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM A SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER SOUTHEAST SD WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN IA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND WEAKEN AS IT GETS TO NORTHERN IL TONIGHT. A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN MN TO NORTHEAST IOWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FLURRIES JUST NORTH OF THIS SNOW SWATH...SO KEPT FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTY WARNING AREA /CWA/ THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. RUC MODEL SNDGS SUPPORT FREEZING DRIZZLE SOUTHWEST OF MSN THIS AFTERNOON. AS COLDER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL GOES AWAY FOR THE EVENING HOURS. BY THE EVENING...THINKING THAT THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL CLIP THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS EVENING AND BE OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH...WITH ANOTHER EVENT STRUGGLING TO MEASURE QPF WISE. ORIGINALLY IT LOOKED LIKE A DECENT LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SHEBOYGAN THIS AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO MKE. LAKE TEMPS ARE AROUND 36 TO 38 DEGREES /2-4C/...AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR SBM ARE AROUND -10C...SO MARGINAL DELTA-T FOR LAKE EFFECT...BUT WIND DIRECTION REMAINS THE PROBLEM. BASED ON GREEN BAY RADAR AND SURFACE OBS TO THE NORTH...THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS NOT DEVELOPING AND WINDS ARE GENERALLY NORTHWEST ALONG THE LAKESHORE. THEREFORE...BACKED OF SIGNIFICANTLY ON LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES NEAR THE LAKE...KEEPING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE LAKE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. DEPENDING ON IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS LATER THIS EVENING...WE MAY NEED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF SNOW OR FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. ESPECIALLY IF WINDS ONLY VEER NORTH INSTEAD OF GOING NORTHEAST. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION...TEMPS IN THE NORTHERN CWA MAY DIP INTO THE MID TO LOWER TEENS. HOWEVER...THE DENSE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER THAN EXPECTED. SUNDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM WINDS WILL FINALLY SWITCH TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND 18Z...SO THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A N-S ORIENTED MID LAKE BAND THAT COULD SWING WESTWARD AND CLIP SOUTHEAST WI IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...RH PLOTS SHOW A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION...SO THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE WESTERN CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL BE THE 20S. SUNDAY NIGHT-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH POLAR RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES ASSOCIATED WITH CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN POLAR VORTEX IN EASTERN CANADA AND DIGGING TROUGH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ROUGHLY -13 TO -15C IN THE SHEBOYGAN AREA...WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. AN INVERTED LAKE TROUGH IS SHOWN TO DEVELOP...AND JUST ABOUT EVERY MODEL DEVELOPS A DECENT AMOUNT OF LAKE EFFECT LATE AT NIGHT AND MOVES IT ON SHORE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE AND ESPECIALLY THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR A PRIMARY BAND ALONG A STRONGER CONVERGENCE ZONE. THERE WAS CONSIDERATION FOR ISSUING A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR THE SHEBOYGAN AND OZAUKEE AREA STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING INTO MONDAY...GIVEN THREAT OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AT KSBM ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH DELTA TS AROUND 18 AND EVEN UP TO 20 J/KG OF SBCAPE. MONDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH PROLONGED SNOW EVENT EXPECTED WITH NICE COUPLED JET CIRCULATION AT 250 MB AS 120 KNOT JET STREAM PULLS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKES INTO ONTARIO AND ANOTHER 110 KNOT JET MOVES ACROSS KANSAS. SWATH OF SNOW ALONG 522 DM THICKNESS SUGGESTS HIGH RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 17:1 TO 20:1 AND MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR 0.25 TO 0.40" OF LIQUID OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD. 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MORE THAN A 12 HOUR PERIOD SUGGESTS THAT A HIGH END SNOW ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED. AGAIN...LOTS OF COORDINATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST DISCUSSING THE POSSIBLE NEED FOR A WINTER STORM WATCH TO COVER THIS BEFORE THE PRIMARY SYSTEM COMES OUT LATER. GIVEN THAT OUR CRITERIA IS 6 INCHES IN 12 HOURS OR 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS...IT IS A CLOSE CALL. THIS IS ALSO A 4TH OR 5TH PERIOD WATCH SO IT WAS DECIDED THAT AN SPS AND HIGHLIGHTS VIA WEATHER BRIEFING/TOP NEWS ON THE WEB WOULD BE A GOOD COMPROMISE. COMPLICATING THIS IS THE LAKE ENHANCEMENT THAT COULD CERTAINLY ADD A COUPLE MORE INCHES EVEN BEFORE TUESDAY. AGAIN...THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED ON THE MID SHIFT TONIGHT. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY-FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH STRONG UPPER LOW MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AT TIME IS THE LOOMING BIG STORM FOR THIS PERIOD. ECMWF HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN TAKING THIS STORM ON A FAVORABLE TRACK FROM EAST TX/AR INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN INDIANA. GFS IS CONSISTENTLY SOUTH...WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLES...CANADIAN...AND NAM IN THE MIDDLE. OFT-IGNORED DGEX IS ALSO SIMILAR TO ECMWF. AN INTERESTING TREND THAT CONTINUES ON ALL OF THE MODEL IS THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE 500 MB CONFLUENT ZONE...WHICH OFTEN MARKS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW EVENT. IT CONTINUES TO PULL NORTH WITH EACH RUN...SHOWING MORE AND MORE EFFECTS OF THE BACKING OFF OF THE DEEP VORTEX OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE INCREASED RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST. EVEN THE SOUTHERN TRACK OF THE GFS BRINGS HALF AN INCH OF LIQUID TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA...GOOD ENOUGH FOR A LOW END WINTER STORM EVENT. PROBLEM IS THAT THE CONSISTENT AND OFTEN SUPERIOR NORTHERN TRACK OF THE ECMWF PROVIDES STORM TOTAL LIQUIDS ON THE ORDER OF 2" OVER NORTHEAST IL AND 1.5" IN KENOSHA AREA. EVEN NOT COUNTING THE FIRST SNOW EVENT MONDAY...1.2" IN KENOSHA WITH A 15:1 RATIO IS 18 INCHES OF SNOW. GIVEN 850 MB TEMPS OF -13 TO -16C AND A LAKE TEMPERATURE AROUND 3C...WE ARE TALKING ABOUT VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND SIGNIFICANT LAKE ENHANCEMENT FOR THIS STORM. PUT ON TOP OF THIS THE POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS OFF THE LAKE AND TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S...THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OR BLIZZARD FOR THE LAKE SHORE. IMPACTS WOULD BE ENHANCED BY THE WIND...COLD TEMPERATURES AND INEFFECTIVE SALT...AND THE LONG DURATION OF THE SNOW EVENT DURING THE WORK WEEK. SNOW REMOVAL EFFORTS MAY BE ONGOING NEARLY CONTINUOUSLY FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS. A CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF AND RATHER CONSERVATIVE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 15:1 TO 18:1 RANGE YIELD STORM TOTALS IN KENOSHA AREA ON THE ORDER OF 2 FEET BETWEEN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY. STAY TUNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What if your home is all electric like mine...no gas! No thanks, I'll take the plain rain over that! I can understand that and would agree in that situation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WOOW 18Z NAM SHOWING A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE EVEN THE MAIN EVENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z GFS coming in at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 fwiw: 18z dgex has 988 L in n KY at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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