Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM drops the low from 998 to 992 in 3 hours from hr 81 to 84. A jet coupling like this will do that. As CSnavywx said--the jet config is out of this world. Positive feedback cyclogenesis at its best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I will have to take a look at that--these frontogenesis events can be tricky under certain circumstances--and the overall height field configuration is key. That said--frontal banding will likely contribute to heavier bands--but perhaps not as wet over a large area like the NAM has. Disregard the QPF amounts--but the fluff will still add up rather fast in stronger bursts of frontogenesis. But let me look later and I will have a better answer--right now I am interested in what the NAM does farther S on this run. I see HPC updated snow probs has low % 8" amounts into w MN on day2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I blame Powerball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I see HPC updated snow probs has low % 8" amounts into w MN on day2... and their afternoon update they said what i posted above. they arent making much sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I blame Powerball. Get the rope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WAA snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 IWX: EVEN A VERY CONSERVATIVE APPROACH WITH THESE TOTALS WILL YIELD A SIGNIFICANT SNOW BAND OF UPWARDS OF A FOOT WITHIN HEAVIEST AXIS. THE EXTREME END COULD YIELD UPWARDS OF 20 INCHES...A RARE EVENT OUTSIDE OF LAKE EFFECT FOR OUR AREA. COMPLICATING THE HEAVY SNOW THREAT WILL BE AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN 996MB LOW PRESSURE AND 1046MB SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL CREATE SURFACE WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THESE WINDS COUPLED WITH THE DRIER SNOW WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING WITH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE...EVEN WITH LESS SNOW AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I blame Powerball. which model has been the most consistent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I blame Powerball. Yep, it better go back west lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I blame Powerball. LOL! That was the kiss of death! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=01&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=18&fhour=84¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Note the nearly 2 feet of snow for eastern Indiana/western Ohio. Insane to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 I blame Powerball. I blame Bush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Monstrous. Just monstrous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hopefully this is a glitch run and the northern stream wont be that far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Boom. ORD/MKE folks would probably have preferred the 12z run, but that looks pretty mouthwatering from an imby perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's still a nice run for the Chicago-Detroit corridor (we're not even half way through the storm at 84hr). And this is an 18z run after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I blame Bush. dude...you should be seriously concerned. Remember the scenes in Frankenstein where they hunted for him with torches...that could be you come Thursday..They maybe joking now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's still a nice run for the Chicago-Detroit corridor (we're not even half way through the storm at 84hr). And this is an 18z run after all. you better pray to whoever you pray to that this comes back west some lol chicago is on the western fringe of the good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Shift in this run is largely due to the placement and changes in evolution of the northern stream system, and as a result the upper trough doesn't go negative quite as early. It IS one run, and we're still outside the NAM's good range, so take these back and forth shifts with a grain of salt. It does demonstrate how differently the meso models are handling this though. Look at the 15Z SREF members mostly northwest of the globals (except the high-res Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 least it still spits out 6-8" for me (barely) using twisterdata page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ILX SWS: http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/p.php?pid=201101292101-KILX-WWUS83-SPSILX SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL301 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-300930-KNOX-STARK-PEORIA-MARSHALL-WOODFORD-FULTON-TAZEWELL-MCLEAN-SCHUYLER-MASON-LOGAN-DE WITT-PIATT-CHAMPAIGN-VERMILION-CASS-MENARD-SCOTT-MORGAN-SANGAMON-CHRISTIAN-MACON-MOULTRIE-DOUGLAS-COLES-EDGAR-SHELBY-CUMBERLAND-CLARK-EFFINGHAM-JASPER-CRAWFORD-CLAY-RICHLAND-LAWRENCE-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GALESBURG...PEORIA...BLOOMINGTON...NORMAL...HAVANA...LINCOLN...CHAMPAIGN...URBANA...DANVILLE...JACKSONVILLE...SPRINGFIELD...TAYLORVILLE...DECATUR...CHARLESTON...MATTOON...SHELBYVILLE...EFFINGHAM...FLORA...LAWRENCEVILLE301 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011...SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRALAND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE FIRST BATCH OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON MONDAY...AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.WARM AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...ANDSNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...WITH PERIODS OFPRECIPITATION THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOCATIONS FURTHER NORTH...TOWARDGALESBURG AND PEORIA...WILL PRIMARILY RECEIVE SNOW.ON TUESDAY...AS THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARDTHE OHIO VALLEY...THE SNOW WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERCENTRAL ILLINOIS. SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS WILL SEE THE MIXTURE CONTINUEUNTIL LATE EVENING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELYFROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE SNOWDIMINISHES...WINDY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME BLOWING ANDDRIFTING SNOW AS WELL. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE LIKELYALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-72 CORRIDOR. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONOF A QUARTER INCH OR MORE IS INITIALLY LIKELY TO THE SOUTH...FOLLOWEDBY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THE EXACT LOCATIONS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THISTIME...AS SMALL CHANGES IN THE STORM TRACK CAN RESULT IN MAJORCHANGES IN THE EXPECTED PRECIPITATION TYPES.A LARGE PART OF THE MIDWEST IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY THISSTORM. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXTWEEK...YOU SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...AND CONSIDERALTERING YOUR PLANS IF POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the 18z NAM would be a lot of ice with snow on top,... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ouch..had not caught this until Lincoln,IL AFD: THE NEW 12Z CANADIAN ACTUALLY NOW HAS CHANGED TO A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...PULLING SNOW OUT OF THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA AND HITTING THE SE HALF WITH MODERATE SNOW. that's 3 different models today that have tilted back southeast I'm off to chew on some TUMS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Shift in this run is largely due to the placement and changes in evolution of the northern stream system, and as a result the upper trough doesn't go negative quite as early. It IS one run, and we're still outside the NAM's good range, so take these back and forth shifts with a grain of salt. It does demonstrate how differently the meso models are handling this though. Look at the 15Z SREF members mostly northwest of the globals (except the high-res Euro). Yeah agreed--the huge shift is due to the northern stream tracking E faster--and it looks suspect on the NAM. I would tend to throw it out--but the southern stream PV max is more realistic. This storm is amazing either way we look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 ouch..had not caught this until Lincoln,IL AFD: THE NEW 12Z CANADIAN ACTUALLY NOW HAS CHANGED TO A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...PULLING SNOW OUT OF THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA AND HITTING THE SE HALF WITH MODERATE SNOW. that's 3 different models today that have tilted back southeast I'm off to chew on some TUMS Every single member of its ensembles is further NW. You rarely see that with the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ORD/MKE folks would probably have preferred the 12z run, but that looks pretty mouthwatering from an imby perspective. True that. Alas, it's one run. Fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ouch..had not caught this until Lincoln,IL AFD: THE NEW 12Z CANADIAN ACTUALLY NOW HAS CHANGED TO A MUCH FARTHER SOUTH TRACK...PULLING SNOW OUT OF THE NW HALF OF OUR CWA AND HITTING THE SE HALF WITH MODERATE SNOW. that's 3 different models today that have tilted back southeast I'm off to chew on some TUMS Don't bother with the CMC--it is having issues with wave interaction and an odd breakdown of the southern stream wave as it ejects into the plains. It just looks weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM has over 2" qpf in much of central/southern Indiana and it's not even close to being done. Of course that's not all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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