Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Meh, just a bit slow to develop I guess. HR 57 is a pretty good hit for CHI, S. WI, IA, N. IN, S. MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is faster/further east with the northern s/w through 48. Might lead to a colder/slightly further south track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WAA doesn't look nearly as impressive as 12z at hr 54. it looks pretty close to me, gulf vectors maybe even more due south. 12z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Haha and GFS on BUFKIT. Shows like 23" for Battle Creek from Monday-Wed, and like 19" for Mt. Pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I don't know what to think of this NAM run. Just analyzing it verbatim--it is slightly more disorganized in the height field--but it has a beefcake southern stream wave overall if the entire PV max ejects into the plains. Either way will still be pretty significant in the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 New European model produces 1.62" water equiv precip--wow!! Looking more and more like this may be a doozy of a storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Baroclinic do you think that the NAM overdoing it considerable witht he WAA snows in southern MN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is coming SE...possibly a substantial shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sweetness. Granted we're comparing the 12z NAM to the 18z run, but somewhat noticeably colder in the upper levels from 0z Tuesday to 12z Tuesday (48-60 on the 18z NAM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am impressed with NCEP handlement so far, especially the NAM, but the GFS has been improving each run. They show a fairly congruement upper level feature unlike the foreign models which have crap all over the place. The GGEM lost it mind and the Euro left enough energy behind for a Star Trek Convention. I agree--the CMC looks bad. It typically has issues with certain wave patterns--and the way the shortwave just "disintegrates" in the plains looks unrealistic. The CMC also stinks with low amplitude waves across the intermountain W in fast westerly flow. It looks like it is doing similar things here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sweetness. Granted we're comparing the 12z NAM to the 18z run, but somewhat noticeably colder in the upper levels from 0z Tuesday to 12z Tuesday (48-60 on the 18z NAM). Yeah, probably not enough to entirely avoid sleet, but much better than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 wow 18z so far south with LP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 SE it is. Sub 1000 low in E. MS at hr 75. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is coming SE...possibly a substantial shift. I thought it would go S/E to a degree. Still have a discrete southern wave though so I'm sure it won't be anything like the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is coming SE...possibly a substantial shift. can't be. I thought this thing was a lock. At this rate with 3 days to go until ground zero my prediction for many on this board mentally....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM is coming SE...possibly a substantial shift. You can say that again.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Baroclinic do you think that the NAM overdoing it considerable witht he WAA snows in southern MN? I will have to take a look at that--these frontogenesis events can be tricky under certain circumstances--and the overall height field configuration is key. That said--frontal banding will likely contribute to heavier bands--but perhaps not as wet over a large area like the NAM has. Disregard the QPF amounts--but the fluff will still add up rather fast in stronger bursts of frontogenesis. But let me look later and I will have a better answer--right now I am interested in what the NAM does farther S on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I thought it would go S/E to a degree. Still have a discrete southern wave though so I'm sure it won't be anything like the GEM. Yea, the southern wave is solid, but the northwave being farther east is the issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You can say that again.......... I get missed to the west somewhat here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yea, the southern wave is solid, but the northwave being farther east is the issue. Does knock the the height field in the east down a bit. I'm hoping this run of the NAM at least ends up along the GFS/UKIE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC afternoon update. ...AFTERNOON UPDATE... NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY 4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS. EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The warm advection snow up here had better pan out because at the current rate we aren't going to get a damn thing from the main storm. I'm feeling pretty sick. The models today are really starting to shove that northern stream eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 81hrs the track is fairly similar to the GFS, but the precip shield does not extend as far NW as the GFS has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The warm advection snow up here had better pan out because at the current rate we aren't going to get a damn thing from the main storm. I'm feeling pretty sick. The models today are really starting to shove that northern stream eastward. i know how you feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Does anyone know if the Pacific recon is going to be available by the 00z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM drops the low from 998 to 992 in 3 hours from hr 81 to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Taking the NAM verbatim, someone in Eastern OK would get well over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM drops the low from 998 to 992 in 3 hours from hr 81 to 84. Where is it at 84 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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