snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 15z SREFS look to be massive. Only out to 72 but really juiced with the WAA/isentropic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is it true that freezing rain won't accumulate as fast if the rate is higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is it true that freezing rain won't accumulate as fast if the rate is higher? Yes, especially if you're flirting with freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 15z SREFS look to be massive. Only out to 72 but really juiced with the WAA/isentropic stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Preliminary thoughts on the storm. Went with a blend of the ECM and GFS. I think the Euro is too warm, so used the temps from the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes, especially if you're flirting with freezing. Okay good, that is what I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 South of I-70 I hate to say it but I'd have the ice storm survival kit ready, IE bread, milk, generators, canned goods, a manual can opener, bottled water, have the vehicles full of gas, it does NOT look good right now... I'm going with a blend of all the models on this one, I think that power outages looks likely if this is ZR, especially parts of the STL metro especially SE sides of the metro area, also other cities such as Effingham, Indy, Terre Haute, Bloomington, Mt Vernon, Once you get north of I-70 it starts to become a big snowmaker, and these numbers I just put in as an idea, but i wouldn't be shocked to see places end up with 10-15" OR more,but it's too soon to nail numbers down like that... This is the storm of the season IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 15z SREFS look to be massive. Only out to 72 but really juiced with the WAA/isentropic stuff. 15Z 72 & 84 sref slp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hi-res models should have a much better handle on the upper level features etc with this system. That's why I am leaning towards the EURO/NAM/SREF's etc more so then the GFS/GEM/UKIE. This will be a strong low, I would say sub 995 somewhere near where the EURO/NAM show. Give or take 30-35 miles on either side of that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 15Z 72 & 84 sref slp The mean at 84 looks more like the GFS but there are several members that look more like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Are there any members down in western Nebraska in here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Both of those maps look good, this rain snow line is gonna run somewhere between I70 and I80. Hopefully further south to help out my Columbus brothers.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A little early for maps, just my opinion, but have fun and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 15Z 72 & 84 sref slp Should set up a great 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 South of I-70 I hate to say it but I'd have the ice storm survival kit ready, IE bread, milk, generators, canned goods, a manual can opener, bottled water, have the vehicles full of gas, it does NOT look good right now... I'm going with a blend of all the models on this one, I think that power outages looks likely if this is ZR, especially parts of the STL metro especially SE sides of the metro area, also other cities such as Effingham, Indy, Terre Haute, Bloomington, Mt Vernon, Once you get north of I-70 it starts to become a big snowmaker, and these numbers I just put in as an idea, but i wouldn't be shocked to see places end up with 10-15" OR more,but it's too soon to nail numbers down like that... This is the storm of the season IMO. ORD from 1 inch to 1.95 inches and 3-6 inches of snow???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The mean at 84 looks more like the GFS but there are several members that look more like the NAM. unsurprisingly the ETA ones are what's knocking it down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Okay good, that is what I thought. Surface temps usually jump a couple of degrees due to the latent heat release of freezing during heavy rates. Optimum ice accretion rates occur when you are at or below 30F, above that and some of it will run-off. If you start in the low to mid 20s though... watch out. One thing that worries me in this case is the strong, deep fetch of cold, dry parcels coming from that stationary surface ridge north of the storm. This is a perfect setup for sustained heavy icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Here, let me quickly construct my IMBY Snow Map in paint.exe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 unsurprisingly the ETA ones are what's knocking it down. The ETA members in the SREF drag it down in general. It's a relatively terrible model compared to the other 3 in that suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 ORD from 1 inch to 1.95 inches and 3-6 inches of snow???? Still a bit iffy on how far NW the moisture gets. if model trends continue to show it you better believe I'll expand that to include Chicago, in fact if that continues tomorrow it'll include Chitown.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The ETA members in the SREF drag it down in general. It's a relatively terrible model compared to the other 3 in that suite. I just glanced at the amped NAM. First thought is the QPF even with convection is too high over that broad of an area. My thoughts yesterday were the non-hydro models under this setup would have an edge in intensification and deepening rate of the surface low. What do you think? I see 12Z NAM is going gangbusters and is continuing to rapidly intensify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Surface temps usually jump a couple of degrees due to the latent heat release of freezing during heavy rates. Optimum ice accretion rates occur when you are at or below 30F, above that and some of it will run-off. If you start in the low to mid 20s though... watch out. One thing that worries me in this case is the strong, deep fetch of cold, dry parcels coming from that stationary surface ridge north of the storm. This is a perfect setup for sustained heavy icing. Surface temps look to start out around 29 and warm to 31-33 per the GFS, so right on the cusp. I'm just hoping the fact that the significant precip occurs with temps near or just over 30F combined with heavy rates cuts down a bit. BUFKIT has 1.77" of ice before getting 33F for KCVG Similar setup at CMHbut more sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Jackson (Michigan's) hourly graph shows 18-19". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z NAM looks a tad cooler at 850 mb so far in IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goknights Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NAM continues to lay down impressive WAA snows across southern MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z NAM looks a tad cooler at 850 mb so far in IL/IN. Yep, the run is more or less the same, maybe even a hair stronger in the southwest by 36hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What is the iowa state COBB data link? Please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Seems like we have been tracking this storm forever. Still not even inside 84hrs yet. What scary changes will be in store by the Tuesday 12z time? I can only imagine. we're def inside 84 hours for the part that is really crucial being the handling of cyclone development once things exit the rockies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moneyman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WAA doesn't look nearly as impressive as 12z at hr 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I just glanced at the amped NAM. First thought is the QPF even with convection is too high over that broad of an area. My thoughts yesterday were the non-hydro models under this setup would have an edge in intensification and deepening rate of the surface low. What do you think? I see 12Z NAM is going gangbusters and is continuing to rapidly intensify. Basically agree with the bolded. The QPF is probably too high, but given we have a hydrostatic model that agrees with it (Euro), and that certainly brings up a few questions. The higher-res models (especially the non-hydrostatic ones) seem to be forming one camp, while the lower-res are in a somewhat different camp. The quality moisture and heat return ahead of this system (PWATs around 1.5" near the surface low), extreme temperature gradient, and negative tilt trough argue for high quality deep feedback-type cyclogenesis. Jet structure also pretty darn good. All of these factors favor the non-hydrostatic model heavily in this case. If this storm didn't have so many favorable factors going for it, it might be a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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