A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 84 hours, the 32 degree line is under NYC while the 0c line is in SNE. I assume you mean the 850 line freezing line is in SNE, because 32 F = 0 C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z Nam text soundings show the highest temp NYC sees is 30.9 through 84 hours. The bad thing is that at 84 hours, 850's go to 4.8 with the surface below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 impressive inversion on the NAM...at 84 hours 850 temps are approaching +5 while the surface is in the 20's would probably warm up rapidly though in later frames as the NAM is really amped at 5H, the low would probably cut through PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It sounds like everyone has written this off already as a major rain or ice storm.....where have you all been for the rest of the winter?? Just wondering, because if I recall correctly, we have already been through all of this MANY times before during this season. Now, I know what your all going to say "look at the models". Well I have been, all winter long....and they keep changing....daily....Its been a discussion already, about a week ago, that the models aren't handeling the northern stream properly in this nina. Also, I remember the disco posted by someone earlier today from HPC about the evolution of this storm having much to do with what happens in B.C. So you mean to tell me that the models are handeling things occuring in canada with a lot of accuracy? Ok, I feel better now. With that being said, I don't think we'll really know anything until monday. Just like the rest of the winter has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah just saw that.... let me get this straight- the first batch of precip appears to be solely WAA... the second batch is from the developing storm of phasing streams out west....correct? if so, i would love to see that 1052 hP cell drive EASt as opposed to south after 72hrs the 994 low in western tenn doesnt bode well.... To tell you the truth I don't see any phasing at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That HP can't slip east right away because of the PV and the -PNA. However, if that surface low just goes up the lakes like that, there won't be much precip as we would be dry slotted. Still think this evolves into a different look than we are seeing now, not a snowier solution, but perhaps weaker and dryer after the WAA event. Needs to cut up into MI instead of W PA in order to see that dry slot. Otherwise we are talking about 0.5" of rain easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I assume you mean the 850 line freezing line is in SNE, because 32 F = 0 C Oops I meant the freezing line is under NYC while 850's are up near SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Not so sure surface temps are going above 0 in the next frame, in fact at 87 hours 925 temps are dropping. The surface low in the midwest may just die a slow death out there since it certainly isn't plugging through the fast easterly flow over southern canada. What a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lets see if they find error in this 18z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It sounds like everyone has written this off already as a major rain or ice storm.....where have you all been for the rest of the winter?? Just wondering, because if I recall correctly, we have already been through all of this MANY times before during this season. Now, I know what your all going to say "look at the models". Well I have been, all winter long....and they keep changing....daily....Its been a discussion already, about a week ago, that the models aren't handeling the northern stream properly in this nina. Also, I remember the disco posted by someone earlier today from HPC about the evolution of this storm having much to do with what happens in B.C. So you mean to tell me that the models are handeling things occuring in canada with a lot of accuracy? Ok, I feel better now. With that being said, I don't think we'll really know anything until monday. Just like the rest of the winter has been. Unfortunately, we tend to model hug on every run while others can "see" the pattern and players on the field unfold before the models pick it up. Time will tell, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Unfortunately, we tend to model hug on every run while others can "see" the pattern and players on the field unfold before the models pick it up. Time will tell, of course. We also have s/w out over the ocean, so this likely wont be resolved before Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 925mb temps on the NAM are literally right around 0C. This is a VERY shallow layer of cold. Almost like a radiation inversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 can someone please post the latest NOGAPS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 925mb temps on the NAM are literally right around 0C. This is a VERY shallow layer of cold. Almost like a radiation inversion. Doug, it reminds me of that phenomenon back in 2008 I believe it was, when someone reported it was raining at the surface, but there was a very wet snow sticking to the treetops-- only in reverse in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nice write up by Upton .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE TRACKS TO THE N ON SUNDAY...WITH ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT TO FAR N FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. IT SHOULD ALSO BE DRY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY EVENING AS WEAK RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WARM ADVECTION SNOWS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM SW TO NE OVER ALL BUT FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE TUESDAY MORNING. THE NAM IS AN UNUSUAL OUTLIER IN HOW QUICKLY IT WASHES OUT THE DAMMING HIGH ON TUESDAY...GIVEN IN-SITU DAMMING AND MID-UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENCE OVER NORTHERN UPSTATE NY/NEW ENGLAND WHICH SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE DAMMING HIGH IN PLACE. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC-GLOBAL/SREF AND UKMET. FOR NOW USED A 75% GFS-25% ECMWF BLEND OF LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS (NOTING ECMWF OF LATE HAS BEEN TOO QUICK TO WARM THE LOW LEVELS...AND USUALLY BY TOO MUCH. AS A RESULT HAVE GONE FOR ALL SNOW TUESDAY...EXCEPT FOR A MIXING IN WITH SLEET OVER THE COASTAL OCEAN ZONES LATE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER...WHERE UPSLOPE COMES INTO PLAY. FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM... BLENDED MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH A MIX DOWN FROM 900 HPA (PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS) FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY...TOOK THE LOWER OF MAV AND MET GUIDANCE FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT (RELATIVELY CLEAR SKY CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS PLUS SNOW PACK). USED A MIX DOWN FROM 950 HPA FOR HIGHS MONDAY...AND COLDER MAV GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT...AS THEY CAPTURED THE IDEA OF EASTERN AREAS HAVING A GOOD PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING MONDAY EVENING BEFORE THE CLOUDS ROLL IN AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION SNOWS LATE THAT NIGHT. FOR HIGHS TUESDAY BLENDED MEX/MEX ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE LOW MEX ENSEMBLE MEMBER (TO REFLECT IMPACT OF SNOWPACK AND DAMMING HIGH). TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS MONDAY ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS FORECASTED FOR LOWS AND THE 20S FOR HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT COULD SEE LOWS AROUND 0 ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE CT. -- End Changed Discussion -- && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL BE IMPACTING THE TRI-STATE AREA TO START THE PERIOD...FROM TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS TIME AROUND THOUGH THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE P-TYPES WITH EVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF COASTAL AREAS GOING OVER TO RAIN. LIKE MANY OF THE SYSTEMS THIS WINTER...MULTIPLE STREAMS WILL INTERACT WITH ONE ANOTHER TO LEAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE THE REGION. IN ADDITION...THE PRIMARY LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA WILL TAKE AN INLAND TRACK WITH ANY SECONDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING LATE ENOUGH TO SPARE THE REGION AN ALL SNOW EVENT. A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE E PAC WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE WEST COAST SUN...THEN PROCEED TO DIG INTO THE DESERT SW ON MON. AN IMPULSE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET ACROSS WESTERN CANADA WILL DROP SE...PHASING WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THIS LOW WILL THEN LIFT TO THE NE ACROSS THE MS AND OH VALLEYS...TAKING A TRACK NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WED. WHILE A DEEP-LAYERED W/SW FLOW ALOFT WILL ERODE THE COLD AIR ALOFT...THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND MAGNITUDE OF THE HIGH TO THE NORTH WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH LOW- LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS IN PLACE TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT ICE STORM. PREFERENCE AT THIS TIME IS TO GO WITH COLDER GFS AND GLOBAL GEM SOLUTIONS. THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE ECMWF...SEEM TO WEAKEN THE COLD AIR DAMMING TOO QUICKLY. A STRONGLY CONFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS DURING THIS TIME WOULD SEEM TO POINT TO HIGHER PRESSURES OVER NEW ENGLAND...THUS MAINTAINING THE SOURCE OF LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR. OF COURSE...SHOULD THE LOW TRACK TREND FARTHER NORTH OF THE AREA IN SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS...THIS WOULD BE ALL FOR NOT AS MARITIME AIR WOULD SCOUR OUT THE COLD AIR. THUS...LOOKING FOR A FORECAST WHERE SNOW TRANSITIONS TO MIXED PRECIPITATION TUE NIGHT AND THEN SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. A CHANGEOVER TO ALL RAIN IS LIKELY AT THE COAST IN THE MORNING...WITH A POTENTIAL PROLONGED PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE LOW PASSES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WED NIGHT WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION ENDING AS SNOW. POLAR HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND THE STORM FOR THU AND FRI WITH UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR ACROSS THE AREA. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THOROUGH EARLY SAT. THERE IS ONE CAVEAT HERE IN THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL BYPASS THE AREA TO THE EAST FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS SPED UP WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM ITS 00Z RUN AND IS CONSIDERABLY CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN THE GFS. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY THAT CLOSES OFF OVER THE DESERT SW MID WEEK AND THE EVENTUAL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM TO THE EAST. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z Nam text soundings show the highest temp NYC sees is 30.9 through 84 hours. The bad thing is that at 84 hours, 850's go to 4.8 with the surface below freezing. that is freezing rain...would prefer the surface gets above zero...no interest in ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z Nam text soundings show the highest temp NYC sees is 30.9 through 84 hours. The bad thing is that at 84 hours, 850's go to 4.8 with the surface below freezing. for jfk....which is important for you...it gets to 33.1 at 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 LOL, sorry, have to post this, here is the DGEX 132 hour 500 mb you can imagine what the surface is going to look like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That discussion makes it sound like a juicier version of the snow to slop to rain scenario we had a few weeks ago. Changeover timings sound similar also. I had a sense of deja vu reading that discussion. By the way, to whomever wrote that, if they're reading this thread (highly unlikely!) its "all for naught" not "all for not." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 To tell you the truth I don't see any phasing at the end of the run. yeah you are right...at 84 hrs its weird...the northern stream digs southwest while the southern stream heads northeast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looking at that DGEX, I mean c'mon. It looks like it wants the whole carribean aob 0C.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Nice little storm for southern jersey on the dgex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looking at that DGEX, I mean c'mon. It looks like it wants the whole carribean aob 0C.... its for kicks before the 18z gfs comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah you are right...at 84 hrs its weird...the northern stream digs southwest while the southern stream heads northeast apart from the gfs...all the models hang back big piece of energy in the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 its for kicks before the 18z gfs comes out. Lol...that is a good one...I'd want my money back if I was on a getaway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DGEX says more snow for next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 well, at least if anyone is dissapointed with this storm we have another right after it. Hope all the people who were writing the end to winter didn't do it in permanent marker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 DGEX says more snow for next weekend there is more, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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