_AR_ Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 how hard? is it sticking? just curious...hoping NYC gets their 1" to break the all time monthly record.... It's been snowing here all day. Just a coating though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 how hard? is it sticking? just curious...hoping NYC gets their 1" to break the all time monthly record.... Justed started!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am going to go out on a limb here and say that most of it will definitely not be rain. Ice perhaps, but not rain. Sorry. All of those talking about rain are likely to be very surprised. Heck, HPC even says heavy snow north of the Mason/Dixon line. Do those of you calling for rain think that HPC does not know where the Mason/Dixon line is? By the way, I feel there is a very real possibility that the Accuweather map pasted below will end up verifying. It looks very close to what HPC is saying as well. that wording "heavy snow north of the MD line" will likely be altered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am going to go out on a limb here and say that most of it will definitely not be rain. Ice perhaps, but not rain. Sorry. All of those talking about rain are likely to be very surprised. Heck, HPC even says heavy snow north of the Mason/Dixon line. Do those of you calling for rain think that HPC does not know where the Mason/Dixon line is? By the way, I feel there is a very real possibility that the Accuweather map pasted below will end up verifying. It looks very close to what HPC is saying as well. I tend to believe you are correct based on the season so far, but there is not a lot of model support for that right now. Can you link me to the HPC discussion to which you're referring? Also, I am not 'calling' for rain, it just seemed like that was how it would wind up, especially for those of us S&E of PHL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 how hard? is it sticking? just curious...hoping NYC gets their 1" to break the all time monthly record.... Ace we may benefit from the fact that it's 3:30 already and the sun's strongest hours are behind us. I would have hated to see this precip move in like 11 in the morning and see it just stick to old snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Justed started!! It just got cloudy here-- the sun was peaking out of the clouds up until about 10 min ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2M temps at 87 hours are actually cooling on the srefs, this is a bad ice storm for many. it's also important to note that models have a bias to get rid of lower level cold air too early at this time range. if you recall, VD 2007 was supposed to be a rainstorm until the models really started to pick up on the cold air layer below 850 mb at around the 48 hour time range. I think the NAM was the first model to pick up on it. As forky said, as long as the low goes south of the area, a lot of people are going to be in for PL/ZR mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Honestly the only thing this winter is really missing now is a major ice event. pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 NOAA Monday Night: A chance of snow after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 50%.Tuesday: Snow likely, mainly after 9am. Cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet likely. Cloudy, with a low around 24. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday: Rain or freezing rain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Chance of precipitation is 50% http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Brooklyn&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=40.6498&lon=-73.9488 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ace we may benefit from the fact that it's 3:30 already and the sun's strongest hours are behind us. I would have hated to see this precip move in like 11 in the morning and see it just stick to old snow. Im actually shocked they didnt record anything for what happened last night. We had over a half inch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Intesting MT Holly forecast for western Monmouth cty, nj rain at 17 degrees MONDAY NIGHT MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 17. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. TUESDAY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. TUESDAY NIGHT...FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. SNOW SLEET AND RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN LIGHT SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS AROUND 30. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SLEET...RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY MAINLY IN THE MORNING. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET IN THE EVENING. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ace we may benefit from the fact that it's 3:30 already and the sun's strongest hours are behind us. I would have hated to see this precip move in like 11 in the morning and see it just stick to old snow. i agree- but I have to drive my kids to queens tonight and id prefer to not have the roads slick.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Been noticing the nam and srefs do something very interesting. They are clearly keeping north and south separated now as the southern vort just keeps diving south in response to the massive HP moving down. I think we are going to see less and less of a consolidated surface low and more of just an initial waa thump. The 558 500 height line is still south of nyc at 60 hours, its a flat look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z NAM coming in less amped...lower heights on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 it's also important to note that models have a bias to get rid of lower level cold air too early at this time range. if you recall, VD 2007 was supposed to be a rainstorm until the models really started to pick up on the cold air layer below 850 mb at around the 48 hour time range. I think the NAM was the first model to pick up on it. As forky said, as long as the low goes south of the area, a lot of people are going to be in for PL/ZR mix. I remember the little bet between Brian and OKCWeatherman (Steve) on that one. In reality, they were both partly right. It changed over like Brian thought it would but the temps never got to freezing, which is what Steve said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Been noticing the nam and srefs do something very interesting. They are clearly keeping north and south separated now as the southern vort just keeps diving south in response to the massive HP moving down. I think we are going to see less and less of a consolidated surface low and more of just an initial waa thump. The 558 500 height line is still south of nyc at 60 hours, its a flat look. this is what the 12z GGEM did and if that happened the area would have a high likelihood of seeing an all frozen event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z NAM coming in less amped...lower heights on the east coast why couldnt that stinken 1052mb high be about 1000 mile further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 looks like some light snow by late monday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 .25-.50 QPF for NYC on the 18z Nam from the 1st batch. All frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am going to go out on a limb here and say that most of it will definitely not be rain. Ice perhaps, but not rain. Sorry. All of those talking about rain are likely to be very surprised. Heck, HPC even says heavy snow north of the Mason/Dixon line. Do those of you calling for rain think that HPC does not know where the Mason/Dixon line is? By the way, I feel there is a very real possibility that the Accuweather map pasted below will end up verifying. It looks very close to what HPC is saying as well. Great point! If the pros say there is a chance I'll go with them,for they forecast and don't hug models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 .25-.50 QPF for NYC on the 18z Nam from the 1st batch. All frozen seems like 2/3rds would be snow? this going off os 850's only...so it might be less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 32 line dropping south at 78 hours and still below NYC. 850 above zero. Major ice signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 32 line dropping south at 78 hours and still below NYC. 850 above zero. Major ice signal. yeah just saw that.... let me get this straight- the first batch of precip appears to be solely WAA... the second batch is from the developing storm of phasing streams out west....correct? if so, i would love to see that 1052 hP cell drive EASt as opposed to south after 72hrs the 994 low in western tenn doesnt bode well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would assume that the 850 line goes north of NYC at 69 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 seems like 2/3rds would be snow? this going off os 850's only...so it might be less Snow or sleet. I have to check the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What happened to our banana high on the NAM? Looks like it's nonexistent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I would assume that the 850 line goes north of NYC at 69 hours or so. between 69 and 72... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Through 84 hours, the 32 degree line is under NYC while the 0c line is in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 between 69 and 72... Yeah you're right...it's just north of New Brunswick at 69 hours and is due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That HP can't slip east right away because of the PV and the -PNA. However, if that surface low just goes up the lakes like that, there won't be much precip as we would be dry slotted. Still think this evolves into a different look than we are seeing now, not a snowier solution, but perhaps weaker and dryer after the WAA event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.