ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 There was also an 80s snowstorm in December thrown in there somewhere-- I forget which year. At any rate, we got 8.6 inches of snow when it was supposed to be a changeover. We only changed over at the very end to freezing drizzle. One of those famous weekend snowstorms It's funny I remember the exact amount but not the year lol. that sounds very Jan 1987 to me. There was a dec storm...was it in dec 1987 (this was late friday, friday night storm) or 1989? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 From AMPSU and WXMX wxmx, on 29 January 2011 - 01:55 PM, said: Latest Euro doesn't like warm. Not at all, the 11-15d mean 850 temps are quite cold everywhere east of the Rockies. That was an impressive flop at 0z from where it had been all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lol I can't believe you all have written off two months of potential winter as if it's in the past already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If we get a March 1956 kind of storm. Hell, with the recent uptick in April snowstorms, an early April snowstorm is a possibility also. I believe Don hinted at this. I know 1916-1917 which is an analog for the winter (strong -NAO/strong Nina) had an April snow storm. Judging by all of the models/met ideas, it looks like Philly is screwed for this event aside from perhaps 1-3/2-4 of front end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1960-61 went down hill fast after the February 4th storm...This year I think will be different because I believe strong blocking will return and set the stage for a cold snowy ending...Not to mention the other storms we might see before that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 While that might be true, but Nina in March can be different than Nino like March 2009 was for us. has this winter behaved like a Nina winter???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 that sounds very Jan 1987 to me. There was a dec storm...was it in dec 1987 or 1989? No Dec 1989 we had two busted forecasts-- one ended up being a virga storm that hit DC hard and the other one ended up being a rainstorm-- both were supposed to give us 8 inches or so. One of the coldest Dec on record and we had no significant snow. Madness! This was back in mid 80s sometime-- I can narrow it down to somewhere between Dec 84 and Dec 86. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1960-61 went down hill fast after the February 4th storm...This year I think will be different because I believe strong blocking will return and set the stage for a cold snowy ending...Not to mention the other storms we might see before that... That's what Don Sutherland and wxmx thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lol I can't believe you all have written off two months of potential winter as if it's in the past already. not written off at all.... more like its been really harsh so far so its more like hoping we get a break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 has this winter behaved like a Nina winter???? Not even close and point taken. Now the ECMWF long range likes the cold for mid February... a flip of 180. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 In what areas? Depends where the low tracks and who changes from snow to rain. It doesn't really feel like an ice storm setup though as temps haven't really been frigid and it seems like it would go above freezing quickly if we get a south wind, although we are below freezing. However, temps are supposed to drop after the storm, so areas that do get ice probably wont melt very fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I know 1916-1917 which is an analog for the winter (strong -NAO/strong Nina) had an April snow storm. Judging by all of the models/met ideas, it looks like Philly is screwed for this event aside from perhaps 1-3/2-4 of front end snow. Yeah, and going by the last 20 years or so, it seems that early April snowstorms have actually become more common than March snowstorms lol. Approx 1 year out of 3 has seen an accumulating April snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 No Dec 1989 we had two busted forecasts-- one ended up being a virga storm that hit DC hard and the other one ended up being a rainstorm-- both were supposed to give us 8 inches or so. One of the coldest Dec on record and we had no significant snow. Madness! This was back in mid 80s sometime-- I can narrow it down to somewhere between Dec 84 and Dec 86. if you have the kocin book- look at the near misses- im thinking its dec 1987...i was a freshman in HS and it was the only storm all year EDIT- just looked at the KU book- nothing in any Dec in near misses other than dec 27-28 1990 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Can all the long range talk please be moved to the long range pattern thread? Its like reading an obituary in here and its January 29 and we are all above normal. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah, i'd actually prefer if March gradually transitioned into a nice spring, March snow becomes depressing as soon as it stops falling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i would say 99 out of 100 mets blew their winter forecasts...for obvious unforeseen reasons...but it was my argument many months ago that using sampling of 100 yrs of data while the worlds has been around for a lot longer made no sense...there is little data of strong ninas following the type of el nino we had last year.... I believe I am part of that 1% http://msiegelweatherman.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Depends where the low tracks and who changes from snow to rain. It doesn't really feel like an ice storm setup though as temps haven't really been frigid and it seems like it would go above freezing quickly if we get a south wind, although we are below freezing. However, temps are supposed to drop after the storm, so areas that do get ice probably wont melt very fast. the PV is in southern canada...it's actually a very cold airmass with -30c 850's just above the border. There's a limit to how warm it's going to get above 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 anyone have any thoughts on today's clipper? Radar looks like we can get a few hours on light snow....is it virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 anyone have any thoughts on today's clipper? Radar looks like we can get a few hours on light snow....is it virga? Snowing in Monmouth cty, nj now!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I believe I am part of that 1% http://msiegelweatherman.blogspot.com/ NOT BAD- actually some real nice calls in there.....Have you surpassed the 35-45" yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the PV is in southern canada...it's actually a very cold airmass with -30c 850's just above the border. There's a limit to how warm it's going to get above 40N quoting JB - Speaking of cold, its forecast now over the snowfields of the northeast is wild. Check it out on accuweather.com pro the forecasted lows behind this. It has the coldest forecasted temp I have ever seen in State College for instance... -29.7 C!!!! A wild week is coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 At the birthday party I just got back from I heard three different people tell other people that we were going to get 2 feet of snow with the storm next week and the person they told responded, 'I know, I heard that.'. Where do these people get there information from?.....Oh, right.... I wanted to tell everyone that it looked like most of it would be rain in our area, but I decided to not get into it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Definitely not virga. Has been lightly snowing here for an hour and have a coating on the ground. anyone have any thoughts on today's clipper? Radar looks like we can get a few hours on light snow....is it virga? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Snowing in Monmouth cty, nj now!! how hard? is it sticking? just curious...hoping NYC gets their 1" to break the all time monthly record.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 2M temps at 87 hours are actually cooling on the srefs, this is a bad ice storm for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Definitely not virga. Has been lightly snowing here for an hour and have a coating on the ground. cool- thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am going to go out on a limb here and say that most of it will definitely not be rain. Ice perhaps, but not rain. Sorry. All of those talking about rain are likely to be very surprised. Heck, HPC even says heavy snow north of the Mason/Dixon line. Do those of you calling for rain think that HPC does not know where the Mason/Dixon line is? By the way, I feel there is a very real possibility that the Accuweather map pasted below will end up verifying. It looks very close to what HPC is saying as well. At the birthday party I just got back from I heard three different people tell other people that we were going to get 2 feet of snow with the storm next week and the person they told responded, 'I know, I heard that.'. Where do these people get there information from?.....Oh, right.... I wanted to tell everyone that it looked like most of it would be rain in our area, but I decided to not get into it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 how hard? is it sticking? just curious...hoping NYC gets their 1" to break the all time monthly record.... Yeah it would be awesome to see the record set just last Feb be broken. I talked about this in another thread- but I think if we had the perfect pattern, NYC could actually get 50" of snow in a month, like BWI came close to doing in Feb 2003. We also talked about the possibilities of a perfect winter getting NYC and PHL to 100" It happened back in the 1800s. And if you go by the snowiest 365 day period, NYC is close to it right now. As far as snowiest storms go, Feb 1899 producing 35" of snow on the southern tip of NJ and some of the numbers produced by March 1888 lead me to believe that the perfect set up could produce a 40" snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the PV is in southern canada...it's actually a very cold airmass with -30c 850's just above the border. There's a limit to how warm it's going to get above 40N Very true, but that is one reason I am leaning more towards a snow solution for most of PA and at least NW of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Honestly the only thing this winter is really missing now is a major ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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