Sundog Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 with those players on the field it wont a diff how many hours out...just stating what the euro shows And I'm saying that nothing needs to change quick to make a scenario at 168 hours verify in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think we need to be more civil here before things go completely out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 as long as the surface low goes to our south, i don't think we will see any plain rain as long as you're above 400' that is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 And I'm saying that nothing needs to change quick to make a scenario at 168 hours verify in our favor. i agree- would like to see the first storm wind up a 50/50....dont think it will happen though based on how progressive the pattern is....hopefully it can park it self there just long enough to provide enough confluence to keep cold air in just long enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GFS just now looks like the Euro did yesterday. That means the GFS has changed to showing what the Euro did yesterday. Yesterday the GFS said a foot of snow for NYC, today it looks exactly like the Euro. The GFS did this with the last storm too. In fact, it took the GFS about 5 days to catch up to the Euro with the last storm. The GFS was clueless with the last storm until 3 days out. Isnt it interesting this winter the Euro always go towards GFS - Really strange. I think they are both going to change some more in the next 36 hours. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 jetski- its the same few people who respond to my posts ONLY when they are negative because they have nothing at all of substance to add....they also cant handle a solution other than a KU storm and if god forbid anyone has anything but snow comments to say they get frantic....they are 35 going 5 years old. If they're 35 they should remember what the 80s and early 90s were like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Snow will start around 12 or 1am on Tuesday morning. Does anyone have the precip start times for the euro for our region? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If they're 35 they should remember what the 80s and early 90s were like. blocked out of their memories, for obvious reasons.... I just followed sports back then so there arent too many disappointments...the first real big disappointment was feb 1989.....AC received 18" and we didnt even get flurries.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 as long as you're above 400' that is... that actually might hurt... this is very low level cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I have no idea what you are talking about. The GFS just now looks like the Euro did yesterday. That means the GFS has changed to showing what the Euro did yesterday. Yesterday the GFS said a foot of snow for NYC, today it looks exactly like the Euro. The GFS did this with the last storm too. So, truly, I have no idea what you are talking about. this is exactly what i posted a few minutes and was met with resistance from him....A few mets earlier in other threads had mentioned the same thing....let him believe what he wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 15z SREF through 87 hours have frozen precip from NYC north. The surface goes right through NYC while the 850's are warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i agree- would like to see the first storm wind up a 50/50....dont think it will happen though based on how progressive the pattern is....hopefully it can park it self there just long enough to provide enough confluence to keep cold air in just long enough i think our epic stretch of winter is coming to an end... the NAO is disgustingly positive by day 7-10 and the PNA ridge starts to break down. Our saving grace is the -EPO but at best that will allow for thread the needle southwest flow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If they're 35 they should remember what the 80s and early 90s were like. The 80's snow experience really came down to just 3 days for me but they were really memorable. 4/6/82 2/11/83 1/22/87 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 15z SREF through 87 hours have frozen precip from NYC north. The surface goes right through NYC while the 850's are warm. the 9Z's at 87hrs had the 850 and 2M 0C lines south of us...where are they at 81hrs on the 15Z's...for some reason my NCEP isnt updated yet...thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 this is looking like it could be a very significant ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i think our epic stretch of winter is coming to an end... the NAO is distgustingly positive by day 7-10 and the PNA ridge starts to break down. Our saving grace is the -EPO but at best that will allow for thread the needle southwest flow events. sssshhhh, youll have the natives in an uproar.... i tend to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 80's snow experience really came down to just 3 days for me but they were really memorable. 4/6/82 2/11/83 1/22/87 I agree-- I clearly remember all of them, much better than some events from the 90s (outside of 92-93, 93-94 and 95-96.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i think our epic stretch of winter is coming to an end... the NAO is distgustingly positive by day 7-10 and the PNA ridge starts to break down. Our saving grace is the -EPO but at best that will allow for thread the needle southwest flow events. I agree after next weekend things should slow down; now if we can reload for late February remains to be seen. I would like to have a March snowstorm this year unlike last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 this is looking like it could be a very significant ice storm In what areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 sssshhhh, youll have the natives in an uproar.... i tend to agree with you. It's funny because the 2nd part of the winter was forecasted to be better than the 1st part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree after next weekend things should slow down; now if we can reload for late February remains to be seen. I would like to have a March snowstorm this year unlike last year. WSI, which predicted a vacation from blocking in February, also predicts a return to strong -NAO blocking for March and April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The 80's snow experience really came down to just 3 days for me but they were really memorable. 4/6/82 2/11/83 1/22/87 in 82 i was exactly the age of my oldest son right now ( 8 1/2)..I have no real memories other than the Yankee opening day game was snowed out and I was pissed! 2/11/83 was great. I remember sitting in class (3rd grade) and seeing the horizon so bright and I was thinking it wasnt going to snow (negative already ;-)).... I was in 8th grade for the jan 87 storm and I remember the forecast was a quick 1-3" before rain....1010wins kept upping the totals but always kept the rain in the forecast....they were right, it ended as drizzle ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i think our epic stretch of winter is coming to an end... the NAO is distgustingly positive by day 7-10 and the PNA ridge starts to break down. Our saving grace is the -EPO but at best that will allow for thread the needle southwest flow events. Agree with this. All the things we expect in a typical Nina are starting to rear their ugly heads. This is one of the most realistic posts in this thread based on the long range guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WSI, which predicted a vacation from blocking in February, also predicts a return to strong -NAO blocking for March and April. Alex, I think we can suprass 1995-1996 even with a break in February, Do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I agree after next weekend things should slow down; now if we can reload for late February remains to be seen. I would like to have a March snowstorm this year unlike last year. if we have a bleak february we are likely done..the days of the march snow events has been replaced with december snow events....march has been a warm month for years now....odds will not be in our favor if we arent within 5-7" be febs end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 in 82 i was exactly the age of my oldest son right now ( 8 1/2)..I have no real memories other than the Yankee opening day game was snowed out and I was pissed! 2/11/83 was great. I remember sitting in class (3rd grade) and seeing the horizon so bright and I was thinking it wasnt going to snow (negative already ;-)).... I was in 8th grade for the jan 87 storm and I remember the forecast was a quick 1-3" before rain....1010wins kept upping the totals but always kept the rain in the forecast....they were right, it ended as drizzle ;-) There was also an 80s snowstorm in December thrown in there somewhere-- I forget which year. At any rate, we got 8.6 inches of snow when it was supposed to be a changeover. We only changed over at the very end to freezing drizzle. One of those famous weekend snowstorms It's funny I remember the exact amount but not the year lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 if we have a bleak february we are likely done..the days of the march snow events has been replaced with december snow events....march has been a warm month for years now....odds will not be in our favor if we arent within 5-7" be febs end While that might be true, but Nina in March can be different than Nino like March 2009 was for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Alex, I think we can suprass 1995-1996 even with a break in February, Do you? If we get a March 1956 kind of storm. Hell, with the recent uptick in April snowstorms, an early April snowstorm is a possibility also. I believe Don hinted at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It's funny because the 2nd part of the winter was forecasted to be better than the 1st part. i would say 99 out of 100 mets blew their winter forecasts...for obvious unforeseen reasons...but it was my argument many months ago that using sampling of 100 yrs of data while the worlds has been around for a lot longer made no sense...there is little data of strong ninas following the type of el nino we had last year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WSI, which predicted a vacation from blocking in February, also predicts a return to strong -NAO blocking for March and April. too late....even with a -nao in march we can still wind up with days in 40" and 50's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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