Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 We need a GFS/Euro compromise for the storm at day 7. And given the model's biases, that might actually be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 not sure what Ian is talking abt- all you have to do is look at the h5 maps i posted to know that doesnt really have a shot....it will wind up as a thread the needle situation at best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 not sure what Ian is talking abt- all you have to do is look at the h5 maps i posted to know that doesnt really have a shot....it will wind up as a thread the needle situation at best Ace, I agree to an extent because of lack of NEG NAO and the huge PNA ridge, which we has weakene somewhat... BUT if the 50-50 Low can blow up, as some the CIPIS analogs indicate (Jan 2, 1996, which set the stage for Jan 7, 1996), when we might got something, but a long way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The day 7 threat is showing up more and more now - interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC Final afternoon update still goes with heavy snow north of ohio river and mason dixon line ! EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011 ..WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK... ...AFTERNOON UPDATE... NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY 4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS. EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.WITH MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN THRU THE PLAINS WITH TEH COLDEST AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES EXTREME COLD WILL SET INTO THE PLAINS WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NEAR OR BELOW 30 DEGREE DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL YIELDING A HUGE AREA OF NEAR AND BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES READINGS DAY AND NIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND TO THE WEST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL INTO LATE WEEK. RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 not sure what Ian is talking abt- all you have to do is look at the h5 maps i posted to know that doesnt really have a shot....it will wind up as a thread the needle situation at best Well if the Euro is indeed holding back too much energy in the southwest, and the GFS is indeed pushing the CAA and cold front too far SE, we might have something here. Though yeah, if it wasn't "this winter", I'd certainly be more negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 not sure what Ian is talking abt- all you have to do is look at the h5 maps i posted to know that doesnt really have a shot....it will wind up as a thread the needle situation at best As i said earlier in this thread. Until mid week gets resolved next weekend is a guess at this time. To say this doesn't have a shot at 7 days out is ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC Final afternoon update still goes with heavy snow north of ohio river and mason dixon line ! You realize that by saying the "Mason Dixon line" they could mean anywhere from PHL to Pittsburgh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 here is 168....not good. still no blocking...and no HP...this pattern isnt very good....need it to change quick. Ace, what happened to the supposed Arctic shot we were going to get behind the midweek storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Its 7 days out - nice to see a threat. Big difference in handling SW energy between GFS, Euro and GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ace, what happened to the supposed Arctic shot we were going to get behind the midweek storm? The Euro holds back a lot of energy in the SW, which shifts the entire pattern west, and thus the CAA does not penetrate nearly as far SE as it does on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You realize that by saying the "Mason Dixon line" they could mean anywhere from PHL to Pittsburgh? yes I realize where the mason dixon line is and it is here - and they know it is there too ... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mason%E2%80%93Dixon_Line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ace, I agree to an extent because of lack of NEG NAO and the huge PNA ridge, which we has weakene somewhat... BUT if the 50-50 Low can blow up, as some the CIPIS analogs indicate (Jan 2, 1996, which set the stage for Jan 7, 1996), when we might got something, but a long way off. look at jan 3rd on the CIPS analog page...there was a 5-/50 there previous to the first storm...bad analog to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ace, what happened to the supposed Arctic shot we were going to get behind the midweek storm? someone posted it back. because the EURO holds energy back in the SW, the trough digs out there and stalls the advance of the cold air into the NE/MA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well if the Euro is indeed holding back too much energy in the southwest, and the GFS is indeed pushing the CAA and cold front too far SE, we might have something here. Though yeah, if it wasn't "this winter", I'd certainly be more negative. Sounds like we want something in between those two solutions. Let's see what happens with the ensembles, they've been far more accurate than any OP this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Ace, what happened to the supposed Arctic shot we were going to get behind the midweek storm? its literally been like 6 years since we have had any arctic air around here....every time i see it advertised I just laugh and know it aint coming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Does anyone have the precip start times for the euro for our region? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 someone posted it back. because the EURO holds energy back in the SW, the trough digs out there and stalls the advance of the cold air into the NE/MA... There are 3 diferent storms out there at the moment over the next week. 1- The first overuninng (mostly snow from PHL north) 2- If the 2nd cuts more it would drive cold further S/E and force the 3rd storm OTS (GFS) or off the coast, if the 2nd storm end up colder more surpressed than there is room for the 3rd to come west more... Going to be interesting to see how the 3 storms affect one another... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 its literally been like 6 years since we have had any arctic air around here....every time i see it advertised I just laugh and know it aint coming... Well we did get down to 5 degrees last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 not sure what Ian is talking abt- all you have to do is look at the h5 maps i posted to know that doesnt really have a shot....it will wind up as a thread the needle situation at best It's going to change a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 UKMET (12z) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well we did get down to 5 degrees last week. one day? and it was 34 for a high the next day...come on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 here is 168....not good. still no blocking...and no HP...this pattern isnt very good....need it to change quick. Quick? It's 168 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 How much energy phases out west is going to have a downstream effect later on in the period. Since this still has not been well resolved by the models its too early to speculate what the end result will be but if some of the energy is left behind it could develop into something big if our first storm ends up as a 50/50. I had the unfortunate experience of being in Florida for the Daytona 500 the year of PDII. It rained throughout the race and ended ahead of schedule thanks to the monster brewing north of me. My flight was canceled and I didn't make it out until 72hrs later. Before we left, we noticed the forecast was calling for two seperate 4-8" systems a day or two apart and asked our neighbor if he wouldn't mind taking care of our driveway. Well...the rest is history. Goes to show you even the historic ones often show up as somethng else with a couple days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Unfortunately in a -EPO pattern without Atlantic blocking,we often get just enough of a SE Ridge to have to be concerned with tracks inland and right along the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Isnt it interesting this winter the Euro always go towards GFS - Really strange. I think they are both going to change some more in the next 36 hours. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Quick? It's 168 hours out. with those players on the field it wont a diff how many hours out...just stating what the euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dale803 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 rossi- hint- the gfs went towards the Euro just today... and the gfs had major init errors...so whats that say about the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 and the gfs had major init errors...so whats that say about the euro The GFS had major init errors with the Boxing Day storm too. You know how that went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 as long as the surface low goes to our south, i don't think we will see any plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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