LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lee, Similar story for Philly and NYC with this one...but watch out for the front end and I don't think we warm up nearly as much as some guidance would suggest Paul Thank you Paul, so this could be a sneaky event for us then. So maybe you might feel the sameway as i do about how this sub-forum thing isnt doing what its supposed to be doing with the Regional thing its become very obvious this has become more of a NYC region sub-forum with shades of our area thrown in here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Thank you Paul, so this could be a sneaky event for us then. So maybe you might feel the sameway as i do about how this sub-forum thing isnt doing what its supposed to be doing with the Regional thing its become very obvious this has become more of a NYC region sub-forum with shades of our area thrown in here and there. EURO & GFS are almost identical at this point... If we can get 2-4"/3-6" from the 1st wave that would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
njblizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like the GFS. Which had massive error. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC THE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORSOVER BRITISH COLUMBIA... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yep...euro is .25-.50 of front running snow for us Great news. Perhaps this can become a Feb 22, 2008 event like I alluded to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Which had massive error. Lol the same massive error it had right before the dec 26 blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sounds like NEPA goes snow to ice to drizzle on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 On e-wall looks like Euro hangs back energy in SW could be good by day 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 total preciep for both events is .75 for phl...snj is .50+....from ttn-north its 1.00+ of qpf.......this included the front running snow which we get .25+ for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hour 90.. 1000mb low into indiana.. thats gotta bring some warm air aloft on the euro...32 line holding steady 96.. NE PA from quakertown north and eaast ice storm...maybe even as far south as bucks county.. low centered over ohio. holding around 1004-1000mb 102- 1000mb low over pa, everyone in the state has changed over NYC south rainstorm.. shore points pushing 50.. cities 40's... 108, low east of cape cod.. precip winding down, temps getting colder, but not cold enough.. ugghh .75" baltimore to bucks county ..north of there, 1"+ .. not sure whats frozen and whats not,, looks like maybe 3/4 of it is wet/warm function deleterec(delname, delid){ var answer = confirm("Are you sure you want to delete "+delname+" comment?") if (answer){ window.location = "/deletecomment/18003/delete/"+delid+"/"; } } Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sounds like NEPA goes snow to ice to drizzle on this run. pretty much.....for the citys most of snow comes with the front running....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Slightly off topic but did anybody see the GFS around the 144-150 time frame, develops a week low off the SC coast with high pressure anchored over NE thanks to the energy that was left behind from the first system. System is week and deamplified but could it be something more..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hour 90.. 1000mb low into indiana.. thats gotta bring some warm air aloft on the euro...32 line holding steady 96.. NE PA from quakertown north and eaast ice storm...maybe even as far south as bucks county.. low centered over ohio. holding around 1004-1000mb 102- 1000mb low over pa, everyone in the state has changed over NYC south rainstorm.. shore points pushing 50.. cities 40's... 108, low east of cape cod.. precip winding down, temps getting colder, but not cold enough.. ugghh .75" baltimore to bucks county ..north of there, 1"+ .. not sure whats frozen and whats not,, looks like maybe 3/4 of it is wet/warm function deleterec(delname, delid){ var answer = confirm("Are you sure you want to delete "+delname+" comment?") if (answer){ window.location = "/deletecomment/18003/delete/"+delid+"/"; } } Hopefully that trends colder, or it would be an epic for the snowcover we have, in addition to any rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 pretty much.....for the citys most of snow comes with the front running....... So the Euro is snow-Ice to rain for the city or snow to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 pretty much.....for the citys most of snow comes with the front running....... How do temps look? I would guess 35-37*F at the peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Great news. Perhaps this can become a Feb 22, 2008 event like I alluded to last night. Yes, just get rid of the rain part now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So the Euro is snow-Ice to rain for the city or snow to rain? looks as if at 96, some low level cold hangs on with about .10-.25" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Great news. Perhaps this can become a Feb 22, 2008 event like I alluded to last night. That storm never phased. I got 6 inches of snow and a little drizzle at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hopefully that trends colder, or it would be an epic for the snowcover we have, in addition to any rain. So what caused the huge shift from colder to warmer solutions, JM? 1) primary holding on longer-- no coastal development 2) coastal development, but coastal goes inland Lee Goldberg was hinting at 1 last night (Apps runner, no coastal development) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hopefully that trends colder, or it would be an epic for the snowcover we have, in addition to any rain. I can remember a number of flat top roof collapses around the region back in 1996 when we got rain on top of the snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hopefully that trends colder, or it would be an epic for the snowcover we have, in addition to any rain. If the system is weaker I can't see NYC breaking 40...Philly could... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro has the initial WAA snows, followed by the second warmer part of the storm. Due to the confluence up north, the second storm gets sheared out and weakens by the time it enters the region. However, it is still strong enough to pull up enough warm air to change most to light rain/drizzle after some more front end snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I can remember a number of flat top roof collapses around the region back in 1996 when we got rain on top of the snowpack. Do you remember the epic roof collapse of the supermarket in Massapequa? If there are any fans of catastrophic weather (I doubt there are any of those on here), they'd be rooting for rain not snow as a rainstorm would be FAR more disruptive right now than any snowstorm could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The Euro holds back so much energy that the entire trough is insanely digging/amplifying. The problem though is that because of this, the stalled frontal boundary is further west, so our temps are borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro has the initial WAA snows, followed by the second warmer part of the storm. Due to the confluence up north, the second storm gets sheared out and weakens by the time it enters the region. However, it is still strong enough to pull up enough warm air to change most to light rain/drizzle after some more front end snows. That would be a good scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 euro shooting that energy our earlier is cooking up a storm next weekend as well now. verbatim it's pretty warm thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Storm forming gulf at 144 per e-wall - has room to come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Storm forming gulf at 144 per e-wall - has room to come north. here is 168....not good. still no blocking...and no HP...this pattern isnt very good....need it to change quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1004 low over se va 6z SAT... 850 0c back to MRB then down the wv/va border. This threat seems to be gaining traction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So what caused the huge shift from colder to warmer solutions, JM? 1) primary holding on longer-- no coastal development 2) coastal development, but coastal goes inland Lee Goldberg was hinting at 1 last night (Apps runner, no coastal development) The bundled up energy was probably the main culprit-it causes a stronger primary that rides NE and not ENE along the bottom of the PV. We need for it to somewhat shear out like some of the models aka the GGEM are doing now. First off it would elongate the storm and provide some snow here while the cold air is locked in, and the major storm wouldn't cut as far north. The Euro sees the strength of the cold air this run and it can't cut the storm as far north. Also, the deeper the cold air, the more likely it is that the storm has to redevelop along or off the coast. There's a ton of cold air to work with, so we have room to cool down and trend south still. My money is on mostly a slop storm of everything here. I don't think one particular ptype dominates-we get somewhat of a front end snow thump, and then sleet for a while to rain or even ZR. Interior areas in SE NY and NJ likely get a ton of ice since models always overdo warm surface air at this stage (but not mid level). Hopefully the warm advection shuts off for a while so the immediate coast doesn't torch way into the 40s again. We're going to have so much water in the snow after this that whatever we have left will freeze like a brick. At some point when it finally does warm up we could have big flooding problems on our hands especially if we also have a wet spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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