Feb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The late week system will be a lot like the system last Saturday (Outer Banks snow)....that won't be able to fully ride up the coast due to confluence to its north. I believe the storm mid week needs to be resolved before people can start saying what a system next weekend will or will not do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 It just doesn't really seem likely at this point to hope for such a thing more than 2 days out. I mean it would be nice but it just isn't the norm lately. At this point it doesn't look likely for an all snow event however I said the same thing last week and while not all snow it was 90% snow. One thing I don't like is at this point is when the GFS is usually out to sea and furthest southeast. Since that's not the case I'm thinking less and less that we'll see primarily a snow event. Probably a few inches initially and maybe on the backside but the bulk could be alot of frozen non snow or even liquid. Its sort of like the reverse of last winter where those of us in NYC thought every storm was going to be suppressed but our luck changed with the 2/10 event. Well at some point our luck will run out and places that have missed out like the interior of PA/NY will probably start to have their fortunes change. Or we'll just continue to get feet and feet of snow To be honest, I'm just hoping for some concensus either way with this event. Seems like just about everyone this year has come down to nowcasting with the exception of the 12/26 storm and even then the models only came into agreement 24hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I believe the storm mid week needs to be resolved before people can start saying what a system next weekend will or will not do. If I add the word "probably" next to will in my post will that make you feel better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 take a look at these analogs from the 12z GFS.........I'm suprised nobody posted them. I believe they are basis the midwest region current setup and not whats currently going on over the east. Oh and the #1 analog..........might suprise some. http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 take a look at these analogs from the 00z GFS.........I'm suprised nobody posted them. I believe they are basis the midwest region current setup and not whats currently going on over the east. Oh and the #1 analog..........might suprise some. http://www.eas.slu.e...fhr=120&flg=new Jan 3, 1996 was a major CNE snow event and was a lot of slop here in NYC. It set the stage though for the blizzard a few days later. I could see something like that happening (a storm with a lot of slop here and snowier well north of us). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Jan 3, 1996 was a major CNE snow event and was a lot of slop here in NYC. It set the stage though for the blizzard a few days later. I could see something like that happening (a storm with a lot of slop here and snowier well north of us). yes....the funny thing is when you look at the 72hr snowfall totals, it shows alot of what fell during the HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You know.........the way some of the models are leaving that leftover energy down south bears watching. I know most of the models keep it weak and OTS but I wonder if a more southward track of the main low could lead to a more favorable low development. Would have loved to see what would of happened had we had the type of blocking that occured in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I like the subtle shift to the east with GFS. I think the Euro run should be interesting to see if it shifts like the GGEM. Does anyone have the JMA? Believe it or not, the JMA did quite well with the last storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Latest Wxsim program with 12z data has continued the trend toward more wet than white than with 3 or 4" front end some ZR and then around 1" of liquid with temps rising to 42.....(again I have my doubts of that here in the NW burbs of the city) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC said the GFS had massive int. errors so they threw it out. Prefer the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A lot of weenie comments in here. The gfs has an inch of rain after almost .5 freezing rain in and around NYC. While that doesnt wipe out our snowpack, that would not be a break even outcome. Let's face it, the euro was probably onto something yesterday and the models are following the lead. Please do not quote this and give me the "look what happened last storm comments" lol. We'll see if the lower levels trend colder in future runs which is possible I suppose. But we also need a much weaker solution than the models are now showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 BTW, I made an error, those analogs were basis the current run of the GFS (120 hrs) with a focus point around the midwest. BTW if you jump around regions, it changes quite a bit. Some areas even point the finger to late FEB 2001, the storm we don't like to talk about. I think its clear we could be in for something nice after this event is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet-Phase Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The UKMET appears a little further south and east than the 0Z. Can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 HPC said the GFS had massive int. errors so they threw it out. Prefer the UKMET. i thought you were trolling, lol ...UPPER TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIESTHROUGH THE PERIOD...PREFERENCE: UKMETTHE NAM AND GFS HAVE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT INITIALIZATION ERRORSOVER BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH THE NAM TOO WEAK AND NORTHEAST WITH THE CENTER OF THEDEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND GFS TOO STRONG AND SOUTH. THESE DIFFERENCES CONTRIBUTE TOGROWING SOLUTION DIFFERENCES OVER TIME...WITH THE GFS LESSAGGRESSIVE IN DIGGING THE TROUGH INTO THE ROCKIES...A SOLUTIONWHICH IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND ITS RELATIVEPOSITION WITHIN THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE...THENAM...ALTHOUGH WITH INITIALIZATION ISSUES OF ITS OWN BUT NOT ASMUCH AS THE GFS...PRODUCES A FORECAST CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUSINCLUDING ENSEMBLES...AND THUS IS CONSIDERED REASONABLE.OTHERWISE...THE NEW UKMET HAS TRENDED TOWARD THE 00Z ECMWF BUT ISNOT AS FAR WEST NOR AS DEEP WITH THE UPPER LOW BY 84 HRS...ANDGIVEN ITS MORE RECENT AND MORE ACCEPTABLEINITIALIZATION...PRODUCES THE MOST PREFERRED SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If I add the word "probably" next to will in my post will that make you feel better? Yes. Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Latest Wxsim program with 12z data has continued the trend toward more white than wet 3 or 4" front end some ZR and then around 1" of liquid with temps rising to 42.....(again I have my doubts of that here in the NW burbs of the city) I can buy 3-4 front end, zr and freezing drizzle/sleet for a while before the inch of rain in our backyards....you may ice longer than I do though. I doubt 42...could be a 33 and rain type event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the euro got wetter with the front running precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 i thought you were trolling, lol Nope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The other thing that I think needs to be watched is the Tuesday part of this storm...that could sneak up on folks and could drop a quick 1-3 for the cities, 2-5 n/w if it gets in before temps warm above freezing aloft. Just like part 1 of the storm we just had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Just like part 1 of the storm we just had. Euro is also on board with it BTW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 the euro got wetter with the front running precip yep...euro is .25-.50 of front running snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 90 low in southern Indy.....850's north of the city...surface south of phl...very light preciep in the area....chicago getting pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yep...euro is .25-.50 of front running snow for us People are focusing on NY region what about further south into Philly region. These threads seem to be more focused on NYC then what this sub forum is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A lot of weenie comments in here. The gfs has an inch of rain after almost .5 freezing rain in and around NYC. While that doesnt wipe out our snowpack, that would not be a break even outcome. Let's face it, the euro was probably onto something yesterday and the models are following the lead. Please do not quote this and give me the "look what happened last storm comments" lol. We'll see if the lower levels trend colder in future runs which is possible I suppose. But we also need a much weaker solution than the models are now showing. lol a lot of people are just skipping by this storm and focusing on what might come after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 96 850's north of the nyc.....surface run down through nyc-edison-ttn-west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lee, Similar story for Philly and NYC with this one...but watch out for the front end and I don't think we warm up nearly as much as some guidance would suggest Paul People are focusing on NY region what about further south into Philly region. These threads seem to be more focused on NYC then what this sub forum is all about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 People are focusing on NY region what about further south into Philly region. These threads seem to be more focused on NYC then what this sub forum is all about. thats for you also....why i said all of us...2nd part of the storm in rain for you...perhaps a bit of mixing at onset......2nd part is 97% rain for phl-south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 96 850's north of the nyc.....surface run down through nyc-edison-ttn-west... Looks like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lee, Similar story for Philly and NYC with this one...but watch out for the front end and I don't think we warm up nearly as much as some guidance would suggest Paul Thanks Paul, I'm thinking we aren't as warm as some models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 hr 102 everyone is rain...low in central PA...its not alot of rain really...seems like we would dry slot after a changeover for ttn-north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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