IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1.5" of rain with temps in the 40's would be devestating for my area. Our snowpack is over 20" high. I still had snow on my lawn from 12/26 when it got covered up by more snow. Even when temps got into the 50's in early January, I never totally lost my snowpack so you can get an idea as to how much snow is in my yard right now. The sides of my driveway have about 40" on them and its almost impossible to see when I'm backing out. Numerous piles everywhere as well. The first six inches of the snow pack is fairly soft but with temps getting into the 30's the last two days we've had some melting and re-freeze. The layer below that is a different story. The sleet we had at the onset of the last storm more or less covered everything in ice and its rock hard. So...how much rain can six inches of snow absorb? Maybe we get lucky and temps stay in the 30's and we loose less than half the snowpack. One other thing, alot of the flooding around here (Passaic River Basin) comes from the runoff in the upper parts of Passaic County. They have less snow this year than we do because they have been on the NW edge of most of the heavier stuff all season, the worst flooding might end up further down stream than me for a change. We had devistating flooding in March of this past year and many areas are still rebuilding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 One other thing, Upton said we had a 2-3" QPF snowpack on the ground before the last two storms....so its probably more like a 2.5-4" snowpack at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GGEM has some front end snow as soon as 72 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12z GGEM is less wrapped up and transfers to a coastal low sooner than the previous run. Some back end snows too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM is much further south and colder than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Here is the GGEM at 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The normally amped GGEM showing a colder and snowier solution is a good sign, but that trend is outweighed by every other model showing a snow-ice-rain storm for the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Everyone relax...last week at this time we were having the same discussion and everyone was worried about rain and OTS and see what happened...The way this winter is going I wouldn't be surprised if we get another good snow or snow/ice situation. Maybe at least this time our friends in PA's anthracite region will get in the action. By the way...can someone take me off the 5 post limit...It's been a week now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 So.....whats the NOGAPS say? Anyone have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 PHL Soundings: h78-- just as precip moving in, barely freezing from 850 down to surface--Tmax is -0.2 (900/925), Tmin is -0.8 (850)--QPF 0.1" h84-- -0.1C @ 800mb, above freezing 850-950, surface -0.6--probably ZR--QPF 0.05-0.1" h90-- surface cooling, marginal @ 750mb (-0.6C), above from 800-950 (Tmax 3.5C), surface -3.1C--definitely ZR--QPF 0.1" h96-- above freezing from 800mb down to surface--RN--QPF 0.20-0.25" h102--blowtorch! It's 52F @ 925 mb, surface near 40F, above freezing from 700mb down.--QPF 0.70-0.80" h108--above freezing from 800 mb down to surface, though near surface (925-1000mb) cooling substantially--QPF 0.15-0.2" h114--column below freezing again--QPF 0" So, at PHL maybe 0.1" QPF as snow, 0.15-0.2" as ZR/IP, 1.05-1.25" as RN --major flooding concerns. NYC Soundings: h78--good for all snow Tmax -2.8C (850), QPF 0.1" h84--good for all snow Tmax -0.2C (850) but getting real dicey--QPF 0.03-0.05" h90--800-900mb warm above freezing, Tmax 0.4C, SN/IP mix--QPF 0.05-0.1" h96--800-925mb warm above freezing, Tmax 2.2C (850), this is definitely IP--QPF 0.25-0.3" h102--everything below 700mb above freezing, Tmax 7.0C (900), RN--QPF 0.7-0.8" h108--950-975mb cool below freezing, but everything else 800mb to surface is above, RN/IP mix--QPF 0.25-0.3" h114--column below freezing--QPF 0.01" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The normally amped GGEM showing a colder and snowier solution is a good sign, but that trend is outweighed by every other model showing a snow-ice-rain storm for the cities. 12Z EURO should be interesting to see if it follows the GGEM. We are still a few days away from the event and its still very possible for a reversal in trends....We have seen it many times this winter already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like the GGEM hangs back most of the energy in the s/w and instead sends out an overrunning piece of energy that is mostly frozen for our area. That would definitely be ideal in this situation unlike the GFS which sends out all the energy at once resulting in an overamplifed solution for us. Not to mention this could result in a second storm down the road when the cutoff over the s/w starts to eject out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I wouldn't trust the GGEM on this, since it is notorious for flipping around numerous times over the last few storms. The Euro will be much more important. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks like the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 To be honest, I'm just hoping for some concensus either way with this event. Seems like just about everyone this year has come down to nowcasting with the exception of the 12/26 storm and even then the models only came into agreement 24hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks like the GGEM. Do you have the 2 periods before that? Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks like the GGEM. Check the frame beforehand...looks more like it agrees with the OP. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 12Z GEFS is faster compared to 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Classic Midwest snowstorm in the making. The late-week system holds some promise however. DGEX honking and GFS is right where we want it and plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 To be honest, I'm just hoping for some concensus either way with this event. Seems like just about everyone this year has come down to nowcasting with the exception of the 12/26 storm and even the models only came into agreement 24hrs out. That pretty much sums up what this year has been all the models have had some kind of trouble with east coast cyclogenesis and its come down to nowcasting time frame for the models to get a handle on these storms. Example this past storm was progged to a rainstorm for I-95 5 days before the event and look what happened the models trended se with time instead of a nw trend as usual going from an apps runner to a nor'easter. This set up appears to be different however but with the forecast models performances this year each run has to be suspect until inside the 48 hour window if that. That's my view on this current storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Classic Midwest snowstorm in the making. The late-week system holds some promise however. DGEX honking and GFS is right where we want it and plenty cold. That's if there is a major phase. Nothing is set in stone just yet. GGEM is mostly a mix for the NYC area. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Actually we should lose very little snowcover during this event because we should have at least several inches of snow on the front end especially north of philly and the rain and 30's should only last for several hours before it dips below freezing - so basically the only loss in snowcover will be what fell on the front end - kind of a break even storm........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS ensemble mean looks like the GGEM. precip is long over by then...what abt the 4 panels before hr 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Actually we should lose very little snowcover during this event because we should have at least several inches of snow on the front end especially north of philly and the rain and 30's should only last for sevral hours before it dips below freezing - so basically the only loss in snowcover wi be what fell on the front end - kind of a break even storm........ 30's, and several inches of snow is rather generous if some of the more amplified runs verify. The Euro wants to bring 50's into the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 precip is long over by then...what abt the 4 panels before hr 108 Looks like the op. I wouldn't take any model seriously until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 That's if there is a major phase. Nothing is set in stone just yet. GGEM is mostly a mix for the NYC area. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Yikes. Truckloads of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GGEM @ 144 hours looks interesting with the leftover energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Classic Midwest snowstorm in the making. The late-week system holds some promise however. DGEX honking and GFS is right where we want it and plenty cold. The late week system will be a lot like the system last Saturday (Outer Banks snow)....that won't be able to fully ride up the coast due to confluence to its north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The other thing that I think needs to be watched is the Tuesday part of this storm...that could sneak up on folks and could drop a quick 1-3 for the cities, 2-5 n/w if it gets in before temps warm above freezing aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 30's, and several inches of snow is rather generous if some of the more amplified runs verify. The Euro wants to bring 50's into the Delmarva. I always love it when minutes later someone replies with a negative response - except - was I talking about the Delmarva ???? I was referring to north of philly - Of course it could be 50's there and 30's north of philly happens all the time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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