2/1-4 Potential Part II

[Edge Weather]

No, I don't think it will make it that far north. I think the high will build in stronger to the north of the low and keep the low about 100-150 miles further south.

Do you really think with such a jacked up low cutting into the GL that the 850 line is going to remain south of NYC?

[Thunder Road]

Thank you, to honestly believe the HPC is saying this is a major snowstorm for NYC or thereabouts is absurd. They said they see a band of heavy snow north of the mason dixon line, HOW does that translate to major snowstorm for NYC?

Earlier runs of both American models had a band of decent WAA precip setting up in this area. Both have since backed off. Whether right or wrong, i don't know, but that's what HPC is referencing. Isn't that discussion from this morning or the 12z suite?

I'm sure they will drop that wording tonight.

[MJO812]

crack, and I agree. Onto the gfs.

The Nam barely gives the area any front running precip.

What? It says expect a broad heavy snow swath north of the Mason/Dixon line? That is not a snow storm? What?

Actually, it's not lol. You can have heavy non sticking snow.

[Edge Weather]

Did you see their snow probability map? Why don't you post that as well?

If I get 6" of sleet + snow--any combination, I will post a picture on the board of me literally chewing on a hat.

You're reading what you WANT to read. Pittsburgh's north of the Mason/Dixon line. Does PIT getting a "major winter storm" mean you get one? Please.

This is from HPC's discussion:

Now look at their maps:

If you truly believe that this setup gets YOU a snowstorm around NYC, you should probably spend more time reading and less time posting to learn why this isn't the case.

[Guest stormchaser]

No, I don't think it will make it that far north. I think the high will build in stronger to the north of the low and keep the low about 100-150 miles further south.

That is fine, your entitled to your opinion.

Still even if the low is 100 miles further south that does not mean the 850 line will be 100 miles further south respectively. That is still a low cutting up the MW, pumping up the SE ridge ahead of it. There is little to suggest that there would be any coastal redevelopment which is what you would need to be correct here.

[Thunder Road]

Actually, it's not lol. You can have heavy non sticking snow.

2/25/10

[NortheastPAWx]

The GFS and NAM both produce an insanely strong low that seems unlikely to occur...as for the NAM having the overrunning snows well north initially, that could be right or wrong, I don't know..it depends ultimately how much the SE ridge fires...given the PV at 60-66 hours I think the NAM may be too far north with the snows.

Which solution do you think is best at this point?

[Edge Weather]

Who said specifically NYC?

Thank you, to honestly believe the HPC is saying this is a major snowstorm for NYC or thereabouts is absurd. They said they see a band of heavy snow north of the mason dixon line, HOW does that translate to major snowstorm for NYC?

[Guest stormchaser]

Did you see their snow probability map? Why don't you post that as well?

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

You probably should have checked that yourself before using that to make a case for your argument. A ten percent chance of 4 inches of snow does not in any shape or form agree with you saying that the HPC is suggesting a major NYC snowfall. Sorry

[Tiburon]

Let me put it this way. Snow comes from the 700mb level of the atmosphere. To get nice fluffy snowflakes, it's best to have the 700mb temperature be in the -15C range, and have those pretty little snowflakes move down to the 850mb level, which is about -9C, then down to the surface. If any level below 700mb is above freezing, melting occurs. If the melting level is big enough (thick enough) or close enough to the surface, you get rain or freezing rain. If it's a small area high enough up (usually 850mb or higher), you get sleet. Sleet is the red-headed stepchild of winter weather precip.

According to the 0Z NAM (and the 12Z GFS, and the 18Z GFS, and pretty much every other model out there), you get warm air advection and temperatures above freezing clear up to the 700mb level. This is what happens when a low level low pressure passes to your west, as counter-clockwise flow means you get southerly, warm winds.

At BEST, even WITH cold air damming, you get sleet. Miserable sleet.

[MJO812]

If you truly believe that this setup gets YOU a snowstorm around NYC, you should probably spend more time reading and less time posting to learn why this isn't the case.

The only way that I can see a snowstorm from this setup is if the low transfer to the coast. The GFS had that for a couple of runs.

The GFS and NAM both produce an insanely strong low that seems unlikely to occur...as for the NAM having the overrunning snows well north initially, that could be right or wrong, I don't know..it depends ultimately how much the SE ridge fires...given the PV at 60-66 hours I think the NAM may be too far north with the snows.

There is a high up north on the Nam. I think the Nam is too far north.

2/25/10

I had non sticking snow for several hours in the morning hours.

[Guest stormchaser]

Who said specifically NYC?

You when you were saying you believe the 850 line will stay south of NYC. Lol.......

[Edge Weather]

No, a stronger high pressure building in to the north of the system would push the low to the south of us and likewise build that cold air down more from the north. Not saying it will happen, just saying it is a possibility that I think is real. I believe HPC feels this as well.

That is fine, your entitled to your opinion.

Still even if the low is 100 miles further south that does not mean the 850 line will be 100 miles further south respectively. That is still a low cutting up the MW, pumping up the SE ridge ahead of it. There is little to suggest that there would be any coastal redevelopment which is what you would need to be correct here.

[Tiburon]

Did you see their snow probability map? Why don't you post that as well?

Sure. For extreme NW NJ a 40% chance of seeing 4" of snow, and for places like NYC, ABE, etc, a 10% chance. You're banking on overrunning in an eroding cold air mass on screaming southerly winds...I don't like your chances.

[Guest stormchaser]

I don't know guys. I saw some really positive things here, many of which we have seen many times this winter already. Just like the last storm that looked like it had no cold air source at this point prior to the storm, we are already seeing signs of both the high pressure building in from the west through south Canada and building a new High pressure center to the north of us in Canada. This was not evident on the prior run of the NAM. I fully expect this trend to continue and for it to build in more with each consecutive model run. This is pretty much what happened with the previous storm. It looked this far out like there was no high pressure in a favorable place last time too, but one managed to find its way there, and it is already starting to happen on this model run. You can't just ignore the past history of this winter. You have to weigh into consideration that the cold has largely been winning this year, and it is likely to do so again this time, one way or other. To deny this reality may be a forecasting mistake. This is also pretty much evident in HPC's analysis of the situation as well.

And when you are writing things like this with your location posted as Warren, NJ one would assume you are talking for this area, as this is an NYC/PHL thread.

[Edge Weather]

This only goes through 7pm on Tuesday. So, a chance of up to 4 inches of snow before the main storm even heads this way does indeed back up what they say quite nicely. It fits their discussion quite well. What makes you think I did not already check this?

http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif

You probably should have checked that yourself before using that to make a case for your argument. A ten percent chance of 4 inches of snow does not in any shape or form agree with you saying that the HPC is suggesting a major NYC snowfall. Sorry

[Guest stormchaser]

This only goes through 7pm on Tuesday. So, a chance of up to 4 inches of snow before the main storm even heads this way does indeed back up what they say quite nicely. It fits their discussion quite well. What makes you think I did not already check this?

When the main storm heads this way it is even WARMER. Day 3 is when we get the ovverunning which is the band of snow they are talking about setting up.

[jrodd321]

Remember when this was supposed to only give snow to DC south 2 days ago? Gotta love Nina's.

[MJO812]

it BLOWS

I agree.

Remember when this was supposed to only give snow to DC south 2 days ago? Gotta love Nina's.

You remember when the Euro and GFS had this as a coastal.

[allman15]

Cant win em all

[/quote

E A G LES ]';

[Guest stormchaser]

This only goes through 7pm on Tuesday. So, a chance of up to 4 inches of snow before the main storm even heads this way does indeed back up what they say quite nicely. It fits their discussion quite well. What makes you think I did not already check this?

And it goes through Wed. if im not mistaken, so again I am really not sure where you are coming from here.

[tombo82685]

can we cut the bashing one another and talk about what the gfs has for this storm or atleast the weekend event.

[Guest stormchaser]

can we cut the bashing one another and talk about what the gfs has for this storm or atleast the weekend event.

No one is bashing at all, just discussing.

[Sundog]

If by north of the Mason Dixon line they meant the Canadian border, then why even use that delineation? They said Mason Dixon because they expect that to be the rain/snow cutoff, ergo NYC sees snow according to them. Was that so hard?

[Guest stormchaser]

Anyway back to the weather....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_048l.gif

If we had any sort of blocking we could get that 1038 MB high to hang around longer. Unfortunately......

[Alpha5]

Anyway back to the weather....

http://www.nco.ncep....fs_pcp_048l.gif

If we had any sort of blocking we could get that 1038 MB high to hang around longer. Unfortunately......

Still have a strong PV rotating around Eastern Canada...all that confluence is going to make it hard for a storm to get very far north before being sheared out to the east

[Grothar]

can we cut the bashing one another and talk about what the gfs has for this storm or atleast the weekend event.

Tombo, please stop posting in this thread and come over to the LV thread. These idiots can sit and argue until they are blue in the face on who is going to get a 96 storm event or another Boxing Day event. I am interested in your description of the model runs and really appreciate the time you spend doing this no matter what the outcome is. Thanks

[Guest stormchaser]

Tombo, please stop posting in this thread and come over to the LV thread. These idiots can sit and argue until they are blue in the face on who is going to get a 96 storm event or another Boxing Day event. I am interested in your description of the model runs and really appreciate the time you spend doing this no matter what the outcome is. Thanks

LOL, who ever said this was going to be a 96 storm.

[jrodd321]

Still have a strong PV rotating around Eastern Canada...all that confluence is going to make it hard for a storm to get very far north before being sheared out to the east

Meh. I remember hearing that same crap, even from mets, right before the VDay storm where we weree forecast 2 feet 3 days out. And bam that low plowed RIGHT through the high.

[Allsnow]

the gfs is .25+ of snow for phl and nyc for the front running preciep