2/1-4 Potential Part II

[sferic]

We've become so use to the ever growing snowpack that anything that can erode it is frightful.

But, I too will take a cold rain with mid 30's over a 12 -18 hour stretch with temps in the mid 40's to low 50's with that snow eating fog which eats away so, so fast.

Yeah we'll lose some this week; ideally a good front thumping would be a fair sacrifice in preparation for the next bonafide threat.

I guess we all see those huge icebergs in our shopping centers, our backyard fences filled at the highest with snow than ever before seen heights.

I think we'll enjoy quite a February but let's be realistic, storms will head to our west; let's not get depressed if we lose a little.

We're experiencing history in the making, enjoy the ride.

[Edge Weather]

John,

Do you really this strongly disagree with HPC's assessment of the potential with this storm? Do you not see the high pressure building in across southern Canada and a new high building in to our north in Canada that could easily push this thing another 100 miles south?

Didn't somebody lose a job last storm making bets like this?

[Guest stormchaser]

Didn't somebody lose a job last storm making bets like this?

Hah, yea me. Well not literally. But yes do not make bets like that unless you really do want to chew on a hat. Which i think we would all really need to see proof of that occuring.

[Thunder Road]

it's a lakes cutter, not a coastal.

last week's discussion was centered around whether or not there was enough cold air for a coastal to bring snow. this weeks it's a GLC. please stop saying it's going to be a big storm simply because the last storm yada yada

all I hear is when i read some of these posts

[Edge Weather]

With a major winter storm North of the Mason/Dixon line. Did you not see that?

I read the HPC dicussion, seems like they fully recognize this to be a lakes cutter.

[pythium]

from alein weather.comSother Dith: I expect 40-50 inches up the I 95 coridor from Balt to nyc with thundersnow and snowados and 8-10 inches per hour rates...the lunar equinox coupled with the solar wamhieghts will initiate globular banding...thanks

[Guest stormchaser]

With a major winter storm North of the Mason/Dixon line. Did you not see that?

Apparently not ..... please point that out to me?

[Ralph Wiggum]

Unlike "the other storms this winter", we have virtually zero guidance even suggesting what you are saying.

With the prior storms, the op runs would usually be bleak but the indiv ens would at least have members showing a positive outcome. We have nothing even close this time.

Let the midwest get their historic snowstorm and let's prep for the weekend system which has some op and individ ens support.

I don't know guys. I saw some really positive things here, many of which we have seen many times this winter already. Just like the last storm that looked like it had no cold air source at this point prior to the storm, we are already seeing signs of both the high pressure building in from the west through south Canada and building a new High pressure center to the north of us in Canada. This was not evident on the prior run of the NAM. I fully expect this trend to continue and for it to build in more with each consecutive model run. This is pretty much what happened with the previous storm. It looked this far out like there was no high pressure in a favorable place last time too, but one managed to find its way there, and it is already starting to happen on this model run. You can't just ignore the past history of this winter. You have to weigh into consideration that the cold has largely been winning this year, and it is likely to do so again this time, one way or other. To deny this reality may be a forecasting mistake. This is also pretty much evident in HPC's analysis of the situation as well.

[MJO812]

this is a crushing though.

I guess it's their turn.

Cold air damming perhaps..... Prolonged frozen event? Not so likely it seems. This really is the MW's storm this time around. I for one would be hoping that the storm stays so far west (a more amplified solution) so we dont really ever see anything from it, even if that means we do not get the overrunning. To me, it seems more overrunning=further east= more rain in the end solution. Let them have this one and let's continue to hope for next weekend to evolve from the remaining energy behind this system.

The whole area will see frozen precip at the start.So all in all, it's not a lose.

Didn't somebody lose a job last storm making bets like this?

I read the HPC dicussion, seems like they fully recognize this to be a lakes cutter.

I think they are going with a colder and snowier solution.

[Thunder Road]

granted, the NAM is probably over-phased at the end of its range, and I wouldn't be surprised if over the next 48 hours this shifted 100 miles southeast. But 100 miles south of Mansfield, Ohio is not an EC snowstorm, and it never will be!

[MJO812]

from alein weather.comSother Dith: I expect 40-50 inches up the I 95 coridor from Balt to nyc with thundersnow and snowados and 8-10 inches per hour rates...the lunar equinox coupled with the solar wamhieghts will initiate globular banding...thanks

Roger Smith?

Let the midwest get their historic snowstorm and let's prep for the weekend system which has some op and individ ens support.

Reloading pattern FTW

[Guest stormchaser]

I guess it's their turn.

The whole area will see frozen precip at the start.So all in all, it's not a lose.

I think they are going with a colder and snowier solution.

No, definitely not a complete loss, and we would be foolish to think that every storm will bury us even in a winter like this. But the MW keep this one and ill start hoping for next weekend.

[Edge Weather]

It is the 2nd paragraph from the bottom.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011

..WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS TO THE

NORTHEAST THIS WEEK...

LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN A STRONG MEAN RIDGE FROM

THE ERN PAC NWD THRU THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN SHAPE

OCCUR AS SHRTWVS ROUND THE RIDGE. ASSOC POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES

ARE FCST TO BE STRONGEST OFF THE PAC NW COAST BY D+8. FAIRLY

CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE...

GUIDANCE DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF FROM ERN CANADA SWWD.

ONE OR MORE INSTANCES OF FLOW SEPARATION WITHIN THIS MEAN TROF

WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO TYPICAL DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES.

WITH THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE PLAINS TUE

ONWARD... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAD BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD

AND CONTINUITY CHANGES RECENTLY BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS APPEAR TO

BE STARTING TO CONVERGE TOWARD A COMMON SOLN THOUGH SOME

TRACK/TIMING DIFFS REMAIN. GFS RUNS HAVE STABILIZED OVER THE PAST

DAY WHILE THE 12Z AND NEW 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE ADJUSTED STEADILY

EWD FROM THE 00Z/28 RUN THAT HAD DEFINED THE WRN SIDE OF THE SOLN

ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE SPREAD

OVER THE ERN STATES AND BY EARLY THU THE CANADIAN BECOMES SLOWER

THAN THE GUIDANCE AVERAGE OFF THE NERN COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TRACK/TIMING

AND ALSO FOLLOW PREVIOUS CONTINUITY EXTREMELY WELL... SO THEIR

SOLNS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

WITH UPSTREAM FLOW THE GFS COMPARES LEAST FAVORABLY TO ENSEMBLE

CLUSTERING AND MOST OTHER MODELS. THE GFS FEEDS A LOW CONFIDENCE

WRN CANADA SHRTWV INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER THE WEST BY WED AND IS

RELATIVELY FAST/AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE

CNTRL-ERN STATES BY DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT. BY LATE IN THE FCST THE

GEFS MEAN ALSO BECOMES RATHER AMPLIFIED WITH ITS ERN CONUS TROF.

TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE ERN PAC MEAN RIDGE FAVOR HOLDING

DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES FARTHER WWD THAN INDICATED BY

THE GEFS MEAN AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY

HOW FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SWRN CONUS/NWRN MEXICO FAVORS

GREATER WEIGHTING OF ENSEMBLE MEANS VERSUS ONE INDIVIDUAL MODEL

RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARES BETTER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS THAN THE GFS

BUT THE ECMWF MAY BECOME TOO DEEP WITH ITS NWRN MEXICO CLOSED LOW

BY DAY 6 FRI IN LIGHT OF SOME FCST HGT ANOMALIES REACHING 3-4

STDEVS BELOW NORMAL.

THE DAYS 3-5 TUE-THU FCST STARTS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO REFLECT PREFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM

AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS SOLN COMPARES WELL TO

OTHER GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPLE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING

OVER THE CNTRL-WRN STATES. DAYS 6-7 FRI-SAT USE A 70/30 BLEND OF

THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN/00Z ECMWF AS THE ECMWF MEAN COMPARES BETTER TO

TELECONNECTIONS THAN THE GEFS MEAN. MINORITY WEIGHTING OF THE 00Z

ECMWF PROVIDES A LITTLE ADDED DETAIL WHILE DOWNPLAYING ITS LOWER

CONFIDENCE ATTRIBUTES.

MORNING PRELIM UPDATES BLEND EQUAL AMOUNTS OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS SIMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN THE SAME PATTERNS

OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT BLENDS.

...AFTERNOON UPDATE...

NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY

4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z

CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON

FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS.

EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND

NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY

RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY.

WITH MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN THRU THE PLAINS WITH TEH

COLDEST AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES EXTREME COLD WILL SET INTO

THE PLAINS WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NEAR OR BELOW 30 DEGREE

DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL YIELDING A HUGE AREA OF NEAR AND BELOW ZERO

TEMPERATURES READINGS DAY AND NIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT

BASIN AND TO THE WEST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL

INTO LATE WEEK.

RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

Ñ

Last Updated: 129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

Apparently not ..... please point that out to me?

[SnowGoose69]

NAM =

[Guest stormchaser]

It is the 2nd paragraph from the bottom.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011

..WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS TO THE

NORTHEAST THIS WEEK...

LATEST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEANS MAINTAIN A STRONG MEAN RIDGE FROM

THE ERN PAC NWD THRU THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SOME CHANGES IN SHAPE

OCCUR AS SHRTWVS ROUND THE RIDGE. ASSOC POSITIVE HGT ANOMALIES

ARE FCST TO BE STRONGEST OFF THE PAC NW COAST BY D+8. FAIRLY

CONSISTENT WITH TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE...

GUIDANCE DISPLAYS AN ELONGATED MEAN TROF FROM ERN CANADA SWWD.

ONE OR MORE INSTANCES OF FLOW SEPARATION WITHIN THIS MEAN TROF

WILL CONTINUE TO ADD TO TYPICAL DETAIL UNCERTAINTIES.

WITH THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FCST TO TRACK NEWD FROM THE PLAINS TUE

ONWARD... MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAD BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT SPREAD

AND CONTINUITY CHANGES RECENTLY BUT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS APPEAR TO

BE STARTING TO CONVERGE TOWARD A COMMON SOLN THOUGH SOME

TRACK/TIMING DIFFS REMAIN. GFS RUNS HAVE STABILIZED OVER THE PAST

DAY WHILE THE 12Z AND NEW 00Z ECMWF RUNS HAVE ADJUSTED STEADILY

EWD FROM THE 00Z/28 RUN THAT HAD DEFINED THE WRN SIDE OF THE SOLN

ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE THE UKMET IS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE SPREAD

OVER THE ERN STATES AND BY EARLY THU THE CANADIAN BECOMES SLOWER

THAN THE GUIDANCE AVERAGE OFF THE NERN COAST. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS PROVIDE A GOOD COMPROMISE FOR TRACK/TIMING

AND ALSO FOLLOW PREVIOUS CONTINUITY EXTREMELY WELL... SO THEIR

SOLNS ARE RECOMMENDED FOR THIS SYSTEM.

WITH UPSTREAM FLOW THE GFS COMPARES LEAST FAVORABLY TO ENSEMBLE

CLUSTERING AND MOST OTHER MODELS. THE GFS FEEDS A LOW CONFIDENCE

WRN CANADA SHRTWV INTO THE MEAN TROF OVER THE WEST BY WED AND IS

RELATIVELY FAST/AMPLIFIED WITH ENERGY EJECTING ACROSS THE

CNTRL-ERN STATES BY DAYS 5-7 THU-SAT. BY LATE IN THE FCST THE

GEFS MEAN ALSO BECOMES RATHER AMPLIFIED WITH ITS ERN CONUS TROF.

TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVE TO THE ERN PAC MEAN RIDGE FAVOR HOLDING

DOWNSTREAM NEGATIVE HGT ANOMALIES FARTHER WWD THAN INDICATED BY

THE GEFS MEAN AT THAT TIME. MEANWHILE UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACTLY

HOW FLOW WILL EVOLVE OVER THE SWRN CONUS/NWRN MEXICO FAVORS

GREATER WEIGHTING OF ENSEMBLE MEANS VERSUS ONE INDIVIDUAL MODEL

RUN. THE 00Z ECMWF COMPARES BETTER TO ENSEMBLE MEANS THAN THE GFS

BUT THE ECMWF MAY BECOME TOO DEEP WITH ITS NWRN MEXICO CLOSED LOW

BY DAY 6 FRI IN LIGHT OF SOME FCST HGT ANOMALIES REACHING 3-4

STDEVS BELOW NORMAL.

THE DAYS 3-5 TUE-THU FCST STARTS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO REFLECT PREFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEM

AFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS SOLN COMPARES WELL TO

OTHER GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPLE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING

OVER THE CNTRL-WRN STATES. DAYS 6-7 FRI-SAT USE A 70/30 BLEND OF

THE 12Z ECMWF MEAN/00Z ECMWF AS THE ECMWF MEAN COMPARES BETTER TO

TELECONNECTIONS THAN THE GEFS MEAN. MINORITY WEIGHTING OF THE 00Z

ECMWF PROVIDES A LITTLE ADDED DETAIL WHILE DOWNPLAYING ITS LOWER

CONFIDENCE ATTRIBUTES.

MORNING PRELIM UPDATES BLEND EQUAL AMOUNTS OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWF

ENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS SIMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN THE SAME PATTERNS

OF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT BLENDS.

...AFTERNOON UPDATE...

NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY

4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z

CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON

FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS.

EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND

NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY

RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY.

WITH MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING DOWN THRU THE PLAINS WITH TEH

COLDEST AIR DAMMED AGAINST THE ROCKIES EXTREME COLD WILL SET INTO

THE PLAINS WITH NEGATIVE ANOMALIES NEAR OR BELOW 30 DEGREE

DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL YIELDING A HUGE AREA OF NEAR AND BELOW ZERO

TEMPERATURES READINGS DAY AND NIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

CONSIDERABLE COLD AIR WILL SPILL OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT

BASIN AND TO THE WEST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL

INTO LATE WEEK.

RAUSCH/ROSENSTEIN

Ñ

Last Updated: 129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011

Unless i am reading it incorrectly it says nothing about a major snowstorm.

[tombo82685]

NAM =

lol is that showing crumbs, or just a complete mess lol

[Thunder Road]

NAM =

cheese?

[Ralph Wiggum]

With a major winter storm North of the Mason/Dixon line. Did you not see that?

There are a lot of places to the north of the m/d line...maybe they were referring to New Hampshire :-)

[Edge Weather]

The 0 850 line moved 100 miles south now as you say would be a massive snowstorm for many people here. The Zero 850 line is only 100 miles north of NYC on this run already.

granted, the NAM is probably over-phased at the end of its range, and I wouldn't be surprised if over the next 48 hours this shifted 100 miles southeast. But 100 miles south of Mansfield, Ohio is not an EC snowstorm, and it never will be!

[Guest stormchaser]

With a major winter storm North of the Mason/Dixon line. Did you not see that?

The HPC discussion never says anything of this sorts. I am not sure where you are seeing this. They said there would be a band setting up there, but not anything about a major winter storm.

[wxologist]

Analogs can give a forecaster yet another tool in his arsenal to help create a thorough assesment of the synoptic playing field. Personally, analog forecasting takes what already has occurred from the positioning and strengths of the specific physical paramenters that drive the sensible weather and compares them to the current set up. Too many times, we worry about how the models solve various differentials to arrive at a solution. We are assuming there are absolutes in the atmosphere...and there most certainly are. But thinking in these absolutes as to how the atmosphere WILL play itself out and flipping forecasts everytime a new Z run comes out is absurd. Analyzing a pattern and synoptic similarities from a few days out may prove more beneficial than relying on absolutes from a particular model's guidance. No, I do not have concrete data to confirm my theory, but just having observed how analogs play out, these are very valuable tools to astute forcasters.

This is very well said Caveman. It is definitely about...has this occurred before (have similar impacts occurred with what I'm thinking based on this synoptic setup) which can result in confidence in a forecaster's forecast. It's also definitely not about what analog is at the top, sometimes the best analog is not the best analog for the situation. Statistics can only bring you so far...the analogs need to be analyzed (one field can make a good analog in all fields a poor overall analog). At that time the meteorologist, who is usually smarter than both model output and statistics, can determine which impacts are reasonable. But it is definitely not about using the analog as the forecast...its about impact and impact potential. This analog/event has occurred...what happened in that event...and I think this upcoming event will be similar...how can I make my forecast better so that the public is better prepared.

[SACRUS]

cheese?

crack, and I agree. Onto the gfs.

[hudsonvalley21]

from alein weather.comSother Dith: I expect 40-50 inches up the I 95 coridor from Balt to nyc with thundersnow and snowados and 8-10 inches per hour rates...the lunar equinox coupled with the solar wamhieghts will initiate globular banding...thanks

That alein better put down the crack pipe

[Guest stormchaser]

The 0 850 line moved 100 miles south now as you say would be a massive snowstorm for many people here. The Zero 850 line is only 100 miles north of NYC on this run already.

Do you really think with such a jacked up low cutting into the GL that the 850 line is going to remain south of NYC?

[Edge Weather]

What? It says expect a broad heavy snow swath north of the Mason/Dixon line? That is not a snow storm? What?

Unless i am reading it incorrectly it says nothing about a major snowstorm.

[Tiburon]

Hah, yea me. Well not literally. But yes do not make bets like that unless you really do want to chew on a hat. Which i think we would all really need to see proof of that occuring.

If I get 6" of sleet + snow--any combination, I will post a picture on the board of me literally chewing on a hat.

With a major winter storm North of the Mason/Dixon line. Did you not see that?

You're reading what you WANT to read. Pittsburgh's north of the Mason/Dixon line. Does PIT getting a "major winter storm" mean you get one? Please.

This is from HPC's discussion:

THE DAYS 3-5 TUE-THU FCST STARTS WITH A BLEND OF THE 00Z GEFS/12Z

ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS TO REFLECT PREFERENCES WITH THE SYSTEMAFFECTING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS SOLN COMPARES WELL TOOTHER GUIDANCE IN PRINCIPLE WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDINGOVER THE CNTRL-WRN STATES. DAYS 6-7 FRI-SAT USE A 70/30 BLEND OFTHE 12Z ECMWF MEAN/00Z ECMWF AS THE ECMWF MEAN COMPARES BETTER TOTELECONNECTIONS THAN THE GEFS MEAN. MINORITY WEIGHTING OF THE 00ZECMWF PROVIDES A LITTLE ADDED DETAIL WHILE DOWNPLAYING ITS LOWERCONFIDENCE ATTRIBUTES. MORNING PRELIM UPDATES BLEND EQUAL AMOUNTS OF 00Z GFS AND ECMWFENSEMBLE MEANS. THIS SIMPLIFICATION RESULTS IN THE SAME PATTERNSOF THE PREVIOUS OVERNIGHT BLENDS.EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST ANDNORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTOWEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVYRAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND

WEDNESDAY.

Now look at their maps:

If you truly believe that this setup gets YOU a snowstorm around NYC, you should probably spend more time reading and less time posting to learn why this isn't the case.

[Thunder Road]

The 0 850 line moved 100 miles south now as you say would be a massive snowstorm for many people here. The Zero 850 line is only 100 miles north of NYC on this run already.

the intensity and geographic coverage of the WAA is not dependent on the exact track of the sfc low.

shifting one element south doesn't shift everything south. It's not like Louisville all of a sudden is in Tennessee....

[SnowGoose69]

crack, and I agree. Onto the gfs.

The GFS and NAM both produce an insanely strong low that seems unlikely to occur...as for the NAM having the overrunning snows well north initially, that could be right or wrong, I don't know..it depends ultimately how much the SE ridge fires...given the PV at 60-66 hours I think the NAM may be too far north with the snows.

[Thunder Road]

crack, and I agree. Onto the gfs.

a good slice of cheese can be just as addicting

[Guest stormchaser]

If I get 6" of sleet + snow--any combination, I will post a picture on the board of me literally chewing on a hat.

You're reading what you WANT to read. Pittsburgh's north of the Mason/Dixon line. Does PIT getting a "major winter storm" mean you get one? Please.

This is from HPC's discussion:

Now look at their maps:

If you truly believe that this setup gets YOU a snowstorm around NYC, you should probably spend more time reading and less time posting to learn why this isn't the case.

Thank you, to honestly believe the HPC is saying this is a major snowstorm for NYC or thereabouts is absurd. They said they see a band of heavy snow north of the mason dixon line, HOW does that translate to major snowstorm for NYC?