GD0815 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i think you should post this every 3 hours so i can stop reading those ridiculous statements. Also, people really need to stop saying "every storm this winter that was supposed to be rain turned into snow" or whatever. You can't compare this pattern to the pattern earlier this winter or even earlier this week. This is a completely different setup..we have a southwest flow at all levels of the atmosphere. There's no blocking, the PNA is not oriented correctly, the southeast ridge is given a chance to flex a bit for the first time this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 This is going to get ugly fast for the east coast here on the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i think you should post this every 3 hours so i can stop reading those ridiculous statements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 icy icy Ice for most of PA and NWNJ on the front. Snow to the north. Don't know where that low goes past 72 hours yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2011 Author Share Posted January 30, 2011 For whatever reason the NAM has the overunning snows way north...no other model is even close to that. EURO, GFS and GGEM all have 3-5" from the overunning area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I could care less what the NAM shows at 66 hours. I am still trying to find out what mechanism creates such a powerful low in the lower midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Except for the GEM, it looks like an old fashion Ohio Valley low. Maybe the models can get colder in the next few runs, but at this point it looks bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Nam still has some front end stuff for the area. The freezing line is right under or through the area through this entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Nam still has some front end stuff for the area. The freezing line is right under or through the area through this entire run. Looks like mostly ice with only a coating of snow, however. Nasty storm...the one saving grace is that it's starting to look as if the primary will track so far west that all we'll see is breezy rain showers with the cold front instead of flooding downpours after the initial overrunning snow/ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The Nam still has some front end stuff for the area. The freezing line is right under or through the area through this entire run. Still have to go with the trends this year - the last 2 days before the event - colder further east solutions plus the cold air damming is being underestimated along with the thick snowcover and colder then average water temps = prolonged freezing event north of mason dixon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 also what might help. If you get a glorified lake cutter that may pop a weak -nao to help with the energy left behind and what happens with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Agreed, run this thing through the lakes, dry slot us, and set up the next storm. Also, the rain will wash some salt away so the next snow sticks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still have to go with the trends this year - the last 2 days before the event - colder further east solutions plus the cold air damming is being underestimated along with the thick snowcover and colder then average water temps = prolonged freezing event north of mason dixon... I can see that happening. Lets just hope this storm trends so far west that our area doesn't see a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I agree mitch. Our key is the front end thumping and hopefully we can pull a moderate snowfall before we warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I can see that happening. Lets just hope this storm trends so far west that our area doesn't see a lot of rain. i would take a cold rain anyday. Then the torch thats going to hit you on the nam and gfs... A cold rain hurts the rain, but doesn't destroy it like a torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Agreed, run this thing through the lakes, dry slot us, and set up the next storm. Also, the rain will wash some salt away so the next snow sticks better I don't know about your area but tonight's light snow event easily coated all side streets. No salt problem here which is weird because usually there is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Still have to go with the trends this year - the last 2 days before the event - colder further east solutions plus the cold air damming is being underestimated along with the thick snowcover and colder then average water temps = prolonged freezing event north of mason dixon... Ugh... please refer to earthlight's post. This setup is NOTHING like the setup we have had with any other storm. Never were any of the other storms supposed to be GL/MW cutters. To reasonably expect this to all of a sudden be a major storm for the east would be ridiculous given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't know about your area but tonight's light snow event easily coated all side streets. No salt problem here which is weird because usually there is. I was thinking more the main streets, but it was more of a joke than anything else. I do think its best to just take this one on the chin and reset. I like the pattern after this midweek system and I am growing very fond of the energy left behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 i would take a cold rain anyday. Then the torch thats going to hit you on the nam and gfs... A cold rain hurts the rain, but doesn't destroy it like a torch. Tom, are the dewpoints high along with the surface temps? High dewpoints really kill a snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I don't know guys. I saw some really positive things here, many of which we have seen many times this winter already. Just like the last storm that looked like it had no cold air source at this point prior to the storm, we are already seeing signs of both the high pressure building in from the west through south Canada and building a new High pressure center to the north of us in Canada. This was not evident on the prior run of the NAM. I fully expect this trend to continue and for it to build in more with each consecutive model run. This is pretty much what happened with the previous storm. It looked this far out like there was no high pressure in a favorable place last time too, but one managed to find its way there, and it is already starting to happen on this model run. You can't just ignore the past history of this winter. You have to weigh into consideration that the cold has largely been winning this year, and it is likely to do so again this time, one way or other. To deny this reality may be a forecasting mistake. This is also pretty much evident in HPC's analysis of the situation as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I could care less what the NAM shows at 66 hours. I am still trying to find out what mechanism creates such a powerful low in the lower midwest. did you check out the baroclinic zone? its just a tad impressive lol this could go down as one of the most paralyzing storms in the MW in a long time, esp if the CHI-DET corridor gets destroyed as most models are now showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 did you check out the baroclinic zone? its just a tad impressive lol this could go down as one of the most paralyzing storms in the MW in a long time, esp if the CHI-DET corridor gets destroyed as most models are now showing. I think I heard that some parts of the midwest haven't seen a 4+ storm yet this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Ugh... please refer to earthlight's post. This setup is NOTHING like the setup we have had with any other storm. Never were any of the other storms supposed to be GL/MW cutters. To reasonably expect this to all of a sudden be a major storm for the east would be ridiculous given the setup. Never said it was going to be a major storm - just said the cold air damming will be prolonged --those cold fresh highs will hang on longer then expected at the lower levels --- whether or not precip is falling and how much is another issue.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Tom, are the dewpoints high along with the surface temps? High dewpoints really kill a snowpack. i can't tell on the nam, its out of its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiburon Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6 to 12 includes all non ZR accumulations. If I see 6" of ANYTHING other than snowpack water running down my storm drain, I'll literally eat my hat. The 0Z NAM has me at 0.02" QPF as snow, then 0.04" of ZR, IF I'm lucky, followed by another 0.31" of plain rain. I'm sorry if people just aren't getting this, but short of a little overrunning that gets washed away, you DON'T get snow in PHL/NYC if your H85 low is centered over Toledo, OH. I don't care what the seasonal trend is, you have NO block, you have a ****ty NAO state, and this thing is cutting to Erie. Show me HOW this thing gets to the coastline and up. NYC does slightly better, they get 0.08" as snow, rest as plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HPC could not disagree with you more. Ugh... please refer to earthlight's post. This setup is NOTHING like the setup we have had with any other storm. Never were any of the other storms supposed to be GL/MW cutters. To reasonably expect this to all of a sudden be a major storm for the east would be ridiculous given the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I think I heard that some parts of the midwest haven't seen a 4+ storm yet this season. i dont know, but of course most storms have been on the east coast, so no big storms for most out there although DET and CHI have had >4 this is a crushing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Never said it was going to be a major storm - just said the cold air damming will be prolonged -- whether or not precip is falling and how much is another issue.... Cold air damming perhaps..... Prolonged frozen event? Not so likely it seems. This really is the MW's storm this time around. I for one would be hoping that the storm stays so far west (a more amplified solution) so we dont really ever see anything from it, even if that means we do not get the overrunning. To me, it seems more overrunning=further east= more rain in the end solution. Let them have this one and let's continue to hope for next weekend to evolve from the remaining energy behind this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 If I see 6" of ANYTHING other than snowpack water running down my storm drain, I'll literally eat my hat. Didn't somebody lose a job last storm making bets like this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 HPC could not disagree with you more. I read the HPC dicussion, seems like they fully recognize this to be a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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