2/1-4 Potential Part II

[tombo82685]

I hope we get some decent front end snow and then a dryslot. At least if we get that, we don't have to worry about the heavy rain.

i think you would rather have the rain...the dryslot would be accompanied by the warmer temps, which can eat away at a snowpack faster than rain can

[earthlight]

20" measured in multiple areas, here....some melting today as expected, but all in all the glacier builds from the bottom up. You need to get on this next threat pronto and add some thoughts...

I think the setup has the potential to produce some awesome overrunning snow which could amount to an advisory level event. There's a good signal for low level convergence and theres a nice setup for overrunning over the dome of high pressure. For me, this is interesting because I haven't seen anything like this in a while. For those expecting a significant event or a coastal event with frontogenic banding from heaven, they should probably take a two week winter's nap.

For me, it's cool to add to the seasonal totals...we're making a trek towards the #1 winter of all time.

[Sundog]

i think you would rather have the rain...the dryslot would be accompanied by the warmer temps, which can eat away at a snowpack faster than rain can

There will probably be a sweet spot where temps stay in the 30's and precip is just to the north. Of course the true sweet spot is 100 miles north of there.

[earthlight]

classic gfs supression with the weekend threat, that thing comes up the coast, should be more white than wet, but coast will be tough without a 50/50 low to lock in the high.

Tons of changes need to occur there in order to get something up the coast. That's a severely elongated shortwave by 144 hours. But I do think there's some potential given the height field amplification over the plains.

[earthlight]

Also, people really need to stop saying "every storm this winter that was supposed to be rain turned into snow" or whatever. You can't compare this pattern to the pattern earlier this winter or even earlier this week. This is a completely different setup..we have a southwest flow at all levels of the atmosphere. There's no blocking, the PNA is not oriented correctly, the southeast ridge is given a chance to flex a bit for the first time this winter.

[dryslotted]

I think the setup has the potential to produce some awesome overrunning snow which could amount to an advisory level event. There's a good signal for low level convergence and theres a nice setup for overrunning over the dome of high pressure. For me, this is interesting because I haven't seen anything like this in a while. For those expecting a significant event or a coastal event with frontogenic banding from heaven, they should probably take a two week winter's nap.

For me, it's cool to add to the seasonal totals...we're making a trek towards the #1 winter of all time.

This is the quote of the day...

[TheTrials]

Tons of changes need to occur there in order to get something up the coast. That's a severely elongated shortwave by 144 hours. But I do think there's some potential given the height field amplification over the plains.

gfs is way to elongated, its owne ensembles are far more amplified as is the ecma and euro. That def. comes up especially with the PNA recovering. Hopefully the polar high is in the right spot.

[A-L-E-X]

I think the setup has the potential to produce some awesome overrunning snow which could amount to an advisory level event. There's a good signal for low level convergence and theres a nice setup for overrunning over the dome of high pressure. For me, this is interesting because I haven't seen anything like this in a while. For those expecting a significant event or a coastal event with frontogenic banding from heaven, they should probably take a two week winter's nap.

For me, it's cool to add to the seasonal totals...we're making a trek towards the #1 winter of all time.

No, THIS is the quote of the day

[nycsnow]

what do you guys think of that guy roger smith? lol

So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity). Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3

[CooL]

what do you guys think of that guy roger smith? lol

maybe someone hacked his account to make an attempt to create an emotional weenie high for the nyc forums?

[A-L-E-X]

You guys need to read Bluewave's excellent new thread about Texas cold leading to an overall cold February.

http://www.americanw...923#entry392923

There's a pretty strong signal right here. And the ever popular la nina analogs of 1917 and 1918 are involved.

[Bobby]

I'm not feeling very positive about the next storm - models seem to be going more west/wet instead of east - but I think maybe the wave after that comes up.

And they were doing that last week before the last snow dump

[mattinpa]

And they were doing that last week before the last snow dump

Yeah, but as earthlight said, it's not the exact same set up. Hope I'm wrong.

[CooL]

Yeah, but as earthlight said, it's not the exact same set up. Hope I'm wrong.

i know he hates this saying, but imo, I-95 threaded the needle for that storm.

[A-L-E-X]

i know he hates this saying, but imo, I-95 threaded the needle for that storm.

There seems to have been a lot of that this winter.

[green tube]

what do you guys think of that guy roger smith? lol

i remember a couple of years ago he made a similar call when no one else did.... and he was completely wrong.

other than that case, i have no idea of his success rate.

[Absolute Humidity]

what do you guys think of that guy roger smith? lol

I think there is a lot of merit in what he is saying, just take a look at his lunar data for the last bomb we all thought was going to be a soaker as well as the Jan 11 12 system. And sure, yes the next system has typical La Nina SWFE written all over it, but we must not lose sight that were not experiencing a typical La Nina winter. I would watch for the next 24 to 36hr model runs start to stringout the low a little futhur S and E as well as showing a juicier front end overrunning dump. Im thinking were looking at Philly to NYC 6 - 12" with 12+ north and west of the city plus a good sleet fest more so for areas South of the Raririan river, rt287 line, These areas I see getting 4" snow with 2"+ sleet accumulations some ZR and R primarily south of I195- totals not much over 6, but NYC N and W oughta do much better .

[TheTrials]

Here is the setup for the storm after our ice storm from the 18z gefs. This is pretty good actually. +PNA with Ridging extending into central canada and a nice cold flow down from canada. This can work and if it looks like this in 5 days, get excited.

[chubbs]

I am not very optimistic about mid-week system, particularly down here, conditions are too favorable for amplification in the miss. valley.which will bring warm air aloft. Next week end has a better shot and models are trending to a storm.

[Juliancolton]

Pretty intense looking out there.

[IsentropicLift]

Alot of the analogs show storms which set the stage for a few days down the road particular toadays 12z run which you guessed it had 1/3/96 as the #1 analog

[WeatherX]

Pretty intense looking out there.

Recon tonight and tomorrow into that beast....12Z and 0Z tomorrow models should have the data.

[Thunder Road]

I think there is a lot of merit in what he is saying, just take a look at his lunar data for the last bomb we all thought was going to be a soaker as well as the Jan 11 12 system. And sure, yes the next system has typical La Nina SWFE written all over it, but we must not lose sight that were not experiencing a typical La Nina winter. I would watch for the next 24 to 36hr model runs start to stringout the low a little futhur S and E as well as showing a juicier front end overrunning dump. Im thinking were looking at Philly to NYC 6 - 12" with 12+ north and west of the city plus a good sleet fest more so for areas South of the Raririan river, rt287 line, These areas I see getting 4" snow with 2"+ sleet accumulations some ZR and R primarily south of I195- totals not much over 6, but NYC N and W oughta do much better .

huh?

[isnice]

Alot of the analogs show storms which set the stage for a few days down the road particular toadays 12z run which you guessed it had 1/3/96 as the #1 analog

Those cips analogs change dramatically every day. A couple days ago, the #1 analog for this major cutter was 1996. They are given way too much credit than they deserve.

[Absolute Humidity]

huh?

6 to 12 includes all non ZR accumulations.

[Caveman]

Those cips analogs change dramatically every day. A couple days ago, the #1 analog for this major cutter was 1996. They are given way too much credit than they deserve.

Analogs can give a forecaster yet another tool in his arsenal to help create a thorough assesment of the synoptic playing field. Personally, analog forecasting takes what already has occurred from the positioning and strengths of the specific physical paramenters that drive the sensible weather and compares them to the current set up. Too many times, we worry about how the models solve various differentials to arrive at a solution. We are assuming there are absolutes in the atmosphere...and there most certainly are. But thinking in these absolutes as to how the atmosphere WILL play itself out and flipping forecasts everytime a new Z run comes out is absurd. Analyzing a pattern and synoptic similarities from a few days out may prove more beneficial than relying on absolutes from a particular model's guidance. No, I do not have concrete data to confirm my theory, but just having observed how analogs play out, these are very valuable tools to astute forcasters.

[LVblizzard]

0z NAM is colder with lower heights in the east through 48.

[ag3]

0z NAM is colder with lower heights in the east through 48.

Warms up at 60 and not much front end either:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20110130/00/nam_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

[Zir0b]

0z NAM is colder with lower heights in the east through 48.

things are about to get ugly. big time amplification happening after the southern plains.

[phlwx]

Warms up at 60 and not much front end either:

http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif

It shifted north between 12z and 0z with the front end.