ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 wait, you posted three pages back that the pattern going forward was no good, that winter may be over, and that the next storm is all rain. Hmmm...... i didnt post that...i just agreed with someone who posted that the pattern might break down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is 1-3/2-4 inches of snow for NYC then rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A 996mb low over Ohio at hour 90. Can't see how PHL south sees frozen with that low location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS is 1-3/2-4 inches of snow for NYC then rain. Yea the trend seems to be going more and more towards a GL cutter without redevelopment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I hope this solution doesn't verify. What a disaster if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 phl hits 50 this run on wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Going forward, this pattern has plenty left. Take one on the chin after the WAA snow this week, maybe get lucky this weekend, and then we will see where we are, I don't think its going to go from winner to stinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I had a dream that this storm happened and PHL hit 90F. Just sayin. I got problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I hope this solution doesn't verify. What a disaster if it does. I really don't foresee disastrous flooding out of this. No model has a major torch. The GFS is probably the warmest, topping out at ~40F. And it looks like we don't get in on the very heavy rain either. So while yes, we would lose most of our snowpack, I don't think we would see river or creek flooding, just backed-up storm drains and whatnot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I really don't foresee disastrous flooding out of this. No model has a major torch. The GFS is probably the warmest, topping out at ~40F. And it looks like we don't get in on the very heavy rain either. So while yes, we would lose most of our snowpack, I don't think we would see river or creek flooding, just backed-up storm drains and whatnot. gfs and euro are 45-50 for phl....around 45 for nyc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 gfs and euro are 45-50 for phl....around 45 for nyc. While Upton has mid 30's for a lot of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 phl hits 50 this run on wed. yikes. i just finished commenting how the GFS topped out at 40F. At 96, the sfc 10C line runs DC to Cape May. Does it surge in between hours? I won't know until the 3-hourly data comes out on Meteostar at 6:00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 you know I just checked 12z data on Meteostar, PNE only gets to 41 while PHL gets to 47. NYC only gets to 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What's up dudes. Took a few days off (relatively speaking, lol). Haven't looked too much into the threat, but this can still be an advisory level event with low level convergence well ahead of the WAA. How's everybody doing? Give me a state of the 'pack update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yikes. i just finished commenting how the GFS topped out at 40F. At 96, the sfc 10C line runs DC to Cape May. Does it surge in between hours? I won't know until the 3-hourly data comes out on Meteostar at 6:00. hr 99 50 kisses phl ...dc is 55...nyc is like 42-43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 While Upton has mid 30's for a lot of the area. Upton has the right idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What is he smoking?? Where is he getting that from? I'm not seeing anything that suggests that. Granted, things can change, but...wow... Probably smoking the same stuff these guys at HPC are. I would tend to believe that they have much more experience at interpreting models than you do. I guess I could be wrong about that assumption. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011 ..WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK... ...AFTERNOON UPDATE... NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY 4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS. EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Author Share Posted January 29, 2011 What's up dudes. Took a few days off (relatively speaking, lol). Haven't looked too much into the threat, but this can still be an advisory level event with low level convergence well ahead of the WAA. How's everybody doing? Give me a state of the 'pack update! Wondering about NEPA at this point. I thought this was going to be a slam dunk for us, now we could see the torch and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Probably smokinb the same stuff these guys at HPC are. I would tend to believe that they have much more experience at interpreting models than you do. I guess I could be wrong about that assumption. EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 129 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 01 2011 - 12Z SAT FEB 05 2011 ..WIDESPREAD MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THE PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS WEEK... ...AFTERNOON UPDATE... NEW 12Z GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF AFTER DAY 4 WED THAN PRIOR RUNS AND OTHER MODELS AND ITS ENS MEAN. 12Z CMC/UKMET AND ENS MEANS REMAIN PREFERRED. NO CHANGES TO AFTERNOON FINALS FROM PRIOR HPC PRELIM PROGS. EXPECT A BROAD HEAVY SNOW SWATH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST AND NORTHEAST NORTH OF THE OH RIVER AND MASON DIXON LINE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET COUPLING. HEAVY RAINS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. So are why your guys worrying. Well get ready for some more heavy snow. Can't wait!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Upton has the right idea and even that's on the high end of things-- most of our local mets are talking about highs of upper 20s to lower 30s for Wednesday. Meteorology not Modelology I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Give me a state of the 'pack update! i'd say snowcover is roughly 15" there's DNA from 7 different systems in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hey, nice to have you back. Looks like a winter wonderland out here. Nice whitening up of the snow cover out here this afternoon. Snowing pretty good right now. What's up dudes. Took a few days off (relatively speaking, lol). Haven't looked too much into the threat, but this can still be an advisory level event with low level convergence well ahead of the WAA. How's everybody doing? Give me a state of the 'pack update! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 What's up dudes. Took a few days off (relatively speaking, lol). Haven't looked too much into the threat, but this can still be an advisory level event with low level convergence well ahead of the WAA. How's everybody doing? Give me a state of the 'pack update! 20" measured in multiple areas, here....some melting today as expected, but all in all the glacier builds from the bottom up. You need to get on this next threat pronto and add some thoughts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Euro and GFS were like that with the last storm and look what happened. Lets hope the storm trends much weaker and lets also hope the storm transfers to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 John: about 16-18" on the ground, I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yes with the last storm my mom was supposed to get rain down in Asbury Park. Instead she got some sleet and oh about 15 inches of snow. Euro and GFS were like that with the last storm and look what happened. Lets hope the storm trends much weaker and lets also hope the storm transfers to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 classic gfs supression with the weekend threat, that thing comes up the coast, should be more white than wet, but coast will be tough without a 50/50 low to lock in the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The energy for this storm wont be ashore for another 24+ hours so expect things to get shaken up a bit when that happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm not feeling very positive about the next storm - models seem to be going more west/wet instead of east - but I think maybe the wave after that comes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I hope we get some decent front end snow and then a dryslot. At least if we get that, we don't have to worry about the heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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