MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is from Roger Smith. So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity). Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I'm actually really intrigued about the storm at day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is from Roger Smith. lol I was just about to repost that haha. We wish that would come true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 IF for some reason, Roger Smith is right with that prediction..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 just trying to do a little learning here....was looking at the 12z gfs 500mb charts....just using this as an example - b/c it's so far out, but is the 500mb charts from hour 360 and on, a good example of the blocking we want to see come back?? Seems to develop a 50/50 no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is from Roger Smith. What the heck is this crap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sorry but who is Roger Smith anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is from Roger Smith. what thread was this in??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 what thread was this in??? The one I just responded in on the main page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 sorry, one more dgex image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is from Roger Smith. So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity). Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone just posted that Roger's analysis agrees with what HPC is thinking LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 FWIW, JB thinks 4-8 inches of snow with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone just posted that Roger's analysis agrees with what HPC is thinking LOL Alex, that would be exactly what Northern Maryland got last February.... Back to Back HECS in a week. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest stormchaser Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If that analysis is anywhere near correct i will honestly run out into the snow in shorts until i am blue in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen Turner Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Alex, that would be exactly what Northern Maryland got last February.... Back to Back HECS in a week. LOL. that's exactly what the Jersey Shore got last February. we had a 2' blizzard and a 1' snowstorm 2 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Alex, that would be exactly what Northern Maryland got last February.... Back to Back HECS in a week. LOL. Yes it would. That is the only thing this winter has lacked (besides an ice storm, which we dont want anyway.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone just posted that Roger's analysis agrees with what HPC is thinking LOL What is he smoking?? Where is he getting that from? I'm not seeing anything that suggests that. Granted, things can change, but...wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The GEM amazingly seems to be the only model that is able to grasp the idea that the flow at 500mb is just too sheared in the Plains/TN Valley for a strong system...as does AccuWx LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 sorry, one more dgex image. now that storm would appear to have some good ratios with it...the SB Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 If that analysis is anywhere near correct i will honestly run out into the snow in shorts until i am blue in the face. that aint the only place you'll be blue-- purple is prolly more like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Someone just posted that Roger's analysis agrees with what HPC is thinking LOL if you actually shift the 12z GFS south 50 miles, then he may not be far off lol but i really doubt it would shift that much south without a -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 if you actually shift the 12z GFS south 50 miles, then he may not be far off lol More or less....this was probably all snow on the GFS at POU and certainly most of extreme N CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z gfs colder at 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 now that storm would appear to have some good ratios with it...the SB Blizzard wait, you posted three pages back that the pattern going forward was no good, that winter may be over, and that the next storm is all rain. Hmmm...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Good low-level convergence on the GFS at 66 and 72 hours...helps to explain the decent overrunning precip we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z gfs colder at 72 yes it is..also the core of the hP out west is a bit further east...need it MUCH more east though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 if you actually shift the 12z GFS south 50 miles, then he may not be far off lol but i really doubt it would shift that much south without a -NAO I guess stranger things have happened (quite often this winter), but I agree that it would be much harder without a negative NAO. Are we seeing some similarities to 93-94 when we also had a very positive NAO (its actually neutral right now I think) and still got a ton of winter storms? The models didnt do too well with those either, as I remember many of them were forecast to change to rain and that rarely happened-- especially later on in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 LOL...... being unemployed sucks : ( Yea i bit the big one with that. i was just kidding with you...i actually publicly backed your forecast....not saying you were gonna be right, just saying you were entitled to your opinion...as is everyone else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Best case scenario for this storm now is overrunning snow, then this thing cuts as far west as possible and dry slots us. That would be perfect, and then the end of next week's storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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