NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pretty much everything is on the table at this point. EURO is the warmest of all guidance. NAM looks ridiculously amplified. GFS argues for nice overunning snows. Where do we go from here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS much less amplified thru 54 compared to NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS much less amplified thru 54 compared to NAM. southern stream troughing phasing at 72 and it's amplifying heights just a little bit stronger along the E US than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A 1033 high shows up at hour 90 on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A 1033 high shows up at hour 90 on the GFS we need that, dont we ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A 1033 high shows up at hour 90 on the GFS Yeah, 850s go down from hr. 84-90. Could this re-develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 h5 low closes at 96...so much for a 1005mb overrunning to coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like snow-sleet -ice-rain for NYC. Upstate NY and SNE get pounded. The city gets 0.50-0.75 of frozen QPF before the heavy rains come in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 no redevelopment = ugly ugly solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Looks like snow-sleet -ice-rain for NYC Same for here. At first I thought this would be a colder solution than it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS continues to trend warmer each successive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Surface temps get into the 50s as far north as DC. If this gets any further, we could really torch for a while. That would likely cause major flooding concerns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yes_Probably_Maybe_No Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1.5" of QPF, and probably half of it is rain for PHL. Nice dry slot potential though that could slice those amounts a bit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 There's no reason for this not to cut further NW and completely flood us with 50s and heavy rain due to the +NAO. I'm going with a big rainstorm next week and huge flooding issues. Oh well it was fun while it lasted, now it's time for reality to set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A lot of moisture left behind in the GOF at 120hrs, and another vort running down the base of the through... could it be? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 A lot of moisture left behind in the GOF at 120hrs, and another vort running down the base of the through... could it be? lol OTS. It gets really cold after this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 1.5" of QPF, and probably half of it is rain for PHL. Nice dry slot potential though that could slice those amounts a bit.... Not often do we root for a dry slot but in this case i'll gladly accept a dry slot with the overrunning snow fall then the dry slot would fit perfect so it doesnt flood or wash away the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 There's no reason for this not to cut further NW and completely flood us with 50s and heavy rain due to the +NAO. I'm going with a big rainstorm next week and huge flooding issues. Oh well it was fun while it lasted, now it's time for reality to set in. for this storm or the rest of winter? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 for this storm or the rest of winter? lol The storm, i don't know how the rest of the winter will play out but I see no signs of blocking returning and the PNA is forecast to start trending downward by Feb 10. Interesting stuff in the gulf and off the southeast coast on the gfs after the storm passes. Maybe we should be rooting for the upcoming storm to pass well N and W, then maybe the gulf entity could end up further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Again, not a clue how that sort of low develops in the TN Valley without a closed low, none whatsoever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Sounds like the GFS keeps taking steps towards the Euro, but we still have several days to go, too soon to rule anything out but the trends cann't be ignored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is starting to look like a very bad flooding situation for the I-95. Fortunately, the surface would remain just cold enough to prevent snow melt. Perhaps muh of the snow could absorb the 1 in. of rain. I'm still hoping that it gets wound up early and heads for Detroit as opposed to Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/1996/us0102.php Will just posted this in the SNE thread...notice how the setup is similar and did not yield a low anywhere near as strong as the GFS and many models for that matter want to show now.....the track is more east due to the -NAO however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is starting to look like a very bad flooding situation for the I-95. Fortunately, the surface would remain just cold enough to prevent snow melt. Perhaps muh of the snow could absorb the 1 in. of rain. I'm still hoping that it gets wound up early and heads for Detroit as opposed to Pittsburgh. The problem outside of the city in the burbs is most of the storm drains are covered with feet of snow from plowing - so the roads will become flooded - not from the melting snow as much as from the new rainfall having no place to go on the roads - the snow should absorb musch of the rain especially if we get 6 inches on the front end prior and temps stay in the 30's....the other main concern is roof collapses especially on the flat ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Below freezing into mid Mexico on GFS. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 For this upcoming storm, the PNA is actually positive, AO is positive and the NAO is near neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I guarantee that every model run of every model will bedifferent until sunday at 00Z. Its happened with every storm this winter Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 This is starting to look like a very bad flooding situation for the I-95. Fortunately, the surface would remain just cold enough to prevent snow melt. Perhaps muh of the snow could absorb the 1 in. of rain. I'm still hoping that it gets wound up early and heads for Detroit as opposed to Pittsburgh. Our 2-3" rain equivalent snowpack could easily absorb 1" of rain, so as long as we don't blowtorch, I don't see flooding from heavy rains, apart from the runoff/blocked storm drain angle in urban areas, which could be substantial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I guarantee that every model run of every model will bedifferent until sunday at 00Z. Its happened with every storm this winter Rossi well the off hour 18z's are the only ones left till 0Z sunday or did you actually mean monday at midnight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 is the GEM avalable as yet? Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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