Cheeznado Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The new Euro has 528 thickness for southern CA, 522 to central AZ- this would be a disaster for the vegetable crops and citrus if it verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 The new Euro has 528 thickness for southern CA, 522 to central AZ- this would be a disaster for the vegetable crops and citrus if it verifies. Lower to MId (-4.8ºC at 4 am local) 20sF forecast 2 meter temp in Fresno Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Lower to MId (-4.8ºC at 4 am local) 20sF forecast 2 meter temp in Fresno Thursday morning. Cold but not epic for us here in Baja Arizona. Epic would be like 1913 when PHX hit +16F (and Death Valley +15F) and Tucson hit +6F, or like 1962 when Willcox, a valley location in Cochise County, hit -10F, or like 1949 when it hit -6F in the San Pedro River Valley in Cochise County. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reed Stough Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I am not to prone to go with the model runs this year. Unless they stay pretty consistent for a week, I usually ignore them. They have not be very consistent over the past several weeks. They have calling for a pattern change for the last month and it hasn't happened. But it would not be good if it got that cold for vegatation if it verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 GFS pops out a 31F for Phoenix.. I believe they've been 29F or there abouts already this season... Extended range looks very cool ...something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeleno Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Today was the first time the maximum dropped below 70F in Los Angeles since Jan 11th and if it rains tomorrow it will be the first moisture since Jan 3rd. The ever-present ridge is breaking down enough for a trough to work its way down the West Coast but rainfall predictions are rather anemic for southern California. Cold air behind the front could drop minimums below 40F in metro LA for a few nights but subsidence and offshore wind will likely warm the airmass quickly by mid-week. I hope we can get back into a pattern like December when over 15 inches of rainfall occurred in the foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yea latest (29.00Z) GFS has H85 temps dropping below 0C in Phoenix for next week, which typically means temperatures below freezing. Starting to get a bit late in the winter already though for very significant cold outbreaks as they usually occur about last week of Dec. and first two weeks of Jan. Not to say it can't happen. We also get the lovely UHI that actually provides a positive this time of year - Sky Harbor (official Phoenix station) rarely gets below freezing anymore. Outlying suburbs definitely can though. So near 30 for KPHX is looking possible with lower 20s for the outer burbs (especially the SE Valley). Remote desert locales could even drop into the teens depending on the microscale weather. Some of the big citrus places in far SW Arizona can be "saved" in these events as the strong N-S gradient winds (from the big high moving in) keeps enough motion in the boundary layer to stop temperatures from really dropping off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeleno Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Yea latest (29.00Z) GFS has H85 temps dropping below 0C in Phoenix for next week, which typically means temperatures below freezing. Starting to get a bit late in the winter already though for very significant cold outbreaks as they usually occur about last week of Dec. and first two weeks of Jan. Not to say it can't happen. We also get the lovely UHI that actually provides a positive this time of year - Sky Harbor (official Phoenix station) rarely gets below freezing anymore. Outlying suburbs definitely can though. So near 30 for KPHX is looking possible with lower 20s for the outer burbs (especially the SE Valley). Remote desert locales could even drop into the teens depending on the microscale weather. Some of the big citrus places in far SW Arizona can be "saved" in these events as the strong N-S gradient winds (from the big high moving in) keeps enough motion in the boundary layer to stop temperatures from really dropping off. The 12Z run of the GFS shows considerable warming while the Euro is much colder. The NWS in Los Angeles may be predicting much warmer temps by mid-week than what will actually materialize considering that the GFS appears inconsistent with the other models including HPC. The forecast maximum for Las Vegas is only 44F on Wednesday. If that verifies I can't see how Los Angeles will be in the 70's on the same day. Nonetheless, the optimal period of sub-freezing temps is pretty much over historically for the Southwest by early February but I can recall years where cold episodes occurred as late as March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 00Z MEX has a high of 54 for KPHX Wed and a low Wed Night of 35. In situations like this the MEX guidance under does the amount of cooling by several degrees. I can believe the high of 54 for the date. I'd be going under on the Wed Night low, maybe more like 29-33 at this point. Biggest question will be how strong the winds still are that night. Probably elevated enough to keep things from getting really cold. Thu Night though...... that cold air will still be settling in and the winds will be dying out, I'd expect that to be the coldest night. Continued cold Friday as well with how far south the airmass is penetrating. Looks like my bushes and lemon tree will get another duel with death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Although it might be late in the Winter for PHX to go below freezing (though I seem to remember that Scottsdale got dumped on by snow on April 4, 1999), it certainly isn't for Tucson and especially not for Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties where we had a killing freeze on April 5, 1999 and where we saw lows below freezing on April 30. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I was looking at some of the standardized anomalies with the large low that settles over AZ/NM by mid/late week. 30.00Z NAM 1000-500 thickness is >5 StDev below climatology with MSLP 4-5+ above. Latest MOS guidance gives a high of only 49 for KPHX on Wed (51 from the GFS). That may even be generous. The record low high for Feb 2 is 49 deg (1985), so big potential of setting a new record. MOS lows bottom out Friday, which is what I was thinking earlier when the massive Canadian high would be fully settled in. Clear sky, little wind, low RH and an historically cold airmass will yield very low, maybe record low, temperatures Friday morning. Current record low for KPHX on Feb 4 is 27 deg (1955). More remote desert areas (Casa Grande, Gila Bend, anything on I-8/I-10 west of Phoenix) may even see lows in the teens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 I was looking at some of the standardized anomalies with the large low that settles over AZ/NM by mid/late week. 30.00Z NAM 1000-500 thickness is >5 StDev below climatology with MSLP 4-5+ above. Latest MOS guidance gives a high of only 49 for KPHX on Wed (51 from the GFS). That may even be generous. The record low high for Feb 2 is 49 deg (1985), so big potential of setting a new record. MOS lows bottom out Friday, which is what I was thinking earlier when the massive Canadian high would be fully settled in. Clear sky, little wind, low RH and an historically cold airmass will yield very low, maybe record low, temperatures Friday morning. Current record low for KPHX on Feb 4 is 27 deg (1955). More remote desert areas (Casa Grande, Gila Bend, anything on I-8/I-10 west of Phoenix) may even see lows in the teens! TUS going for low to mid 20's while teens are a given in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties. Pneumonia hollows in those two counties could see single digit lows with near or slightly below zero lows along the San Pedro River and larger washes (yes it has happened before and quite frequently in fact). All proves my long time statement that Cochise County may be southern Arizona, but it's not Banana Country. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 Freeze watch issued for south central deserts (Phoenix west to the Colorado River) Wed, Thu, and Fri mornings. Not sure about Wed. morning, still have the winds and the cold air filtering in. MEX now giving (lower) teens for Douglas Thu/Fri, lower 20s for the East Valley in Phoenix, and lower 20s for Tucson. So record low highs looking very possible Wed., record lows possible Thu and Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Freeze watch issued for south central deserts (Phoenix west to the Colorado River) Wed, Thu, and Fri mornings. Not sure about Wed. morning, still have the winds and the cold air filtering in. MEX now giving (lower) teens for Douglas Thu/Fri, lower 20s for the East Valley in Phoenix, and lower 20s for Tucson. So record low highs looking very possible Wed., record lows possible Thu and Fri. TUS going for 43 for a high Wednesday and 21 for a low Thursday morning-both rather nippy for us. The Bisbee-Douglas airport which is where DUG's observations come from is up the Sulphur Springs Valley from town by about 5+ miles or so. That valley gets some real cold air drainage off the Dragoons/Mules and Chiricahuas and I've seen DUG report as low as +6F in this type of pattern. Have also seen the area around the San Pedro River get as cold as -2F on clear still cold nights. The desert and high valleys of Southern AZ get surprisingly cold at night during the Winter which is why more Border crossers actually die from hypothermia than the heat over the year. Coming from far to the south they are just not able to handle it. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 TUS going for lows as cold as 16F in the colder areas and some parts of town may not even hit 40F Wednesday and Thursday. Single digit lows for colder spots now forecast for the San Pedro Valley ( other valleys in Cochise County and the plain around Sonoita will be at least that cold). That means subzero lows along the river are almost a certainty. Windchill warnings for the mountains of SE AZ for wind chills of -15 to -30F. Freeze warning an wind advisory for around Yuma and the Imperial Valley-there goes the lettuce crop. Not going to be a nice week in AZ. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angeleno Posted February 2, 2011 Share Posted February 2, 2011 Eastern California is also being effected by the cold w/ minimums below freezing for both the Coachella & Imperial valleys. Even some of the low elevation wind-free areas near the coast may reach freezing levels for the next few mornings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 It's now 35F here at the house with 12 hours to go before Sunrise-going to be COLD here tonight. Low last night got into the teens in Cochise County so tonight looks like single digits in some places. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Good call Cheeznado... RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ 510 PM MST WED FEB 2 2011 ...RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN PHOENIX TODAY... THE HIGH TEMPERATURE TODAY AT PHOENIX SKY HARBOR AIRPORT WAS ONLY 44 DEGREES. THIS SET A NEW RECORD FOR THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE ON THIS DATE AND ALSO SET A RECORD FOR THE LOWEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY. THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR FEB 2ND WAS 49 DEGREES SET IN 1985. THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY WAS 46 DEGREES ON FEB 6TH IN 1899 AND ALSO ON FEB 8TH IN 1903. 100+ year old record that just got eclipsed! $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Good call Cheeznado... 100+ year old record that just got eclipsed! $$ Tucson's High today was 39F which is only 2 degrees shy of tying the all time February Low maximum from 1899. Lows tonight and tomorrow night are expected to be in the teens in Tucson, 10-15 degrees along the upper Santa Cruz River Valley down to Nogales and in the single digits in Cochise County with lows as cold as 3F from Douglas north. At a bit over 31 N latitude, Douglas is the furthest south town in the lower 48 west of the Divide. Those temperatures guarantee lows below zero along the San Pedro River. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Strong CAA backdooring into SE AZ from TX as the Arctic High drops southward just east of the Rockies. The current temperature at Elfrida in the Sulphur Springs Valley north of Douglas is 6F which is colder than either Flagstaff or the Grand Canyon both of which are at 8F and considerbaly higher in elevation. Gusty winds making for subzero windchills in Cochise County. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Tucson hit 18F and Douglas 6F both record lows for the date. Some other lows this morning included -3F at Elfrida (at 4200 ft some 2600 ft lower and 300+ miles south of Flagstaff which was -1F), +2 F in Canelo in SE Santa Cruz County, +8F in Bisbee, 10F in Tombstone, +3F from a Cooperative site in NE Sierra Vista-defintely probable below zero readings along the San Pedro River. Libby Airfield on Fort Huachuca hit +5F which is the coldest temperature there since the Post reactivated in 1954 (record low for FHU is +1F in the Old Post area). Gusty Easterly winds with the CAA backdooring from TX, resulted in windchills below -10F in Cochise County. Downsloping saved Tucson from being worse than it was to the East but this morning's windchill at the house was 1.75F. People on the east side of Tucson besides being colder also have the problem that there's a gas outage there so they don't have their furnaces. With the winds dropping off tonight, it's expected to be colder. Mind you, all of these temperatures are occurring in SE AZ with NO snow cover. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gil888 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this part of the cold has really been underplayed-- the crazy cold from ELP westward-- moderate snow into chihuahua mexico-- pretty darn impressive. With all the other historic weather around, it really has slipped under the radar... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 this part of the cold has really been underplayed-- the crazy cold from ELP westward-- moderate snow into chihuahua mexico-- pretty darn impressive. With all the other historic weather around, it really has slipped under the radar... at the bolded...especially considering it's Feb. 2!!! This morning, the low temp in El Paso was 1F (34 degrees below normal)...this absolutely destroys the previous Feb. 3 record low of 16F, set in 1982. Just incredible... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM 250 AM MST THU FEB 3 2011 .SYNOPSIS... RECORD BREAKING COLD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. EL PASO SET NEW RECORD LOWS BOTH YESTERDAY AND THIS MORNING. YESTERDAY`S HIGH TEMPERATURE IN EL PASO WAS THE COLDEST HIGH FOR ANY DAY EVER IN OVER 120 YEARS OF RECORD KEEPING. THE HIGH WAS ONLY 17 DEGREES. THE REGION WILL STAY WELL BELOW FREEZING AGAIN TODAY AND ALMOST 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR MORE SNOW IS OVER AND SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION AS THE UPPER STORM DEPARTS. TONIGHT WILL BE DANGEROUSLY COLD AGAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sctvman Posted February 3, 2011 Share Posted February 3, 2011 Wow, 17 at El Paso for a high? That's crazy. They also had snow during the Sun Bowl. Historic year there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 A revised low for FHU. At 0725 MST this morning they recorded a temperature of +3F only 2 degrees off the ALL TIME record set in January 1913-this is also a February record. It also destroys the argument the Arctic air in the Plains can't make into the Interior West or Southwest as this air came straight out of Texas (El Paso, the name, should give a clue as to how). Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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